Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 4th September 2026

Norway's sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT. US equity futures mixed; Volkswagen benefits after the approval of cost-cutting plan. USD slightly firmer heading into the jobs report; JPY gives back some of Thursday's gains. Fixed income benchmarks muted; USTs unfazed following the FT report that Norway may reduce holdings. Energy benchmarks softer amid light geopolitical updates. Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug). SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% DAX40 U/C Stoxx 600 +0.1% FTSE 100 -0.1% ES Sep'26 U/C RTY Sep'26 -0.1% NQ Sep'26 +0.4% YM Sep'26 -0.1% FX DXY +0.1% (99.07) EUR/USD U/C (1.1623) USD/JPY +0.4% (156.35) GBP/USD U/C (1.3529) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +1 tick Bund Sep'26 +4 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.752% German 10yr Yield 3.346% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 -0.6% Brent Nov'26 -0.3% Spot Gold -0.1% LME Copper +0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.3% Ethereum +0.7% As of 10:40BST / 05:40EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses start the final trading session of the week on the backfoot, albeit only modestly. Focus will be on the US jobs report, with NFP expected at 58k. Although this data point is key for the Fed, most policymakers will be focused on the inflation print expected in a week's time. Sectors lack a clear bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Autos rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Media, following Vivendi earnings (see more below), with Chemicals and Banks following behind. The biggest story of the morning came from Volkswagen (+6.2%), after the Co.'s supervisory board approved a plan that would include an additional 50k job cuts. US equity futures are mixed, with clear outperformance in the NQ. After-hours, Lululemon (-17.9% pre-market) reported poor metrics, in which revenue missed expectations, comparable sales declined, and the company sharply cut its Q3 and FY outlooks, citing weaker North American demand, inconsistent product response and a slow start to the current quarter. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Mixed action across G10FX where there is no real bias. Stealing leads for no particular reason, JPY lags after large gains this week. Choppy USD action this morning which sees EUR/USD within a narrow 15 pip range and DXY flat into NFP. Some broad based, but modest USD upside was seen after the EU cash open, lifting DXY from 99.00 to a high just below 99.10 with EUR and GBP pairs sent to lows. While NFP is the highlight of the day, officials’ keen eye on inflation will be the deciding factor in the Fed’s September meeting, especially after Waller’s remarks on Thursday. With a 25bps ECB hike next week fully priced, EUR will likely remain at the whim of the Buck into Payrolls. Focus will be on the first of three significant state elections in September, Saxony. Polling has AfD clearly in the lead with 40-43% of the vote; if materialised, will add to the pressure on the German Grand coalition nationally, though not change the power balance or impact economic/fiscal policy. Lane did not add anything, given ECB is in blackout. EUR/USD choppy, but found support at 1.1620. GBP saw some weakness on the DMP which showed easing 1yr inflation expectations, though the reaction was limited to around ten pips and Sterling is still the best G10 performer with BoE’s Bailey not providing commentary on monetary policy. Cable’s 1.3550 will likely provide resistance to further Cable gains absent an NFP surprise. JPY is the underperformer today as it pulls back from recent gains of over 3% vs. the Buck. The pair bottomed at 155.22 and now lies just above 156.00. FIXED INCOME Global fixed benchmarks trade with mild gains after initially holding in the red early morning. USTs (+1 tick) trades tentatively heading into US NFP, whilst Bunds (+4 ticks) and Gilts (+6 ticks) post modest gains. Overnight, JGBs (+30 ticks) posted decent gains, tracking the advances made in USTs on Thursday; a couple of decent auctions earlier in the week, and speculation surrounding the GPIF upping its allocation in domestic bonds have also boosted sentiment. USTs currently trade at the upper end of a 107-17 to 107-23+ range, at levels more-or-less similar to the week’s open. Focus this morning has been on an FT article which suggested that Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has proposed cutting government bonds to 50% of its bond portfolio (from 70%). The fund now aims to look at other types of debt to try to boost returns. The piece suggests that its allocation to Gilts would remain unchanged, whilst its position in JGBs would rise by 2.8%. On the flip side, a Reuters report suggested that some Chinese commercial banks have upped their purchases of USTs in recent months. Bunds and Gilts are incrementally firmer this morning. German benchmarks specifically, focus is on the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election. The far-right AfD are expected to win, but attention will be on whether it can achieve an absolute majority. This is because other major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD. Even if the AfD does fall short, the CDU will face the issue of forming a new coalition, potentially leading to political instability and hence reducing confidence in German debt. For UK specifically, focus will be on a speech from BoE Governor Bailey. Elsewhere, the BoE DMP saw the 1-year-ahead expectation fall to 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), spurring mild strength in Gilts. Norway's sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT. Some Chinese commercial banks have raised US dollar deposit rates above 3% and subsequently increased purchases of US Treasuries in recent months, according to sources. Australia sells AUD 800mln in 4.75% October 2037 Bonds b/c 3.21x, avg. yield 5.2133. COMMODITIES WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are softer intraday amid a lack of notable geopolitical updates overnight to shift the dial. The former resides in a USD 90.38-92.17/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 89.57-93.14/bbl), and the latter in a USD 94.81-96.21/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s 84.03-97.62/bbl). Over the weekend, the OPEC+ JMMC is scheduled to meet, with market sources suggesting no changes will be made to October's overall output targets as the committee focuses broadly on market conditions and member compliance. Metals are also trading broadly flat/firmer intraday amid as drivers remain light ahead of the US jobs report. The consensus expects the US economy to have added 58K nonfarm payrolls in August, analysts say that a payrolls print close to expectations alongside a steady unemployment rate would be consistent with a stable labour market that is cooling but not deteriorating sharply, and that should keep policymakers focused on the inflation side of the mandate. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,460-4,491/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s parameter (USD 4,381-4,511/oz) and in between its 200 DMA (USD 4,534/oz) and 100 DMA (USD 4,355/oz). Spot silver is flat just under its 100 DMA (67.52/oz), in a current USD 66.29-67.20/oz range. Base metals are uneventful with 3M LME copper eking mild gains in a narrow USD 14,299.10- 14,392.73/oz. Oil production in Kazakhstan for 2027 is planned at 96mln tonnes, IFX reported citing the budget project. Russia's Deputy PM Novak said China will account for more than 60% of Russia's total natural gas exports by 2030. Some Chinese rare earth suppliers have reportedly halted some US shipments over geopolitical worries, Reuters reported. TRADE/TARIFFS USTR Greer said Canada wanted more tariff relief and that he's had a couple of texts and outreach with Canada, but hasn't had negotiations with Canada since. Greer also stated he met with Mexico's Trade Minister on Thursday and that Mexico is eager to do things to protect North America from Chinese imports. Furthermore, Greer said the US is looking to reduce its deficit with China and will probably make agriculture announcements during Chinese President Xi’s visit, adding that he is optimistic about the US-China relationship. USTR Greer told the FT that the UK is choosing the EU over the US, which is causing a problem for the UK to expand a trade deal with the US. Greer said the UK had failed to take advantage of Brexit by aligning with EU-made rules and closing its market to American goods and still had “pretty high tariffs”. Brazil warned of reciprocal measures against the EU if talks to lift the meat ban stall. South Korea's Interior Minister said South Korea and the US are continuing chip tariff talks. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES UK Energy Secretary could recommend new North Sea drilling as soon as next week, a Rosebank oilfield announcement expected to follow, The Guardian reported citing sources. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP BoE DMP (Aug): 1-year CPI expectation 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). European Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%). German Factory Orders (Jul MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 3.1%). Italian Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%). CENTRAL BANKS BoE's Bailey said Fed Chair Warsh is "right to see some dangers in forward guidance" and that central bankers should avoid giving unconditional guidance. He added that we do exercise choice on how fast to bring inflation back to target, "but must do so". RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said a rate hike in October or December is still open, but stated a hike is more likely in December and that the RBNZ wants to support continuing improvement in the economy. RBNZ MPC member Hansen said Wednesday's rate hike was a clear consensus decision and that further policy decisions will depend on trends in a wide range of economic datasets, while he is watching for surprises in data, not a single indicator, before deciding what should happen in October. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to allow mail-in ballot restrictions, according to WaPo. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU has joined Operation Economic Outcast and that he appreciates the EU's strong and early stance on Iran. Oman and Qatar are intensifying efforts to resume Iran-US talks, and that the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and the nuclear file are the focus of new disputes, Nour News reported citing diplomatic sources. Direct US-Iran talks have stopped, but mediators are maintaining back channels and trying to build a framework that could bring both sides back to negotiations on a new agreement, FT reported. IRNA reported several explosions were heard in Iraq's Erbil province. South Korea prepared a plan to deploy non-combat naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Chosun Daily. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner is to visit Russia and Ukraine on September 5th-6th, TASS reported citing sources. Ukraine's next goal is to shut down Russia's commercial airspace, according to WSJ. Ukrainian Energy Ministry said Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odessa region. OTHER Argentina's President Milei will sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, while he stated that the Falkland's Sea Lion Project presents a clear danger and plans to build a naval base in Tierra del Fuego. CRYPTO Bitcoin lacks clear direction and trades in a narrow USD 80.5k-81.44k range. APAC TRADE APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment after Fed's Waller kept a September rate hold in play and following no major new geopolitical developments, while participants look ahead to the key US jobs data. ASX 200 lagged with price action rangebound as the outperformance in tech and telecoms was overshadowed by weakness in mining, resources, materials, utilities and energy, while a quiet calendar and lack of drivers kept the index in check. Nikkei 225 shrugged off the disappointing Household Spending data from Japan and briefly returned to above the 65,000 level amid lower yields and after a source report noted that the BoJ favours a 25bps rate hike this month and a flexible future pace, which helped ease concerns of a more aggressive move. KOSPI rallied amid strength in tech heavyweights with notable gains in SK Hynix, while Samsung Electronics was also firmer after industry data showed it narrowed the gap with market leader SK Hynix in the global HBM market during Q2. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheading the advances alongside strength in property, tech and auto stocks, while the gains in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity with today's open market operations amount remaining at zero. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese PM Takaichi will keep Finance Minister Katayama, in cabinet reshuffle, according to Mainichi. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said interest rate moves are determined by various factors in markets and they will control FY bond issuance properly, while she added that FY27 budget requests total about JPY 143tln and don't represent a large increase. Katayama said they are closely watching bond markets with a high sense of urgency and noted that there were no specific requests from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Furthermore, she said Bessent assessed PM Takaichi's economic policies very highly and has long held a view that the yen has been undervalued, due largely to interest rate differentials. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Japanese Household Spending (Jul YY) -3.6% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -3.3%). Japanese Household Spending (Jul MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. -6.4%).