European Earnings Preview: ASML (ASML NA) to report Q1'2026 results on 15th April; analysts expect an upgrade to current sales forecast

ASML (ASML NA) is expected to report its Q1 2026 results on Wednesday at 06:00 BST; an investor call, where both its CEO and CFO will start at 14:00 BST. Options markets indicate earnings-related volatility of around 5.5% in either direction. Focus for this report will be on any updates to guidance, where analysts at both Citi and UBS expect the chip-maker to raise its sales forecast to the upper end of its current guidance. It currently forecasts FY 2026 sales between EUR 34-39bln. That aside, investors will look at how the Co. describes the AI environment, and whether it still sees a strong demand environment. Elsewhere, investors will be cognizant of the Middle East situation, particularly given the supply constraints to helium, which is a key material used to make AI chips. Finally, there may also be some focus on reports earlier in the month, which suggested that US lawmakers will propose a crackdown on chip tool sales to China. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the Co. has already sounded cautiousness surrounding China, which “embeds” some of the uncertainty. It is also worth highlighting that ASML will no longer publish quarterly orders, which have long been used to give an indication of consumer demand; therefore, investors will look towards broader metrics such as sales. Weightings: 3.67% in STOXX 600; 7.50% in Euro Stoxx 50; 32.61% in STXE 600 (Tech); ASML Earnings Expectations (EUR): Sales: 8.69bln (prev. 7.75bln Y/Y, prev. guided 8.2-8.9bln) Gross Profit: 4.54bln (prev. 4.18bn Y/Y) Gross Margin: 52.2% (prev. 54% Y/Y, prev. guided 51-53%) Net Profit: 2.58bln (prev. 2.36bln Y/Y)