EUROPEAN OPEN: BMPS IM explores BAMI IM & G IM bids as alternative to ISP IM; EQT SS Kakaku bid faces opposition; CARLB DC guides FY26 op profit growth below exps; BA/ LN wins US Navy contract; TUI1 GY notes strong recent bookings

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities are starting the midweek session flat/mixed. Overnight, APAC stocks were mostly lower following the tech-led declines stateside, as yields remained elevated, and oil prices continued to edge higher amid the ongoing geopolitical stalemate. The global semi selloff deepened; South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled before paring losses, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each falling sharply, as rising bond yields weighed on chip names. Japan’s Nikkei fell for a second day as higher bond yields weighed on AI-related stocks, with Kioxia and Furukawa Electric among the biggest decliners. US Treasury futures stabilised, with the long-end seeing modest gains, following recent losses. The stabilisation comes ahead of the Fed’s July meeting minutes, due to be released later today (preview below), and Chair Warsh’s appearance at Jackson Hole next week, where traders will look for clues on the policy path. Gold edged higher as easing US bond selling reduced pressure after Tuesday’s decline; bullion trades around USD 4,340/oz, though analysts note that uncertainty over US-Iran relations and higher energy-led inflation remain potential headwinds. Copper was flat overnight, though reports note that the backwardation between immediate and three-month delivery eased to USD 248/ton (vs as much as USD 545 on Monday). Bloomberg notes that LME copper inventories available to buyers rose by more than 20,000 tons on Tuesday, the largest single-day jump since April, easing a historic supply squeeze; Trafigura was behind a significant share of the deliveries. Crude prices are higher for a fourth day, with Brent rising towards USD 92/bbl and WTI near USD 85/bbl, as the US-Iran conflict showed no sign of resolution, and as Iran fired two ballistic missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz striking a bulk carrier east of Oman. Elsewhere, weekly API data reported a modest draw in crude stockpiles. President Trump ordered top administration envoys to halt conversations with Iran, with White House officials signalling a strategic shift from seeking rapid military victory to a longer-term economic strangulation approach, CNN reports. Meanwhile, Politico said that while Trump is waiting for Iran to capitulate to economic pressure, Tehran may be prepared to outlast the effort. In data releases, UK CPI rose by 0.3% M/M in July (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.1%), with the annual rate jumping to 2.9% Y/Y (exp. 2.9%, prev. 2.6%); the core measure rose by 0.2% M/M (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.3%), leaving the annual rate at 2.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.5%, prev. 2.6%); the CPI services figure, however, eased to 3.4% Y/Y (prev. 3.6%). The data was broadly as expected, driven mainly by higher energy bills, while easing services inflation suggested domestic price pressures were cooling; ahead, Middle East-related energy pressures could push inflation higher, making any potential BoE rate cuts more difficult, and perhaps even reviving pressure for hikes. STOCK SPECIFICS: INDUSTRIALS: BAE Systems (BA/ LN) was awarded a USD 169.22mln US Navy contract modification to exercise options for MK 41 Vertical Launching System canisters and ancillary equipment; the contract includes purchases for the US, Australia, Japan and the Netherlands under the Foreign Military Sales programme. Geberit (GEBN SW) H1 revenue CHF 1.71bln (exp. 0.81bln), EBITDA CHF 529mln (prev. 514mln Y/Y), EBIT CHF 450mln (prev. 433mln Y/Y). For Q2, revenue was CHF 838mln (exp. 810mln), EBITDA CHF 246.1mln (exp. 238mln); sees FY26 net sales growth between 5-6%, and an EBITDA margin around prior-year levels. FLSmidth (FLS DC) Q2 revenue DKK 3.94bln (exp. 3.57bln), order intake DKK 4.03bln (vs prev. 3.52bln Y/Y), EBITA DKK 699mln (prev. 522mln Y/Y); narrows FY26 guidance, now sees organic revenue growth between 0-4% (prev. guided -1 to 4%), and adj. EBITA margins between 16.0-16.5% (prev. guided 15.5-16.5%). ENERGY: The tanker Monte Lema, which carries 400k bbls of heavy fuel oil from Venezuela, has reportedly finished loading oil for BP (BP/ LN). CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Carlsberg (CARLB DC) H1 revenue DKK 47.1bln (exp. 47.1bln), EBIT DKK 7.45bln (exp. 7.55bln), net profit DKK 4.29bln (exp. 4.3bln); volumes 48.4mln hl (exp. 78.6mln hl). Sees FY26 organic operating profit growth of between 4-6% (exp. 5.34%, prev. guided 2-6%). CEO: said it saw sustained progress on its key strategic priorities, with particularly strong growth for soft drinks and alcohol-free brews. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: TUI (TUI1 GY) CEO notes that the company had strong bookings over the last few weeks. FINANCIALS: BMPS (BMPS IM) CEO is reportedly working on two share-swap offers for Banco BPM (BAMI IM) and Generali (G IM) as an alternative to an Intesa (ISP IM) takeover, Il Sole reports; the board has reportedly not been informed of the plan. Oasis Management, which owns 19.5% of Kakaku, urged the company to withdraw support for EQT’s (EQT SS) JPY 3,570/shr bid, or seek a price above Bain Capital and LY Corp’s JPY 3,640 offer; Oasis added that it will not tender into EQT’s bid, intensifying the takeover battle. HEALTHCARE: Novartis (NOVN SW) announced that its Iptacopan has received orphan drug designation from the US FDA for treating atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome. TECH: Small batches of Nvidia’s (NVDA) H200 chips have been allowed to enter mainland China, with ByteDance and Tencent (TCEHY) having received about 10k H200 processors in recent weeks, while other Chinese tech firms could get similar approvals soon, according to the FT. Keysight Technologies (KEYS) shares rose 2% in extended US trading after quarterly earnings and revenue beat, and its guided Q4 above expectations, reflecting strong momentum across its end markets. NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Johnson Matthey (JMAT LN) downgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux. Kingspan (KGP LN) upgraded at UBS. DAY AHEAD: EVENTS: President Trump delivers remarks with tech leaders at 14:30EDT/19:30BST. DATA: In Europe, final Eurozone CPI for July is seen at 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 2.8%), and core at 2.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%); Eurozone current account (prev. EUR 25.1bln sa). In North America, weekly MBA mortgage applications data are due. CENTRAL BANKS: FOMC releases July meeting minutes (see below for preview). Fed's Musalem (2028 voter) will give an interview to CNBC. ECB President Lagarde participates in a panel on the global economic outlook (text is expected), and gives separate lunch remarks. SUPPLY: Germany auctions EUR 6bln of 2036 Bunds; US sells USD 16bln of 20yr bonds. ENERGY: Weekly DoE energy inventory data are due; afterhours on Tuesday, API weekly data reportedly showed crude -0.3mln bbls, Cushing -1.4mln bbls, gasoline +1.1mln bbls, distillate -2.8mln bbls. EARNINGS: Notable earnings reports due today include: Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Target (TGT), Estee Lauder Companies (EL), Nordson (NDSN), Coty (COTY). PREVIEW - FOMC MINUTES (19:00BST/14:00EDT): The FOMC minutes will be watched for signs of how widely hawkish views were shared at July’s meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but three regional presidents dissented in favour of a 25bps hike. Attention will focus on whether other officials also saw a case for tighter policy, particularly amid concerns that supply pressures and strong AI-related investment could sustain inflation. Broader support for the dissenters could keep a September hike in play; markets currently assign roughly a 65% probability to another hold in September. Data since the meeting have strengthened the case for patience; July CPI and PPI were softer, while payroll growth weakened and previous months were revised lower, both reinforcing expectations that the Fed may remain on hold despite inflation staying above target. The minutes may therefore have limited market impact because they pre-date significant new data. Investors may also be more focussed on Chair Warsh’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole next week, as well as the next inflation and employment reports ahead of the September meeting. Newsquawk’s full FOMC minutes preview is here.