[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude edges higher as geopolitics remain tense between US-Iran and Saudi-Houthis

Firmer trade across energy once again as geopolitical tensions remain high, and with hardly any signs of peace between the US and Iran (more details below). WTI Oct resides towards the top of a USD 90.87-94.60/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 88.72-92.17/bbl band), while Brent Nov sits towards the upper end of a USD 96.78-99.15/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.97-98.06/bbl band). Dutch TTF front-month resides just above the EUR 74/MWh mark after finding earlier support at EUR 73/MWh and then resistance at EUR 74.50/MWh. Precious metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the USD underpinned. Spot gold resides towards the bottom of a USD 4,388-4,443/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,381-4,435/oz band), while spot silver sits towards the lower end of a USD 65.69-67.19/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 65.40-66.74/oz band). Base metals are mostly firmer despite the aforementioned crude prices and effect on the USD, with supply concerns and tariff fears cited by desks, alongside ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides near record highs in a current USD 14,511.92-14,636.00/t range. In terms of the main geopolitical updates, Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade. Further, Yemeni forces launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase. Houthi spokesperson warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Energy Minister confirmed that several energy facilities and utilities were hit; are temporarily halting some operations. Further, Tasnim analysis suggests that recent Iranian commentary indicates that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.