EUROPEAN OPEN: MAERSKB DC & HLAG GY raise outlooks; RIO LN gets AUD 2.5bln Tomago support; ANTO LN cuts FY26 copper production guidance; ADYEN NA raises growth view, announces acquisitions; PNDORA DC raises revenue/margin outlook

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities start Thursday trading flat/higher. Overnight, APAC stocks were mostly higher, taking their cue from a mild positive handover from Wall Street, where equities were underpinned by earnings, and September rate hike bets were unwound after CPI cooled. Geopolitical updates were thin, leaving traders to focus on stock specific news (see below), as well as data releases, with the US PPI report for July due later today. A White House official said US sanctions and a naval blockade have left Iran completely bankrupt, adding that President Trump has multiple tools available to increase pressure on Tehran in the coming months. Iranian authorities said the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until Iran’s conditions are met; a source told Al-Mayadeen there had been no policy change, warning ships against breaching Iranian procedures, and stating that large vessels cannot safely transit under current conditions. Crude is around flat as traders await progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Brent trades around USD 88.50/bbl, having risen 12% over the last six sessions, while WTI is a little below USD 83/bbl. Gold is trading below USD 4,400/oz after softer US CPI inflation data reduced expectations for further Fed tightening. Reports note that recent gains have also been supported by increased central bank buying, notably from China. Aluminium fell for a second day after Emirates Global Aluminium said it aims to restore pre-war output in Q1 next year; supply concerns also eased after Australia approved AUD 2.5bln in support for the 590K tonne/year Tomago smelter. Prelim UK Q2 GDP growth printed 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.6%), with the annual rate at 1.2% Y/Y (exp. 1.1%, prev. 0.9%). For June, GDP rose 0.3% M/M (exp. 0.0%), and the annual rate rose to 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%, prev. 1.2%). The ONS noted that growth in Q2 slowed after a strong start to 2026 but remained relatively robust. Services were the main driver, led by computer programming and advertising, while construction also grew and production was broadly flat. June services benefited from good weather and sporting events, while manufacturing growth was offset by weaker power generation and sewerage. Analysts note that while the GDP data were stronger than expected overall, June details were weaker, and May was revised down; still, the data does little to alter expectations for an extended BoE hold, but may provide support to policymakers who put forward dovish arguments at the confab. Elsewhere in the UK, former MPC member Minouche Shafik has left her role as chief economic adviser to UK PM Burnham, who declined to retain her. Burnham appointed John Healey as Chancellor, and retained adviser Neil Amin-Smith. He has also received advice from Jim O’Neill, Andy Haldane and Richard Hughes but has not formally announced his top economic advisers. STOCK SPECIFICS: INDUSTRIALS: Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q2 2026 revenue USD 15.76bln (exp. 14.1bln), Q2 EBIT USD 1.57bln (exp. 0.54bln); raised FY26 guidance for adj. EBITDA to USD 10.5-12.5bln, and adj. EBIT of USD 4.5-6.5bln, supported by strong demand and higher freight rates amid Middle East disruptions. Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) Q2 2026 revenue USD 5.84bln (prev. 5.27bln), EBITDA USD 829mln (prev. 820mln), EBIT USD 176mln (prev. 189mln); raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to USD 2.7-3.7bln, sees FY26 EBIT of USD 0.1-1.1bln, while citing significant uncertainty from freight rates and the Middle East conflict. MATERIALS: Australia will provide AUD 2.5bln to keep Rio Tinto’s (RIO LN) Tomago aluminium smelter operating beyond 2028; the package supports a 10-year power deal from 2029-2038, and 3GW of new generation. Tomago will invest at least AUD 1.1bln, with power expected to be fully renewable from 2033. Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2026 revenue USD 4.48bln (prev. 3.8bln), EBITDA USD 2.84bln (prev. 2.23bln), pretax profit USD 2.0bln (prev. 1.16bln); cut FY26 copper production guidance to 625-655K tonnes (from 650-700K) after a July shutdown at Los Pelambres following extreme rains. Thyssenkrupp (TKA GY) raised the lower end of its FY adj. EBIT guidance to EUR 600mln (from EUR 500mln). Q3 adj. EBIT rose to EUR 183mln, with steel benefiting from restructuring, cost cuts and lower raw-material costs, while naval earnings improved on higher-margin submarine orders. TECH: Adyen (ADYEN NA) H1 revenue EUR 1.30bln (exp. 1.29bln), processed volume +24% Y/Y to EUR 803.8bln; adj. EBITDA EUR 641.5mln (exp. 645mln); raised FY26 net revenue growth guidance to 21-23% (from 20-22%); has also agreed to acquire Talon.One for EUR 750mln, and Orb for USD 335mln. Cisco (CSCO) shares fell almost 5% in extended trading despite beating quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, as well as issuing stronger than expected guidance; analysts note that the stock had already rallied sharply on optimism around its growing role in AI infrastructure going into earnings. Coherent (COHR) fell over 2% in extended US trading, despite a quarterly beat and strong outlook, as elevated investor expectations for optical networking suppliers limited the upside. Cerebras Systems (CBRS) shares fell 17% in extended trading after quarterly revenue missed expectations and gross margins declined, raising concerns about scaling and customer adoption, despite higher FY revenue and margin outlooks. