IIF: More hawkish Fed and renewed oil volatility could tighten dollar liquidity and raise EM risk hurdle.
Emerging markets face tightening liquidity and record outflows, particularly in Asia, as a hawkish Fed and volatile oil prices drive safe-haven dollar demand and heighten regional risk hurdles.
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EM Debt Issuance EM sovereign issuance hit roughly USD 170 bln in H1; net issuance topped USD 100 bln. First-half debt flows stood at USD 179.8 bln, above USD 141.7 bln in H1 2025. EM Portfolio FlowsNon-resident investors pulled net USD 17.8 bln out of EM portfolios in June due to large equities outflow.EM Equity Flows EM Asia equity outflows hit USD 40.5 bln in June. EM Asia net outflows of USD 27 bln in June offset net inflows in other regions. China equity shifted to USD 14.0 bln outflow in June from USD 8.1 bln inflow in May. Korea net equity outflows from non-resident investors hit USD 30.5 bln, highest in at least 26 years.
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