[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices take a breather while metals surge as geopolitical updates remain light and DXY falls ahead of the weekend

WTI and Brent futures trade on a softer footing amid a pullback from yesterday’s surge, and as geopolitical headlines quieten down, for now, heading into the weekend. Major updates have been light this morning. Reports via the Jerusalem Post suggested security officials see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Meanwhile, the report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume. Near-term catalysts remain dependent on US-Iran developments, with the next inflection points likely coming from any surprise weekend military action, Iran’s response to US economic pressure, or any updates on diplomacy. WTI Oct currently resides around session lows in a USD 85.95-86.94/bbl range, after printing USD 85.23-87.69/bbl range yesterday. Brent Oct sits in a USD 92.97-94.00/bbl range after printing a USD 91.47-94.71/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF, conversely, keeps rising, with European storage replenishment also on traders’ minds. Dutch TTF has risen to a current high above EUR 66.50/MWh from levels under EUR 65/MWh earlier this morning. Metals are higher across the board and are cheering continued weakness in the USD, with woes for the Buck this week compounded by the mid-week US Treasury buyback announcement. Spot gold found support at its 200 DMA (USD 4,514/oz) and currently trades towards the top of a USD 4,509-4,589/oz range, with the next upside level the psychological USD 4,600/oz. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 68.50/oz) and eyes USD 70/oz to the upside in a USD 67.91-69.92/oz range. Base metals are similarly firmer across the board, with 3M LME copper towards the upper end of a USD 14,050.90-14,194.08/t.