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Global Economy

Berenberg now expects the ECB deposit rate to reach 3% by mid-2029 (vs prev. view of 2028; vs the current 2.25%)

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Says a temporary US-Iran agreement lowering energy costs could push Eurozone inflation below 2% in early 2027, potentially delaying ECB tightening until end-2028 Says that after that, demographic-driven labour-supply declines should lift wages and prompt renewed hiking

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Geopolitics

Gulf official tells CNN “50:50” chance US and Iran could reach deal by Friday, CNN reports; Iranian delegation does not include IRGC, which would need to sign off on details of provisional agreement

Geopolitics

The draft agreed to by Iranian and Omani negotiators awaits final approval from Iran’s supreme leader, two regional officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday

U.S. Economy

US ADP Employment Change (Jul) 44K vs. Exp. 70K (Prev. 98K)