[MARKET ANALYSIS] European and US stocks tentative; FTSE 100 eyes politics

European Bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) began the session on a muted footing, stabilising after losses on Friday. Geopolitics still in focus with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks which have faded the APAC re-open bid after a joint mediator statement. UK Politics is also in focus, with incumbent Starmer expected to announce his future as PM, likely paving the way for Burnham. Should this scenario occur, focus is on any press reporting around a Chancellor pick/ the length of Starmer’s departure timetable. Sectors began the session mixed. Tech tops the pile with ASML +1.5% after it denied shipping EUV lithography machines, or any related component, to China, following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s accusations. Citi this morning writes “we find it very hard to believe that they would jeopardise their position in the industry”. The sectoral laggard is construction, one of its largest constituents Holcim -1.0% (9% weighting), after RBC downgraded Holcim’s PT, citing the completion of the acquisition of Xella and an update to Q2 results model. On UK politics, Citi said it was too early to turn constructive on the sector despite pockets of attractive valuation, given the likelihood of further political debate on energy policy. It said the order of preference is UK Waters and Centrica, over Energy names. Stateside, futures are mixed. Nasdaq outperforms, taking a lead from European/Korean tech gains; activity is quiet elsewhere with ES and NQ a touch lower.