OECD projects global growth will slow to 2.8% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025; sees a recovery to 2.7% in 2027 assuming a short-lived conflict in the Middle East

"A persistent conflict extending into 2027 could trigger a sharper slowdown to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into recession." "Sustained energy supply disruptions could add up to 1.3 percentage points to global inflation by 2027, likely forcing central banks to raise interest rates by 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points." US GDP growth is projected at 2.0% in 2026 before slowing to 1.8% in 2027. EZ GDP growth is projected to remain modest at 0.8% in 2026 before picking up to 1.2% in 2027. China’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% this year and 4.3% in 2027.