[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude holds an upward bias as geopolitics show no signs of abating; metals subdued

WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures eke out mild gains, with prices continuing to be underpinned by the Middle Eastern situation, which shows no signs of abating. The former resides in a current USD 95.37-97.79/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.76-96.93/bbl range) whilst the latter trades in a USD 100.19-101.94/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 98.80-101.87/bbl parameter). Upside is somewhat capped by the delayed Private Inventory report, which showed a smaller draw than expected, with the DoE slated for today on account of Monday’s US holiday. Dutch TTF front-month has mounted EUR 80/MWh after finding an earlier base just above EUR 78/MWh, with prices continuing to be underpinned by Middle East supply woes alongside heating demand heading out of summer. Metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the complex capped from a growth perspective, although participants await fresh drivers. Ahead, the ECB is unlikely to sway metals much, although US PPI could have an impact, particularly on precious metals. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,389-4,435/oz range after finding support near yesterday’s USD 4,434/oz high. Note that yesterday, the bullion found support at its 100 DMA (today at 4,340/oz). 3M LME copper trades around record highs in a current USD 14,742.65- 14,870.78/t range. In terms of geopolitics, US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and that they will win the war with Iran, while Iran said they are ready for a more intense war if required. Several explosions were heard yesterday in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, while an oil tanker was reportedly being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Houthis attacked Saudi cities with ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes in Yemen. Pakistan's Foreign Minister said that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement, but when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.