[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 95: Trump sees possible agreement within a week as Lebanon tensions threaten talks

OVERVIEW Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that he believes an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next week. Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources. Lebanon emerged as a major issue, with Iran warning that continued Israeli actions could impact negotiations. NEGOTIATIONS Iran’s final text is still being discussed in Tehran and no response has been sent yet, Mehr News reported citing sources. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Iran had requested continued Pakistani mediation efforts to support de-escalation and the ceasefire. A US source told Al Hadath that Lebanon’s position helped convince Israel not to expand military escalation. The source said Washington was working to prevent the collapse of the negotiation track between Lebanon and Israel. The source added that negotiations had moved from preliminary contacts to security arrangements. TRUMP US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace. Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week. Trump said a peace agreement with Iran could be better than a military victory. Trump said both sides were getting what they need but that a few points still needed to be resolved. Trump told NBC News he had not heard from Iran regarding reports that Tehran was suspending talks. Trump said “going silent would be very good” and added that the Strait of Hormuz blockade would remain in place. Trump said he could “wait as long as they want” because Iran was “losing a fortune”. Trump told CNBC he did not care if negotiations with Iran were over. Trump said he was not concerned about oil prices despite Iranian media reports that Tehran was threatening to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and halt negotiations. Trump said he expected oil prices to fall sharply. Trump said he had a very productive call with Netanyahu and that there would be no troops going into Beirut. Trump said Hezbollah agreed that all shooting would stop. Trump posted that he asked Netanyahu not to carry out a major raid on Beirut and that Netanyahu turned troops around. Trump said he also spoke with representatives of Hezbollah and that both sides agreed to stop shooting. Axios reported Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon during a phone call. IRAN COMMENTARY Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and for ceasefire violations committed by Israel in Lebanon. Iran said a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts. Iran said it would continue using all capabilities and exercise its right to self-defence whenever necessary. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said talks will halt if Israeli actions persist in Lebanon. Ghalibaf warned Iran would confront Israel if atrocities in Lebanon continue. Supreme Leader adviser Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz was under Iran’s management and that Tehran would not allow the blockade to continue. Rezaei warned Iran would not tolerate increased tensions in Lebanon and said the patience of Iran’s armed forces had limits. An IRGC commander said Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza could lead the resistance axis to equate traffic conditions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with those in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Central Military Command warned residents in northern Israel to evacuate if Israel attacks Beirut. The IRGC reported targeting a US-owned commercial vessel with a cruise missile, according to Al Jazeera. ISRAEL / LEBANON Israel reportedly planned a major strike in Beirut’s Dahieh district, although the operation was postponed following US intervention, according to Kann News. Israeli army will not carry out attacks in Beirut and will not withdraw from its current positions, according to Al Araby citing the official broadcasting authority. A Hezbollah lawmaker said the group supports a full ceasefire across all Lebanese territory. The lawmaker said a full ceasefire should be followed by a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. AFP, citing a source close to Hezbollah, reported Hezbollah would not stop targeting northern Israel following Israeli threats to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs. A source close to Yemen’s Houthis said they would not allow Lebanon to be attacked and Hezbollah to fight alone. UN Secretary-General Guterres proposed a new force to replace UNIFIL in southern Lebanon, according to i24's Amichai Stein.