Newsquawk European Market Wrap - 8th April 2026

European stocks look to close with gains across the board amid euphoria from the US-Iran ceasefire. Crude plunged on the announcement of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire and "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was hit by a drone attack, FT reported, citing sources. EQUITIES European bourses have surged higher on the announcement of the two-week Iran war ceasefire, with the STOXX 600 set for its biggest daily gain since March 2022. The DAX 40 remained the outperformer with gains of 5%, while the FTSE 100 underperformed, but still posted gains in excess of 2%, as oil majors weighed on the index. Sectors held its positive bias, with Energy the only sector in the red. Travel and Leisure topped the sector pile, closely followed by Banks. To highlight the positiveness seen in Wednesday’s session, Construction and Materials, Industrial Goods and Services and Basic Resources, alongside Travel and Leisure and Banks, are set for its biggest daily gain since 2020. Maersk was under pressure early in the session following the arbitration by CK Hutchison over the Panama port and the prospect of lower freight rates due to the reopening of Hormuz. As the session continued, the earlier losses have been erased, and the Co. is set to end the day flat. US equity futures opened the cash session with gains of over 2.5% across the board. However, in-fitting with European performance, XLE (Energy ETF) opened up with losses not seen since April 2025, holding onto the pre-cash losses. FX FX traded with a risk-on bias throughout the European session after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, clearing a path for the "re-opening" of the Hormuz Strait. DXY fell as much as a percent, wiping out 2026 gains as the preferred hedge against energy (Brent -15%), Kiwi was the clear outperformer and posted exponential gains after remarks in RBNZ's post-meeting presser, where Governor Breman said the MPC discussed the possibility of raising rates in the April and May meetings, adding that the "frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting." The second-best performer in G10FX was AUD, conforming to it's high-beta-FX characteristics and a rebound in metal prices. GBP traded alongside the Aussie in terms of gains against the buck, with gilts and Sterling particularly sensitive to energy prices. Cable is set to complete the London-US handover with gains of 1.4% on a 1.34 handle, while the EUR cross notably dipped below the key 0.87 level, marking a session low at 0.8686, a handful of pips away at the time of writing. BoE pricing tilted slightly dovish over the session, with futures markets implying 27bps of hikes, as opposed to 30bps pre-market, and the c. 60bps on Tuesday's close. The US session features FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump and Supply from the US. FIXED INCOME Fixed income benchmarks experienced a session of marked gains, given the two-week ceasefire announcement, which has allowed the energy space to retreat and yields to pull back across the curve, which itself is steeper. No move to EZ data, German supply or a handful of officials on the wires. With the focus very much on the ceasefire, reports suggest it may have already been breached. We may learn more from Trump later today. At most, USTs, Bunds and Gilts got to highs of 25+, 196 and 276 ticks respectively. As it stands, they are set to end the European day in proximity to but just off best levels. Ahead, we have a US auction and FOMC Minutes, before the mentioned Trump appearances. Back to yields, the US 2yr got down to a 3.71% low vs recent peaks in excess of 4%. Similarly, the 10yr has been under pressure, down to a 4.23% base vs a recent 4.48% peak; as mentioned, the curve continues to steepen with action driven by the short end. Finland announces a EUR-denominated 10yr bond, to be sold via syndication. Germany sold EUR 3.817bln vs exp. EUR 5.0bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.24x (prev. 1.18x), average yield 2.92% (prev. 2.89%), retention 23.66% (prev. 23.78%). COMMODITIES Crude - Crude plunged on the announcement of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire and "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices were heavy throughout the session, although some upticks were seen on a FT source report that Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was hit by a drone attack. Nonetheless, on the day, WTI fell ~16% to the lower end of a USD 90.80–96.27/bbl range, while Brent dropped ~18% and traded near the bottom of a USD 91.05–109.19/bbl band, decisively breaking below USD 100/bbl as the geopolitical risk premium unwound. Natural Gas – Dutch TTF dropped ~19%, slipping below EUR 44/MWh as improved supply expectations and easing LNG disruption risk followed the ceasefire agreement and controlled reopening of Hormuz. It was also reported that Qatar has begun work to resume production at an LNG export plant. Precious Metals – Spot gold spiked above USD 4,850/oz before paring gains to trade mid-range within USD 4,713–4,858/oz. Silver broke above its 100 DMA (USD 76.11/oz) and held near the top of a USD 73.38–77.65/oz range. Base Metals - Base metals rallied as growth sentiment improved on de-escalation. Copper hit a three-week high, trading near the top of a USD 12,550.00–12,757.72/t