FedIMPORTANT

Fed's Williams (voter) says in a time of uncertainty and economic shocks, natural to see diverging views on FOMC

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Dissents happen more in times of uncertainty, shows Fed is grappling with issues. There has been a huge shift in labour force growth in the US. Job market break even might range between zero and 50k jobs per month now.  Jobs market is holding up well so far. Not seeing longer term inflation expectations move much, that's encouraging. In balance, job market is helping contain inflation. Fed's job is to make sure inflation expectations hold steady. Tariff based inflation should ease. R* likely higher than most recent low readings. 3% is likely long run Fed funds rate. Expects higher productivity growth over coming years from AI. Persistence of inflation over target is definitely on central bankers' minds. Not seeing signs yet of inflation spilling into underlying trends. US will be less affected relative to other nations from energy shock.

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