Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 3rd September 2026

US President Trump said regarding Iran that the US is winning that one very big and controls the Hormuz Strait. Russian President Putin said that Russia and Ukraine should agree first and noted that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement.  Global equities broadly firmer; Broadcom slips after Q4 revenue and margin outlooks missed estimates. DXY lower; JPY outperforms, CHF strengthens after hotter-than-expected inflation. Fixed income benchmarks steady; however, US 10yr holds above 4.75%. Energy benchmarks reverse earlier downside following constructive Putin comments. Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade Balance (Jul), Jobless Claims, S&P Services and Composite PMI Final (Aug), ISM Services PMI (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), Canadian Trade Balance (Jul). Speakers include Fed’s Waller, Hammack & Goolsbee. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% DAX40 +0.1% Stoxx 600 +0.2% FTSE 100 +0.1% ES Sep'26 +0.1% RTY Sep'26 -0.1% NQ Sep'26 U/C YM Sep'26 +0.2% FX DXY -0.3% (99.25) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1604) USD/JPY -1.4% (156.55) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3494) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +3+ ticks Bund Sep'26 +19 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.778% German 10yr Yield 3.360% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 +0.6% Brent Nov'26 +0.4% Spot Gold +1.0% LME Copper +0.4% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.6% Ethereum +0.4% As of 10:35BST / 05:35EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses hold a slight positive tilt. Spain's IBEX 35 outperforms while the AEX is modestly lower. Updates on the Middle East conflict have been light thus far, however, Reuters reported that Iran threatened the US with a large-scale attack if Israel launches an attack on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The more pronounced move came following comments by Russian President Putin, in which he said there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and that contacts with the US continue. Sectors point slightly higher. Media tops the sector pile, with Telecoms and Basic Resources completing the sector outperformers. To the downside lies Consumer Products & Services, followed by Energy and Utilities. US equity futures are mixed, but ultimately trade on either side of the unchanged mark. Focus after-hours was on Broadcom (-2.1% pre-market) earnings, in which they reported Q3 metrics that beat estimates, however its Q4 revenue and margin outlooks came in below expectations. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Further Yen strength which has led to the Buck underperforming against all G10 peers. JPY sees outperformance vs USD with the pair halted just short of 156.00 from a peak above 160 on Wednesday. The move comes absent of a headline driver, but there are several factors which weigh on the pair at the moment. Some suggest potential intervention/rate checks, however price action is more gradual, therefore not consistent with previous bouts, while others say the GPIF’s meeting has fuelled speculation it may raise domestic allocation targets. Other factors which have weighed in the past weeks are the clearer US influence on Japanese policy after Bessent met with various Japanese officials, this hawkish intent also evident in Ueda and Takata's remarks, the latter more so. This morning however, Bloomberg sources said the BoJ is set to favour a 25bps hike and a "flexible" future pace in policy; a report which sparked a dead cat bounce in USD/JPY which lifted back above 157.00. DXY (-0.3%) is being driven by JPY moves today with the index falling to a 99.16 trough before paring some of the move after the aforementioned Bloomberg sources. Some of that pressure can also be attributed to falling domestic yields. CHF is the second best performer, after hotter than expected GDP and CPI data. Following the inflation print, USD/CHF moved lower by 15 pips within a minute then extended the move to c. 25 pips within ten minutes at a 0.8083 low following the release. GDP also indicated a hot Swiss economy in Q2, albeit caveated by the chemical and pharma metrics which surged +10.5% during the period. FIXED INCOME Global fixed income benchmarks are firmer this morning, rebounding from recent losses as the yield situation attempts to improve. USTs (+3+ ticks) are stronger this morning, holding at the top end of a 107-15+ to 107-21 range. Elsewhere, Bunds (+20 ticks) and Gilts (+51 ticks) benefit from cooling energy prices. The geopolitical situation remains tense; however, focus has been on comments from President Trump. He stated that their renewed campaign against Iran will not continue for too long. Separately, the WSJ reported that Trump is said to be having discussions with senior aides regarding whether to call the Iran war over – the piece suggests he is favouring the idea. US yields have moved off their multi-year peaks, with the 10yr (4.77%) holding off the 4.81% high made on Wednesday. JGBs (+40 ticks) are firmer this morning, with an accumulation of factors helping sentiment for the region. As mentioned earlier, oil prices are helping global yields lower; focus has also been on a surprise GPIF management committee, which Bloomberg opined has helped raise speculation that it may raise its 25% domestic bond allocation target. Elsewhere, a 30-year auction overnight was relatively well received, further boding well for the benchmark. On the monetary policy front, money markets have continued to up their bets of a BoJ rate hike this month. This was further corroborated by a Bloomberg sources piece earlier, which highlighted that the Bank is favouring a 25bps hike and a flexible future pace. Bunds and Gilts follow the bullish bias, benefiting from lower oil prices. Most recently, constructive comments from Russian President Putin spurred another bout of pressure in the oil complex – which in turn helped to lift the fixed income space. He stated that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, adding that there are contacts with them. Bunds (U26) jumped c. 10 ticks to make a fresh peak at 122.95. France sells EUR 13.497bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 1.25% 2036, 3.70% 2036, 0.50% 2040 and 4.10% 2046 OAT. Spain sells EUR 5.634bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.30% 2036 Bono and EUR 0.639bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L Bono. UK sells GBP 900mln 1.875% I/L Gilt: b/c 3.58x (prev. 3.20x), real yield 2.496% (prev. 2.165%). Japan sells JPY 456.2bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.79x (prev. 3.86x), average yield 4.079% (prev. 3.952%), Tail in price 0.28 vs prev. 0.21. COMMODITIES Crude futures have pulled back from extremes following a three-day rally and amid a lack of military action overnight. On Wednesday, President Trump said renewed Iran strikes would likely be brief, and officials pointed towards steady Strait of Hormuz flows. That being said, Trump added the US was prepared to conduct another attack on Iran. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets and the Iran conflict are driving a global energy shock and higher prices. Meanwhile, some weakness was seen across the crude complex after Russian President Putin struck a more conciliatory tone as he suggested Russia and Ukraine should agree first and that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement. Brent Nov trades in a USD 94.03-96.20/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.52-97.04/bbl range) while WTI Oct resides in a USD 89.57-91.53/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s 88.97-92.29/bbl band). Dutch TTF prices are also on a softer footing but off worst levels, with the front-month contract remaining elevated above EUR 72.50/MWh where the support was found before moving north of EUR 73/MWh. Analysts at ING suggested in yesterday’s note “Escalation in the Persian Gulf pushes back hopes of any recovery in LNG exports from the region. This remains a concern for Europe, given lower-than-usual storage levels. LNG netbacks favour sending spot LNG to Europe over Asia. But as we move closer to the Northern Hemisphere winter, competition between the two regions is likely to pick up, particularly if Qatari LNG remains largely absent from the market through year-end”. Metals are mixed, with precious metals cheering the pullback in the USD as they attempt to trim recent losses. Spot gold resides in a USD 4,381-4,443/oz range after topping its 100 DMA (USD 4,358/oz) yesterday. Spot silver resides in a relatively narrow USD 65.21-66.25/oz range, still under Tuesday’s USD 67.08/oz high and below the 100 DMA (USD 67.64/oz). Base metals fail to benefit from the USD pullback as elevated energy prices weigh on the growth picture, whilst hawkish central banks also cap gains for the complex. 3M LME copper trades in a tight USD 14,208.88- 14,278.00/t range at the time of writing. Kazakhstan’s August oil and gas condensate production rose 11% M/M, according to sources. Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC's role in the market remains important and will continue to exert significant influence on the oil market because of its high output. Novak added that Russia is to slightly lower oil output in 2026. TRADE/TARIFFS US House Republicans pressed USTR Greer on Wednesday on Capitol Hill about the harm a trade war with Canada could do to their local economies, according to Politico citing sources. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a further easing of US export curbs is not on the table and that relaxing tech export controls for China is not necessary. India's Trade Minister said a final trade agreement between US and India will be published as soon as the US can provide India with tariff advantages. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES UK Business Secretary Reynolds seeks to quell fears of an exit tax on companies spun out from UK universities that move abroad, according to FT. Germany's IFW lifted its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.3% (prev. saw 0.8%) and leaves 2027 GDP at 1%, citing acceleration in economic activity and improving business confidence. German Ifo raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.4% (prev. 0.8%) and 1.2% in 2027 (prev. 0.8%). NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European PPI (Jul MM) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -0.3%). European PPI (Jul YY) 5.8% (Prev. 4.6%). European S&P Global Services PMI Final (Aug) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 51.7). European S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Aug) 52.0 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 52.0). German S&P Global Services PMI Final (Aug) 49.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 49.8). German S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Aug) 51.8 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.3). Italian S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 55.2 vs. Exp. 53.6 (Prev. 52.5). Italian S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 53.6 (Prev. 52.5). Spanish S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 57.8 vs. Exp. 59 (Prev. 58.3). UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Aug) 52.5 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.1). UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Aug) 52.5 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.2). Spanish S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 55.8 (Prev. 56.5). Swiss CPI (Aug YY) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%). Swiss CPI (Aug MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. -0.1%). Swiss GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 0.6%). Swiss GDP Growth Rate (Q2 YY) 2.8% (Prev. 0.5%). CENTRAL BANKS BoJ is reportedly favouring 25bps hike and a flexible future pace, sources suggest. RBNZ Governor Breman said a gradual removal of monetary stimulus is appropriate to return inflation to target while still supporting growth and employment. Breman said she sees risk of more indirect inflation from fuel and stated there is real risk that unless we respond in monetary policy, inflation expectations will get out of hand. NOTABLE US HEADLINES White House confirmed that US President Trump signed a stopgap funding bill into law, funding the government to December 11th. US Secretary of War Hegseth will extend troop deployments in the Middle East through 2027, increasing strain on US forces, according to WSJ. A US judge blocked the Trump administration from enforcing the executive order restricting birthright citizenship. Bank of America Total Card Spending (w/e Aug 29) +3.7% Y/Y (prev. +5% in July); adding that, on balance, the robust spending growth in August is consistent with the view that the slump in July was a blip. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump said regarding Iran that the US is winning that one very big and controls the Hormuz Strait. US Secretary of State Rubio instructed all US embassies around the world earlier this week to send an official diplomatic demarche about Operation Economic Outcast to the most senior level of their host governments, according to Axios citing US officials. US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker said Iran is a bankrupt country and will not be able to pay anyone in its military, civil service or government, nor subsidise its society. He stated the people of Iran will not be happy with the current state of affairs and should blame their government and regime, adding that they should ask for change and a different way forward. US Envoy Witkoff met last weekend with the UAE's national security adviser to discuss next steps on Iran, according to Axios. The report added that "One of the officials said a special message was sent to U.S. diplomatic posts in Abu Dhabi, Muscat, Hong Kong, Doha, London, Berlin and several Central Asian capitals. The missive instructed them to demand that their host governments shut down all branches of Iran's Melli and Saderat banks that are affiliated with the IRGC." Iran reportedly threatened the US with a large-scale attack if Israel launches an attack on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, Reuters reported citing sources. Iranian Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission said the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened without Iran’s will, IRIB reported. Kuwait Army said it was repelling missile and hostile drone attacks, while local news outlets were attributing the attacks to Iranian aggression and Arab sources said the US base in Kuwait was hit by a strike with smoke reported. A senior Yemeni official said Yemen’s armed forces are conducting new military drills in the Red Sea to prepare for a possible confrontation with Israel and the US, IRNA reported. Military sources said clashes broke out between Yemeni government forces and Houthis in the Al-Kadha area west of Taizz, Yemen. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian President Putin said that Russia and Ukraine should agree first and noted that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement. Putin added that contacts with the US continue, adding that Russia is in favour of restoration of relations with the US. He said US President Trump is ready for positive and constructive works and that there are contacts with Ukraine. Russian President Putin said attacks on three oil refineries have been repelled, adding that Russia must respond in kind. US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker said Russia’s aggressive actions, invasion of Ukraine and prior annexation of Crimea lead the US to believe that Russia can be unpredictable and could be willing to take action against a NATO country. Furthermore, he said recent statements by Russian President Putin do not leave him optimistic, while he added that Ukraine needs to be able to defend itself as long as it takes until the war can be brought to an end. OTHER North Korea stripped references to "peaceful unification" with South Korea from the charter of its ruling Workers' Party of Korea, according to Yonhap. CRYPTO Bitcoin extends above USD 77k and briefly topped above USD 78k amid a weaker USD. APAC TRADE APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after initially posting gains. The stocks lost steam heading into the European open despite a lack of newsflow at the time. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in the top-weighted financial sector and miners, but with further gains capped amid quiet newsflow and mixed trade data. Nikkei 225 initially traded with cautious gains before faltering amid recent currency moves and hawkish BoJ rate hike bets following the recent commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda and hawkish dissenter Takata. KOSPI outperformed early in the session with some tech and energy names among the notable gainers. The index fell into red later in the session. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with some encouragement from stronger-than-expected Chinese RatingDog Services PMI data, although the PBoC's open market operations amount remained at zero. Both indices then traded in the red. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japan's GPIF’s unusual August management committee meeting has fuelled speculation it may raise its 25% domestic bond allocation target, Bloomberg reported. Japan's government is reportedly looking to convene an extraordinary Diet session in early October, Asahi reported, with the focus expected to be on consumption tax cuts and a reduction in the number of seats. BoJ accounts show there was no large-scale yen intervention on Wednesday. Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Mimura said they continue to stand ready on FX but declined to comment on if rate checks were conducted. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said no direct requests to do anything has been given from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Japan Chief Secretary Kihara said there has been no change to PM Takaichi government policies about attaining a strong economy and fiscal sustainability BoJ will hold a meeting on market operations scheduled for October 14th 2026. China Prelim Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales (Aug) +11% M/M (prev. -8.8%); -4% Y/Y (prev. -20.9%) . NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese RatingDog Services PMI (Aug) 51.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.4). Chinese RatingDog Composite PMI (Aug) 52.1 (Prev. 50.8). Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Final (Aug) 52.5 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 51.2). Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Aug) 53.50 vs. Exp. 53.4 (Prev. 52.70). Australian S&P Global Services PMI Final (Aug) 53.2 vs. Exp. 52.9 (Prev. 53.6). Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Aug) 52.70 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 53.20). Australian Trade Balance (Jul) 1.923B vs. Exp. 1.40B (Prev. 1.929B). New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2 QQ) -9.0% vs. Exp. -2.2% (Prev. -2.0%).