Daily US Equity Opening News - NET surges after beat-and-raise; LYFT slides after mixed results; Ancora opposes WBD-NFLX deal; HOOD lower after miss; F higher on guidance; GILD slips on soft outlook; US jobs data ahead

TODAY’S AGENDA: DAY AHEAD: In Europe, the ECB’s February wage tracker will be published in the morning. The US day sees the release of the delayed jobs data for January, with the consensus looking for 70k nonfarm payrolls (prev. 50k), and the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% (see below for full preview). Elsewhere, weekly MBA mortgage applications are due. The BoC’s latest meeting minutes will be published in the afternoon. In energy, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report. On Tuesday, API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +13.4mln bbls (exp. +0.8mln), Cushing stocks built by +1.4mln, distillates saw a larger than expected draw of -2.0mln bbls (exp. -1.3mln), while gasoline stocks posted a surprise build of +3.3mln bbls (exp. -0.4mln). The more widely followed weekly DoE inventory report will be published later today. Speakers due today include: ECB’s Schnabel and Cipollone; stateside, Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; no text is expected by there will be a Q&A), Fed’s Hammack (voter, hawk; no text is expected by there will be a Q&A), Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; text and Q&A are expected). In supply, Germany will sell EUR 1bln of 2056 and EUR 1.5bln of 2054 debt; the US Treasury will auction USD 42bln of 10yr notes. Notable US corporates reporting today include: Cisco (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), AppLovin (APP), Equinix (EQIX), Vertiv (VRT), Hilton (HLT), Motorola (MSI). PREVIEW - US JOBS REPORT (13:30GMT/08:30EST): The delayed January jobs data is expected to show 70k nonfarm payrolls added in the month (vs a prev. 50k; with the range of forecasts between -10k to +108k); the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, but are expected to ease to 3.6% Y/Y on an annualised basis (prev. 3.8%). US labour data during the BLS window mixed but skew softer; initial claims were steady, continuing claims eased; the ADP's monthly gauge missed expectations, while Revelio reported job losses in the month. Meanwhile, Challenger job cuts saw the highest January total since 2009; ISM surveys showed a net cooling labour market momentum. Meanwhile, JOLTS for December were the lowest since September 2020. The BLS will release its final benchmark payroll revisions for the year to March 2025; a preliminary estimate indicated 911k fewer jobs; final figures are expected to be lower but still substantial, with estimates ranging from -600k to -900k. Analysts note that all reported months of 2025 have seen downward revisions, cutting 624k jobs, and reducing average monthly gains to under 40k (note: December’s figures will receive their first revision today). The BLS is also set to revise its birth-death model, incorporating current sample data to reduce persistent overstatements of job growth from net business formation. The existing model is seen as biased upwards since April 2024. Adjustments could lower payroll estimates, though the January impact is uncertain given typically negative seasonal birth-death factors. Click here for Newsquawk’s full US jobs report preview NEWS:INDEX: MSCI ACWI Index - MSCI said 63 securities will be added to and 61 securities will be deleted from the MSCI ACWI Index as part of its MSCI Global Standard Indexes review. Bloomberg noted that Chinese shares recorded their largest net additions to MSCI’s key gauges in nearly three years, after it increased Chinese companies in its Global Standard Indexes by 21 following a review; the index provider added 37 Chinese firms and removed 16, marking the biggest inclusion since May 2023.TECH: Apple (AAPL) - US President Donald Trump posted a New York Post article on Truth Social alleging that Apple News promotes left-leaning media outlets while excluding conservative sites. Cloudflare (NET) - Shares rose +15.6% in extended trading after it reported Q4 earnings and revenue ahead of Wall Street expectations, and issued a 2026 revenue outlook above forecasts. Q4 adj. EPS 0.28 (exp. 0.27), Q4 revenue USD 614.5mln (exp. 591.4mln). Highlighted closing its largest annual contract value deal to date at an average of USD 42.5mln per year, with total new ACV growth of nearly 50% Y/Y, the fastest since 2021. Management said demand is being driven by the shift towards AI and agents, describing it as a fundamental re-platforming of the internet benefiting Cloudflare. Sees Q1 EPS at 0.23 (exp. 0.25), and sees Q1 revenue between USD 620-621mln (exp. 614.2mln). Sees FY26 EPS between 1.11-1.12 (exp. 1.18), and FY26 revenue between USD 2.785-2.795bln (exp. 2.74bln). Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (981 HK) - China’s largest state-owned semiconductor foundry SMIC warned that accelerated spending on AI chips is pulling forward years of demand, risking underused data centre capacity. Co-CEO said companies are building up to 10yrs of capacity within one or two years without fully considering how the facilities will be used. Samsung Electronics (5930 KS) - Samsung expects strong memory chip demand this year and into 2027, driven by AI, CTO of the chip division said, adding that customer feedback on its next-generation HBM4 high-bandwidth memory chip has been “very satisfactory.” Lyft (LYFT) - Lyft shares fell 16.6% in extended trading after mixed Q4 results, as active riders and rides missed Wall Street’s expectations despite higher revenue and profit supported by the release of a valuation allowance. Q4 adj. EBITDAS USD 154.1mln (exp. 1750mln), Q4 revenue USD 1.59bln (exp. 1.75bln). Rides +14% Y/Y to 945.5mln, while Active Riders +18% Y/Y to 29.2mln, with annual riders reaching a record 51.3mln in 2025, both missing expectations; the company noted driver hours have risen for 12 consecutive quarters and nearly doubled since early 2023, with ETAs down materially. Authorised a new USD 1bln share repurchase programme following its inaugural 2025 buyback. Management reiterated 2027 targets. Sees Q1 gross bookings between USD 4.86-5.00bln (exp. 4.89bln), with gross bookings expected to grow faster than rides. Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Airbus (EADSY) - Palantir and Airbus extended their collaboration via a multi-year agreement where Airbus will continue using Palantir’s Skywise civil aviation data platform, which supports aircraft and equipment design, production efficiency, safety and sustainability across Airbus’s industrial operations. xAI - Jimmy Ba has become the sixth co-founder to leave Elon Musk’s xAI since its 2023 launch, following Tony Wu’s departure from the 12-person founding team, FT reports. More than half a dozen researchers have also exited amid tensions over technical demands and restructuring. Musk plans to combine xAI with SpaceX in a USD 1.5tln deal and take the group public as early as June. COMMUNICATIONS: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Netflix (NFLX), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Activist investor Ancora Holdings has built a roughly USD 200mln stake in WBD, and plans to oppose its agreement to sell its movie and television studios and HBO Max streaming service to Netflix, WSJ reports. Ancora believes Warner did not adequately engage with Paramount Skydance after it made a rival all-cash offer of USD 30/shr for the entire business. NetEase (NTES) - Q4 adj. EPS 1.58 (exp. 2.03), Q4 revenue USD 3.90bln (exp. 4.10bln). Revenue rose +3.0% Y/Y, with Games and related value-added services +3.4% Y/Y to USD 3.1bln, Youdao +16.8% Y/Y to USD 223.7mln, NetEase Cloud Music +4.7% Y/Y to USD 281.5mln, and Innovative businesses and others -10.4% Y/Y to USD 292.8mln. Total operating expenses rose +10.9% Y/Y to USD 1.3bln. Management highlighted comprehensive AI integration across the game development cycle to enhance scalable production and AI-native gameplay, sustained engagement across core franchises, and strong global traction for titles such as Sword of Justice and Where Winds Meet, which surpassed 80mln cumulative players. Blizzard titles in China delivered record annual revenue, reinforcing the group’s long-term market commitment. Zillow Group (ZG) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.41), Q4 revenue USD 654mln (exp. 650.51mln). FY revenue +16% to USD 2.6bln, vs 3% growth in the broader residential real estate market. Rentals revenue +45% Y/Y to USD 168mln, including multifamily revenue +63%, For Sale revenue +11% to USD 475mln, Mortgages revenue +39% to USD 57mln, supported by +67% increase in purchase loan origination volume. Average monthly unique users increased +8% to 221mln, visits +2% to 2.1bln. FINANCIALS: Robinhood (HOOD) - Robinhood shares fell 8.7% in extended trading after reporting Q4 revenue below expectations, with both crypto and options trading revenue missing forecasts and net deposit growth slowing. Q4 EPS 0.66 (exp. 0.64), Q4 revenue USD 1.28bln (exp. 1.34bln). Q4 crypto revenue USD 221mln (exp. 248.2mln), options revenue USD 314mln (exp. 331mln). Q4 ARPU increased 16% Y/Y to USD 191. Management said 2025 was a record year for net deposits, Gold subscribers, trading volumes, revenues and profits, with momentum carrying into early 2026. Shiv Verma has been appointed CFO effective 6th February, succeeding Jason Warnick, who will remain as a strategic adviser until 1st September. Net deposit growth decelerated in Q4 and into January, according to analysts. Management reiterated momentum into 2026 and highlighted diversification across products, including app offerings and prediction markets, against a weaker crypto backdrop, with bitcoin down more than 45% from its October peak. The company sees FY26 adjusted operating expenses and SBC between USD 2.6-2.725bln, implying around 18% Y/Y growth at the midpoint. American International Group (AIG) - Q4 adj. EPS 1.96 (exp. 1.90), Q4 revenue USD 13.2bln (exp. 12.8bln). Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - ICE announced the launch of cryptocurrency futures contracts based on seven CoinDesk indices, including the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 5. The contracts comprise ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, and futures linked to Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP and BNB. Commerzbank (CRZBY) - Q4 net income EUR 737mln (exp. 628.6mln), Q4 revenue EUR 3.14bln (exp. 3.09bln). Q4 net interest income totalled EUR 2.05bln (exp. 2.04bln; prev. 2.31bln Y/Y), loan-loss provisions were -3.3% Y/Y at EUR 207mln; CET1 ratio stood at 14.7% (exp. 14.6%). FY revenue was EUR 12.2bln (exp. 12bln), net interest income EUR 8.23bln (prev. 8.33bln Y/Y), operating result EUR 4.50bln (prev. 3.83bln Y/Y), and CET1 of 14.7% (prev. 15.1% Y/Y). Sees FY26 net result above EUR 3.2bln (exp. 3.41bln), and sees FY26 net interest income around EUR 8.5bln (prev. saw 8.4bln); CEO said the upgraded outlook reflects progress towards sustainable profitability and capital returns. ABN AMRO (AAVMY) - ABN AMRO reported Q4 net income of EUR 410mln (exp. of 497.4mln), citing higher expenses and provisions for bad loans. It also announced EUR 500mln in shareholder distributions, split equally between cash dividends and a share buyback programme. London Stock Exchange Group (LNSTY) - Elliott Management has built a significant stake in London Stock Exchange Group, and is engaging with CEO to improve performance, FT reports, after LSEG shares have fallen by more than a third over the past year. Elliott urged a multibillion-pound buyback after a GBP 1bln tranche, and margin improvements. Upstart Holdings (UPST) - Q4 EPS 0.17 (exp. 0.46), Q4 revenue USD 296.1mln (exp. 288.6mln). Transaction volume +86% Y/Y to 455,788 loans, with conversion rate improving to 19.4% (from 18.0% Y/Y), while total originations +52% Y/Y to roughly USD 3.2bln. Auto and home originations each grew fivefold in 2025, and accelerated in Q4, while loans held on balance sheet declined 20% Q/Q. Sees FY26 revenue at USD 1.4bln (exp. 1.27bln). For 2025-2028, targets total revenue CAGR of approximately 35% and terminal adj. EBITDA margin of around 25%. Co-founder and CTO Paul Gu will become CEO on 1st May, with Dave Girouard transitioning to Executive Chairman and special adviser. REAL ESTATE: Welltower (WELL) - Q4 normalised FFO/shr 1.45 (exp. 1.44), Q4 revenue USD 3.18bln (exp. 2.99bln). Q4 same-store NOI growth +15.0%, driven by +20.4% SSNOI growth in the Seniors Housing Operating portfolio. Sees FY26 normalised FFO/shr between 6.09-6.25 (exp. 6.02), sees FY26 net income/shr between 3.11-3.27. Guidance assumes average blended SSNOI growth between 11.25-15.75%, including Seniors Housing Operating between +15.0-21.0%, Seniors Housing Triple-net between +3.0-4.0%, Outpatient Medical between +2.0-3.0% and Long-Term/Post-Acute Care between +2.0-3.0%. Anticipates general and administrative expenses between USD 260-270mln, including approximately USD 60mln of stock-based compensation. Expects to fund USD 370mln of developments in 2026.CONSUMER: Amazon (AMZN), BETA Technologies (BETA), Astera Labs (ALAB) - Amazon One Medical launched Health Insights, a beta feature for eligible members providing personalised analysis and evidence-based recommendations from routine lab results; the feature is included at no extra cost and integrates with Health AI, One Medical’s conversational agent. Meanwhile, BETA Technologies shares rose 19% in afterhours trading after a filing showed Amazon had acquired a 5.3% stake. Elsewhere, Amazon is to acquire up to 3.26mln Astera Labs common shares at USD 142.82/shr; the warrant, originally issued in October 2022 and amended in October 2023, allows cashless exercise through 5th February, with shares vesting upon specified payment tranches totalling up to USD 6.5bln for product purchases. China Auto Sales - Chinese vehicle sales fell by -3.2% Y/Y in January (vs prev. -6.2% Y/Y in December). Ford (F) - Ford shares rose 0.8% in extended trading despite a quarterly earnings miss, as the automaker guided stronger profits for 2026, and highlighted progress in improving its core business and cost controls. Q4 adj. EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.19), Q4 revenue USD 45.9bln (exp. 41.78bln); Q4 adj. Ford disclosed a USD 900mln tariff impact after US