GeopoliticsIMPORTANT

US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime

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If Iran complies, will be rewarded economically. Benefits for Iran accrue if they actually deliver. US expects to sign agreement overt next few days. US to get enriched material under Iran deal. Draft agreement also lifts US blockade and leads to dismantlement of Iran nuclear programme. Iranians don't get anything upon signing agreement. Not quite at finish line yet, but very close. 80-85% confident a deal gets signed. Iran deal is specific about opening Strait and lifting of blockade and moving of enriched material. Will be significant sanctions relief based on how Iran performs. US seen substantial progress in text of agreement. Regional peace agreement is broad. “It includes Lebanon, it includes Iran, it includes the [Gulf] countries, and includes Israel.” Agreement on specificity over destruction and removal of enriched material. Confident Israelis will get on board. Some Iranians don't love this deal, but think dissent is quite minimal. When Israel sees full terms of deal they will be comfortable with that. Iran is committing to never developing a nuclear weapon -senior administration official US. will have to figure out how to enforce that. We envision 60-day technical negotiation. Iran's Supreme Leader is reportedly comfortable with where we are in negotiations. Iran civilian nuclear power plants acceptable.

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