[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are subdued following recent upside in oil prices and a hawkish Waller
As of July 14, 2026, T-notes and Bunds face downward pressure from rising energy prices and hawkish central bank outlooks, while JGBs recover on potential policy shifts.
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USTs: -1.5 ticksTrades subdued after retreating yesterday amid rising oil prices and hawkish comments from Fed's Waller, while participants await US CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony scheduled later today.Bunds: -28 ticksRemained pressured as higher energy prices stoked inflationary concerns, while demand is not helped by incoming data and looming supply, including a EUR 6bln Schatz issuance today, followed by EUR 3bln of Bunds tomorrow.JGBs: +29 ticksRebounded from the prior day's trough with the recovery facilitated by comments from Japan's Finance Minister Katayama, who said it is time to consider including JGBs in NISA and that if the environment surrounding asset management changes sharply, a change to GPIF's portfolio could be examined. Furthermore, she hopes to quickly establish details on steps to make Japanese government bonds more attractive, while the attention turns to today's 20yr auction.
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