officials in December said an October tariff-relief programme would apply retroactively to November rather than May as expected. EBIT was USD 1bln, with Ford Pro revenue of USD 14.9bln and Ford Blue revenue of USD 26.2bln. Said Q1 EBIT is expected to be flat sequentially, with a return towards a more normalised EBIT level in Q2 and an underlying run-rate in H2. Sees FY26 adj. EBIT between USD 8-10bln, including a USD 2bln headwind from the Novelis fires and a net tariff impact of USD 2bln, USD 1bln higher than previously communicated due to late changes in tariff credits. Sees FY26 EBIT for Ford Pro between USD 6.5-7.5bln, and for Ford Blue between USD 4-4.5bln, while Ford Model E is expected to post losses between USD 4-4.5bln. Sees FY26 adj. free cash flow between USD 5-6bln with capex between USD 9.5-10.5bln, and continues to target an 8% adj. EBIT margin by 2029. Tesla (TSLA), Tencent (TCEHY) - Tencent Cloud has partnered with Tesla to provide in-car features in China, including instant transfer of WeChat location data and smart service suggestions based on destinations. The upgrade will be delivered via an over-the-air update to Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in China and will be standard on future vehicles. Volkswagen (VWAGY) - The European Union will exempt a China-built EV from Volkswagen AG from import duties, the first approval under a new mechanism aimed at easing trade tensions, Bloomberg reports. The EC accepted an application from Volkswagen to sell the Cupra Tavascan compact SUV at or above a proposed minimum import price. O-I Glass (OI) - Shares fell 5.1% in extended trading, with traders questioning the sustainability of its earnings gains amid ongoing restructuring, despite upbeat projections. Q4 EPS 0.20 (exp. 0.19), Q4 revenue USD 1.5bln (exp. 1.52bln). Results reflected planned restructuring actions, while adj. earnings for FY25 nearly doubled vs 2024, driven by execution of its Fit to Win programme. CEO said results demonstrated the effectiveness of its strategy, despite lower reported figures due to restructuring. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 1.65-1.90 (exp. 1.94), sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD 1.25-1.30bln, representing up to 7% growth year on year, and expects FCF of around USD 200mln in 2026 (+20% vs 2025). Heineken (HEINY) - Heineken said beer volumes declined 1.2% in 2025 (exp. -2.48%), indicating a smaller-than-expected drop in sales for the year. Heineken will cut 5,000-6,000 jobs over the next two years as it faces a slump in demand for alcohol, and as part of efforts to lower costs. Mattel (MAT) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.55), Q4 revenue USD 1.77bln (exp. 1.83bln). December US gross billings grew less than expected, although management cited strong topline growth and positive consumer demand across all regions for the quarter and FY, with international operations delivering growth and market share gains in key categories globally. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 1.18-1.30 (exp. 1.76), sees FY26 revenue growth between +3-6%. Agreed to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Mattel163 from NetEase (NTES) for USD 159mln, implying a total valuation of USD 318mln for the mobile games studio, which has around 20mln monthly active users and over 550mln downloads; the transaction is expected to close by the end of Q1, with more than half of the purchase price funded from Mattel’s share. Paramount (PSKY) and Mattel also agreed a global, multiyear licensing deal for the ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ brand, where from 2027. Royal Caribbean (RCL) - Raised its quarterly dividend +50% to USD 1.50/shr. INDUSTRIALS: Southwest Airlines (LUV) - Southwest said two directors representing Elliott will step down from the board, effective 23rd February. Both were appointed in October 2024 alongside three other Elliott nominees. The company said the departures were not due to any disagreement. Following the changes, Southwest will reduce its board size from 13 to 11. Siemens Energy (SMNEY) - Siemens Energy said it is on track for another year of rising revenue as strong electricity demand boosts sales of gas turbines and power-grid products; group orders rose by over a third to EUR 17.6bln in Q1 (exp. 14.2bln), with its gas business recording its highest-ever order intake; revenue was EUR 9.6bln (exp. 9.83bln), Profit Before Special Items EUR 1.16bln (exp. 992.4mln). Affirms guidance. Dassault Systemes (DASTY) - Q4 EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.33), Q4 revenue USD 1.68bln (exp. 1.74bln). Q4 adj. EBIT EUR 622mln (exp. 654.6mln); cited early traction for its AI-powered Virtual Twins, demonstrating customer value, and announced a strategic partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) to establish new Industry World Models at scale. Sees Q1 revenue rising between 1-5%, and EPS between 0.25-0.31 (exp. 0.33). Sees FY26 total revenue growth between 3-5%, operating margin between 32.2-32.6%, and diluted EPS between 1.30-1.34. ENERGY: Energy Inventories - API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +13.4mln bbls (exp. +0.8mln), Cushing stocks built by +1.4mln, distillates saw a larger than expected draw of -2.0mln bbls (exp. -1.3mln), while gasoline stocks posted a surprise build of +3.3mln bbls (exp. -0.4mln). The more widely followed weekly DoE inventory report will be published later today. TotalEnergies (TTE) - Q4 adj. EPS 1.73 (exp. 1.75), Q4 adj. net income was USD 3.84bln (exp. 3.81bln), adj. EBITDA USD 10.07bln (exp. 9.87bln). Plans a USD 750mln share buyback in Q1; confirmed its FY26 share buyback guidance of around USD 15bln. Sees Q1 production above 2.6mln BOE/D (exp. 2.61mln). For FY26, sees cash flow above USD 26bln and net investments of around USD 15bln, alongside a 3% rise in oil and gas production. CEO said cash flow was stable, highlighting the company’s ability to offset lower hydrocarbon prices through accretive Upstream production growth of 3.9% in 2025, exceeding guidance of above 3%. Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) - Northern Oil and Gas has over 45k BPD of oil hedged for H1 2026, and over 40k BPD for FY 2026, plus over 285 MMBtu per day of gas for H1 2026, and 295 MMBtu per day for FY 2026. In Q4 it completed 33 transactions, deploying USD 77.0mln; in 2025 it deployed USD 173.5mln across 84 deals. HEALTHCARE: Gilead (GILD) - Gilead shares fell 1.6% in extended trading after the company issued a FY26 outlook at the low end of expectations, including a weaker-than-anticipated forecast for its Yeztugo sales and a trimmed growth outlook due to a pricing agreement and insurance coverage uncertainty. Q4 adj. EPS 1.86 (exp. 1.83), Q4 revenue USD 7.9bln (exp. 7.68bln). Q4 Yeztugo sales were USD 96mln (exp. 88mln), while Biktarvy sales rose 5% to USD 4bln (exp. 3.8bln). Highlighted a strong close to the year, citing the US launch of Yeztugo, described as the first twice-yearly HIV prevention therapy, alongside continued growth from Biktarvy and Descovy. Quarterly dividend was raised +3.8% to 0.82/shr. Chairman and CEO said the group expects potential 2026 launches to include two cancer therapies and an additional HIV treatment, adding that momentum from Yeztugo and Livdelzi in liver disease supports confidence in continued growth. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 8.45-8.85 (exp. 8.74), and sees FY26 product sales between USD 29.6-30bln; also sees FY26 product sales excluding Veklury between USD 29-29.4bln; sees FY26 Yeztugo sales of USD 800mln (exp. 907mln). Merck (MRK) - The FDA approved Merck’s pembrolizumab, marketed as Keytruda, and pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa-pmph, marketed as Keytruda Qlex, in combination with paclitaxel, with or without bevacizumab, for adults with platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal carcinoma expressing PD-L1, after one or two prior systemic treatment regimens. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.58 (exp. 0.62), Q4 revenue USD 1.57bln (exp. 1.54bln). Results reflected continued execution in structural heart. CEO said the strong Q4 and FY reflected differentiated positioning in structural heart and highlighted increased confidence in the 2026 outlook, citing multiple catalysts and the company’s long-standing valve expertise as drivers of sustainable growth and expanding profitability. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 0.70-0.76 (exp. 0.69) and sees Q1 revenue between USD 1.55-1.63bln (exp. 1.57bln). Backs FY26 adj. EPS view between 2.90-3.05 (exp. 2.91), and FY26 revenue growth between +8-10%. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - Vertex said its treatment povetacicept for myasthenia gravis has been granted orphan drug designation by the FDA. Moderna (MRNA) - Moderna said the FDA’s Centre for Biologics Evaluation and Research issued a Refusal-to-File letter for its mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine, citing the use of a licensed standard-dose comparator not reflecting the best-available standard of care. No safety or efficacy issues were identified. Moderna requested a Type A meeting. Reviews continue in the EU, Canada and Australia, with potential approvals from late 2026 or early 2027. Novartis (NVS) - Novartis received FDA orphan drug designation for a 2’-methoxyethyl antisense gapmer oligonucleotide targeting MAPT mRNA for the treatment of progressive supranuclear palsy. The designation status is listed as designated, and the product is not FDA approved for the orphan indication.