[ANALYSIS] SCOTUS opinions due at 15:00GMT/10:00EST; once again, we do not know in advance whether tariffs will be covered or not

Any opinions released are typically announced from the bench shortly after 10:00EST/15:00GMT, with written decisions posted soon afterwards.What the tariff case is about Trump imposed "Liberation Day" tariffs on 2nd of April 2025, of some 10–50% on most imports, along with targeted levies on China, Canada, and Mexico. Trump relied on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), arguing trade deficits and fentanyl trafficking constituted a national emergency. Lower courts ruled that Trump exceeded his statutory authority, and his administration appealed those decisions to the Supreme Court. Trump has called the upcoming ruling "one of the most important ever" and warned that losing the power to tariff would be a "terrible blow" to national security. Betting Market Odds on the Supreme Court ruling in favour of Trump tariffs Kalshi: 22% chance (vs ~48% just before November 5th oral arguments). Polymarket: 24% chance (vs ~40% just before November 5th oral arguments). Signals from oral arguments During arguments on November 5th, both conservative and liberal justices expressed scepticism that IEEPA authorises tariffs of this scale. The questioning pointed to concern about excessive presidential power and the use of an emergency statute for routine trade policy. Impact & Workarounds A ruling against Trump would clarify limits on presidential tariff authority, and potentially narrow future use of emergency powers. That being said, from a tariff perspective, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and other officials have signalled that the admin can "recreate" the tariff structure using alternative routes if IEEPA is struck down. Proposed workarounds include Section 301 to target “unfair” practices, Section 232 to justify tariffs on national-security grounds (e.g., critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, wind turbines), Section 122 as a temporary 15% “bridge” tariff (for up to 150 days) to address balance-of-payments pressures, and a broader strategy of combining existing laws to backfill any tariffs invalidated under IEEPA.