range, while aluminium also advanced on reduced supply and demand uncertainty. Qatar has begun work to resume production at an LNG export plant. Russia's Ust-Luga has resumed oil exports after two-week suspension, according to Reuters, citing sources. Basra Oil said it is possible to reproduce 2mln bbls of oil within hours. Slovak government will end its diesel fuel export ban, effective Friday, CTK News reported. Some Japanese refiners are seeking faster US crude deliveries after Iran war disruptions by using smaller ships that can transit the Panama Canal instead of sailing around Africa, Bloomberg reported. Three mid-sized tankers are due to deliver US oil to Japan from late April through May, with two already in the Pacific and a third nearing the canal. EUROPEAN DATA EU PPI MoM (Feb) M/M -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 0.7%). EU Retail Sales YoY (Feb) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 2%). EU PPI YoY (Feb) Y/Y -3.0% vs. Exp. -3% (Prev. -2.1%). EU Retail Sales MoM (Feb) M/M -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%). EU HCOB Construction PMI (Mar) 44.6 (Prev. 46.0). UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 45.6 vs. Exp. 43.9 (Prev. 44.5). UK Halifax House Price Index MoM (Mar) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%). UK Halifax House Price Index YoY (Mar) Y/Y 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.3%). German HCOB Construction PMI (Mar) 48.0 (Prev. 43.7). German Factory Orders MoM (Feb) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. -11.1%). Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Mar) 46.8 (Prev. 50.4). French HCOB Construction PMI (Mar) 38.4 (Prev. 43.9). French Balance of Trade (Feb) -5.8B vs. Exp. -2.3B (Prev. -1.8B). French Imports (Feb) 57.8B (Prev. 55.3B). French Current Account (Feb) -1.80B (Prev. 2.1B). French Exports (Feb) 52.0B (Prev. 53.4B). NOTABLE HEADLINES German Finance Ministry representative states there is no reason to confirm fuel price stability and urges further consideration of relief actions.CENTRAL BANKSECB's Dolenc said that if the Iran war drags on, it will be very bad for inflation and growth.GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Ust-Luga has resumed oil exports after two-week suspension, according to Reuters citing sources. Russia's Foreign Ministry has summoned the Japanese envoy and has lodged protests relating to Japan's terra drone investment in Ukrainian interceptors. India expects the US to extend its waiver on Russian oil purchases, according to a government source cited by Reuters. US VP Vance said the threatening comments by Ukraine President Zelensky on Hungary’s PM Orban following blocking of EU loan for Kyiv were 'scandalous'. Vance said US is 'disappointed' by a lot of the political leadership in Europe over the Russia-Ukraine war. said President Trump will continue to work towards a peace settlement of the war. MIDDLE EAST Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was hit by a drone attack, FT reported citing sources; a pumping station was hit around 1pm local time (just over 2 hours ago). The pipeline carry's crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export. The pipeline has become an economic lifeline for the Kingdom since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Damage currently being assessed. Aramco has been rerouting exports to the Red Sea via the line to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Iran Spox. for National Security Committee Rezaei, in response to aggression against Lebanon, movement of ships in Hormuz must be stopped immediately. Iran is preparing to carry out deterrent operations against Israeli military positions in the occupied territories after ceasefire violations, according to Fars citing a source. Iran's IRGC says a few minutes ago it destroyed a Hermes 900 drone over Fars, warns any US or Israeli airspace violations will be treated as ceasefire breaches and met with a decisive response. Saudi Arabia says it has intercepted 9 drones in the past few hours. IDF denies any involvement in the reported strikes targeting an oil refinery on Iran's Lavan Island this morning, TOI's Fabian reported. Iran’s armed forces say they will support the resistance fronts in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq; warn of a stronger response against any renewed attacks from the US or Israel, a statement said. First ship reportedly passes through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran's permission after the ceasefire, State TV reported. US War Secretary Hegseth said military will be hanging around in Iran, won't go anywhere, and will make sure Iran complies; Iran will let ships go through. Iran will give US the enriched uranium or they'll take it out. New Iranian regime has a different interaction with US. Strait of Hormuz is open, and commerce will flow. Hope and believe ceasefire will hold. Threats on Iran's ability to export energy brough Tehran to a deal. US General Caine said the US operation in Iran achieved its objectives; ceasefire is a pause, the joint force remains ready to resume combat. Approximately 80% of Iran's air defence systems have been destroyed. US destroyed over 90% of Iran's conventional Navy fleet. US destroyed 90% of Iran's weapons factors. Will take years to rebuild any major surface combatants. US War