Fed Chair Warsh says "if we get policy right, and we will, inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past'
Fed Chair Warsh is initiating a major policy shift focused on ending the inflation surge, prioritizing interest rates over balance sheet tools, and increasing data-dependency while ending forward guidance.
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Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. Household consumption growth is moderate; manufacturing output has moved up steadily this year. Housing sector continues to lag. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, showing resilience in the face of recent developments. Don’t know the extent to which the economy will benefit from AI buildout. Most striking feature of the economy right now is business investment, which appears to be accelerating and reflects AI projects and spending. Productivity growth has been strong, predating gains from AI adoption. Labour market appears broadly stable. Fed is monitoring implications for inflation and labour market. Have a duty to take a fresh look at current practices to make sure we are serving our objectives. Purpose of task forces is to equip Fed to make better monetary policy decisions, put years of high inflation behind them. Job creation has kept pace with workforce; unemployment rate is low and has changed little over the past year; seeing relatively few layoffs; solid growth in nominal wages. Balance sheet task force will probe advantages and disadvantages of ample reserves regime and explore alternatives.
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