PREVIEW: CBRT Policy announcement due at 12:00BST/07:00EDT

Consensus is for the CBRT hold its key rate at 37.0%, though several banks hold a view that the MPC will opt to tighten by 300bps to 40.0% as the MPC's reluctance to hike is weighed against continued Middle East-related energy pressures.  At its last meeting, the CBRT left rates unchanged at 37%, in line with market expectations. Since then, PPI inflation data came in mixed, though cooling on a monthly basis. Political instability has also accelerated lira depreciation despite energy benchmarks easing from recent highs. Against this backdrop, banks are split on their rate calls.  BofA expects the bank to keep rates on hold, citing recent de-escalation attempts in the Gulf region and the MPC's efforts to preserve stability. However, BofA does not rule out tightening, saying a 300bps increase in the benchmark rate would be a possible alternative, "providing the CBRT with additional buffer in the event of a material deterioration in sentiment or reserve losses tied to domestic or geopolitical developments." JPMorgan expects the CBRT to hike the repo rate by 300bps to 40% in a bid to shore up the TRY amid recent geopolitical and domestic political developments.  UBS highlights that the CBRT has threatened its ability to employ rate hikes and use FX reserves to stabilise the currency. ING said there is a possibility of a rate hike if they believed pressure on FX reserves intensified.