[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD flat, AUD weaker after RBA's Bullock fails to convince market of immediate tightening

Mixed action across G10s; GBP stabilises around 1.33 after losses, CAD ekes gains as USD/CAD looks to return to 1.41, while AUD and NOK are the clear underperformers. USD lacks direction against most G10 peers with a lack of US-specific catalysts into what markets are increasingly believing will be a live meeting. Desks incl. Citadel expect the Fed to raise rates by 25bps this week, arguing that a surprise rate increase would reinforce Fed Chair Warsh’s commitment to fighting inflation. The meeting has around 30% implied probability of a hike. STIRS are steady and have been pricing this probability of tightening since the US-Iran conflict reignited, though with Crude benchmarks sharply lower over the past 36 hours, pricing (and the Buck) have not extended to display further tightening bets. The session ahead sees ADP's weekly jobs numbers, consumer confidence and the advance goods trade balance alongside a few other data points. For now, DXY resides just above the 101.50 mark, should look to test recent 101.80 highs should further tightening bets be added. AUD gradually weakened against USD from just below 0.70 to a 0.6963 base with losses coinciding with remarks from RBA Governor Bullock. Within her speech, nothing stood out to be dovish, however, some, incl. MUFG frame the speech as "refraining from sending a strong signal", likely referring to her remark "Don't know what the board will decide at next meeting". Following the speech, markets assign a 21% probability of RBA tightening in August, a cumulative 20bps by year-end.  Elsewhere, NOK underperforms as oil benchmarks continue to post losses (Brent Oct'26 -2.4%), the Scandi cross looking to return to par, not seen since the 20th. Session low of 1.001.