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Pandora (PNDORA DC) Q2 revenue DKK 7.22bln (exp. 7.2bln), net income DKK 875mln (exp. 640mln); raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 0-3% (from -1 to 2%) and EBIT margin guidance to 22-23% (from 21-22%), partly reflecting a US tariff refund. Entain (ENT LN) H1 2026 net gaming revenue growth +5%, underlying EBITDA -2% Y/Y at GBP 479mln (exp. 455mln). World Cup engagement and cost cuts helped offset higher UK gambling taxes. Backed its FY26 online NGR growth guidance of 5-7%. Of note for EV makers, sales of battery-electric and plug-in hybrids rose 9% Y/Y to 1.85mln units in July, driven by robust growth in Europe while sales weakened in China and North America, according to BMI. Of note for UK homebuilders, the RICS house price balance held at -30 in July (exp. -30; prev. -32), as the housing market remained subdued. The report notes that declines were sharpest in London and southern England. In the rental sector, tenant demand weakened and landlords reduced rental listings. Near-term sales expectations improved for a fourth consecutive month to -14%, however, while the 12-month outlook edged up to +3. UTILITIES: RWE (RWE GY) H1 adj. EBITDA EUR 3.0bln (prev. 2.1bln), adj. net income EUR 1.3bln (prev. 0.8bln), adj. EPS EUR 1.77 (prev. 1.08); confirmed its EUR 1.32/shr dividend target, and expects adj. EPS to grow by an average 10% annually through 2031. HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYN GY) said China’s NMPA has accepted for review its application for aflibercept 8mg to treat macular oedema following retinal vein occlusion. Zealand Pharma (ZEAL DC) H1 2026 revenue DKK 4.53bln (prev. 9.10bln), operating profit DKK 3.32bln (prev. 7.93bln), net profit of DKK 3.52bln (prev. 7.24bln); maintained FY26 guidance. Separately, it agreed to sell most rusfertide economics to Royalty Pharma for USD 100mln, retaining a 0.25% royalty above USD 1.5bln of annual global sales. FINANCIALS: EQT Infrastructure (EQT SS) offered to acquire Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AT) for AUD 3.13/shr in cash, valuing the company at about AUD 6.9bln; Cleanaway’s board intends to recommend that shareholders accept the offer. EX-DIVIDENDS: Going ex-div today: Pershing Square (PSH LN), Babcock (BAB LN), GSK (GSK LN), Rio Tinto (RIO LN), Aberdeen (ABDN LN), Shell (SHEL LN), Rentokil (RTO LN), London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN), Haleon (HLN LN), IG Group (IGG LN), NatWest (NWG LN), Melrose (MRO LN), Pearson (PSON LN), IMI (IMI LN), BP (BP/ LN), HSBC (HSBA LN), Fresnillo (FRES LN), Hiscox (HSX LN), Tritax Big Box (BBOX LN). NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: TKMS (TKMS GY) upgraded at Bernstein; Aviva (AV/ LN) upgraded at JPMorgan. Legal & General (LGEN LN) downgraded at JPMorgan and Autonomous Research; M&G (MNG LN) downgraded at JPMorgan; Deutsche Post (DHL GY) downgraded at Citi; Lanxess (LXS GY) downgraded at Berenberg. DAY AHEAD: DATA: In Europe, Eurozone industrial production is seen -0.1% M/M (prev. -0.2%) and -0.8% Y/Y (prev. -1.2%). In North America, US July PPI headline is expected to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate easing to 4.9% Y/Y (prev. 5.5%); the core rate of PPI is seen +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%), and the annual rate is seen falling to 4.2% Y/Y (prev. 4.7%). Weekly US initial jobless claims are seen ticking up a touch to 202K (prev. 199K), while continuing claims are seen relatively unchanged at 1.8mln (prev. 1.801mln). CENTRAL BANKS: Norges Bank expected to hold its policy rate at 4.25%; Norges Bank’s Bache speaks post-announcement. Today’s Fedspeak includes Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter, hawk) who will participate in a moderated Q&A; Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) speaks on policy and the economy. EARNINGS: Notable US listed companies reporting today include: Applied Materials (AMAT), JD.com (JD), Tapestry (TPR). SUPPLY: US sells USD 25bln of 30-year bonds. ENERGY: EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +33bcf). US PPI (13:30BST/08:30EDT): Analysts expect headline PPI to rise by 0.2% M/M in July (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate cooling to 4.9% Y/Y (from 5.5%). Core PPI is seen +0.3% M/M, picking up from a prior 0.2%, though the annual rate is seen falling to 4.2% Y/Y (from 4.7%). On Wednesday, CPI data for July was in line with expectations, showing a cooling vs June, which helped trim some Fed hike bets. With the PPI and CPI in hand, econometricians will be able to gauge how the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE (due 26th August), will look; writing after the CPI release, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they initially expect July core PCE to rise 0.23% M/M, noting that upcoming methodology changes could create volatility in PCE readings and lower annual core inflation; Pantheon Macroeconomics sees July’s core PCE rising 0.16% M/M, while Oxford Economics sees 0.2% M/M. The projections will be revised after the PPI release.