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TSMC (TSM/2330 TT) Q3 guidance (USD): revenue at 44.6-45.8bln (exp. 42.6bln); gross margin 66-67% (exp. 65.9%), 2026 capex 60-64bln (prev. saw 52-56bln)

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TSMC issued bullish Q3 guidance and raised its 2026 capex and revenue forecasts, citing explosive AI demand and aggressive global expansion in advanced nodes and packaging.

News detail

Notes "very" strong demand for leading-edge technologies Do not foresee a bottleneck for the capacity expansion plan. Expect continued strong demand in Q3. Challenge due to rising component prices. AI related demand is extremely robust. Customers and their customers provide us with very strong signals and outlook. Expect FY26 revenue to be slightly above 40% in USD terms (prev. fcst above 30%) AI is driving CPU demand in data centres. To invest another USD 100bln into Arizona, USA; will be for N2 and below tech and packaging; will continue to invest in Taiwan;  building 13 leading-edge packaging fabs in Taiwan in the next few years; increasing mature node capacity in Japan; will be "many" fabs in Arizona, "maybe" an additional four more to be built. A14 development is on track; production from 2028; A12, 13 volume production from 2029. Strong conviction in AI megatrend. Capex in the next three years will be "significantly" higher than the past three years.  Packaging capacity is tight; working hard to shorten gap between demand and capacity for advanced packaging. Up to 2030, demand will be very strong.  Not concerned about customer concentration. Will not abruptly raise prices. New few years will be vrey good business.

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