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BoC MPR: Growth is picking up; Inflation in Canada is expected to ease to about 2.5% in the second half of 2026
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The Bank of Canada maintained rates at 2.25% today, forecasting growth recovery and a return to 2% inflation by early 2027, despite geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty.
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The output gap for the second quarter of 2026 is estimated to be in the range of -1.5% to -0.5%, indicating slightly more excess supply than was anticipated in the April Report (albeit figures unchanged from Q1 estimate) The nominal neutral interest rate in Canada is assumed to be at the midpoint of its estimated 2.25% to 3.25% range. (unchanged) Summary of ProjectionsContributions to average annual real GDP growth
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