Market Analysis
After today's PPI data, Oxford Economics' PCE tracking nowcast points to a 0.15% M/M in headline inflation, still small enough that headline inflation should tick down to 3.6% Y/Y (from 3.7% in June)
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Inflation is expected to moderate slightly with headline PCE at 3.6% Y/Y, while a fragile labor market and steady core inflation support expectations for the FOMC to pause rate changes.
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Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects core PCE inflation to remain near 3.0% Y/Y, as higher energy prices ripple through to consumer goods prices while services inflation slows. Pantheon adds that the absence of spillovers from higher energy prices into services prices, together with a fragile labour market, should ensure that the FOMC keeps policy unchanged for the remainder of the year.
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