Secretary Hegseth reiterates how Iran will not have a nuclear weapon; Iran has had enough and Iran begged for this ceasefire; US military achieved every single objective. US only applied a fraction of his strength. Iran's missile programme is functionally destroyed. Has destroyed Iran's defense industrial base, and that was a core objective of the mission. Iran could no longer build missiles. Iran's factories have been razed to the ground. If Iran didn't agree to US terms, reiterates Trump that next targets would have been power plants and infrastructure. Trump chose mercy. Under the terms, under nuclear material Iran have will be removed. Now have a real chance at real peace, and the Pentagon has done its part for now. War Department stands ready in the background. Thanks Israeli allies for being brave, and other allies should take some noted from our operation. To US troops involved in Iran operation, stay ready. Senior Iranian Official said Iran could open Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of a meeting with the US in Pakistan if a ceasefire framework is reached, according to Reuters. Reopening would be limited and in coordination with Iranian military still required for all vessels. Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire, FT reported; Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for laden oil Tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said a country supplying military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the US, 50% effective immediately; no exemptions. Full post: A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT. US President Trump said may be joint US-Iran venture for Hormuz tolls, ABC reported. Trump told ABC News on Wednesday morning that the US may seek a "joint venture" with Iran to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said US will work closely with Iran, which have determined has gone through what will be a very productive regime change!; will be no enrichment of uranium; We are, and will be, talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran. Full Post:The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump". Iran’s IRGC say they hit energy complexes and oil transfer lines linked to the US and Israel last night, state media reported. Iran Shipping Secretary General said collecting tolls in the Strait of Hormuz is logical and enforceable, Tehran Times reported. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reiterate that they are prepared to respond forcefully to any attack. Kuwait's oil and power sites targeted by Iranian drones despite US-Iran ceasefire, Al Jazeera reported. Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait and UAE were carried out in response to "the clear violation of the ceasefire" following attacks on Iran's Siri and Lavan islands, alongside Israel's attacks in southern Lebanon, SNN reported. Trump administration expected to slash Iran war funding request, WaPo reported. The eventual ask likely to be USD 80-100bln, less than half an earlier proposal, sources said. Attack on Iran’s Lavan Island refinery left no casualties; fuel supply and distribution network remain stable, Iran's oil ministry said. Iran Navy told ships that they still need Iran's permission to cross the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ reported. “You must receive permission from Iranian Sepah navy for passing through the strait. If any vessel tries to transit without permission, will be destroyed,” the recording reportedly said. The message was broadcast to vessels via radio. US VP Vance said there are good developments about Iran; Iranians have agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. said US and allies have agreed to stop attacking Iran and that’s the basis of the “fragile truce”. said some people within Iran responded very favourably to the truce, and some are lying about what’s been accomplished. said US President Trump is impatient to make progress with Iran. Warns that if Iranians don’t engage in good faith, they’re going to find out that President Trump is not one to mess around. China pressed Iran to accept a cease-fire, NYT reported citing Iranian officials; Iran accepted a 2-week cease-fire after China’s push; Ceasefire deal includes immediate opening of Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s National Security Council said within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel Aviv. Hezbollah politician said if Israel does not adhere to the ceasefire, then nobody will commit to it. Several explosions reported at Iran’s Siri Island on Wednesday morning; source of explosions unknown, Mehr News reported. Explosions heard at the Lavan oil refinery (50k BPD) in Iran, Mehr reported; origin of the explosion is not known. UAE Interior Ministry said UAE air defences are dealing with a missile threat, Al Jazeera reported. Kuwait Army said air defences are dealing with wave of Iranian drone attacks since 8am local time. Kuwait said the intercepted drones, some of which targeted vital oil facilities and power stations in the south of the country, are causing major infrastructure damage. Maritime Shipping Data shows traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited, Arab News reported. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr/03) -0.8%. US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Apr/03) 6.51%.