FedIMPORTANT

Fed keeps rates on hold as expected at 3.50-3.75%; removes forward guidance completely; Statement approved in 12-0 vote; Says "The Committee will deliver price stability"

News detail

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability. SEP's below:Federal Funds Rate  2026: 3.8% (exp. 3.625%, prev. 3.4%) 2027: 3.6% (exp. 3.375%, prev. 3.1%) 2028: 3.4% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.1%) Longer run: 3.1% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.1%) Change in Real GDP  2026: 2.2% (exp. 2.2%, prev. 2.4%) 2027: 2.3% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.3%) 2028: 2.2% (exp. 2.1%, prev. 2.1%) Longer run: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Unemployment Rate  2026: 4.3% (exp. 4.4%, prev. 4.4%) 2027: 4.3% (exp. 4.3%, prev. 4.3%) 2028: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%) Longer run: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%) PCE Inflation  2026: 3.6% (exp. 3.5%, prev. 2.7%) 2027: 2.3% (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.2%) 2028: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Longer run: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Core PCE Inflation  2026: 3.3% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 2.7%) 2027: 2.5% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.2%) 2028: 2.1% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Distribution of dots for 2026: Three hikes, 4.375%: 1 (prev. 0) Two hikes, 4.125%, 5 (prev. 0) One Hike, 3.875%: 3 (prev. 0) Unchanged, 3.625%: 8 (prev. 7) One Cut, 3.375%: 1 (prev. 7) Two Cuts, 3.125%: 0 (prev. 2) Three cuts, 2.875%: 0 (prev. 2) Four cuts, 2.625%: 0 (prev. 1)

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