BoE's Bailey says policymakers are facing a trade off between growth and inflation

The Middle East conflict entirely explains the inflation overshoot. Outlook is for slower growth but not a recession. Highlights uncertainty in forecasting and concern over growth drivers. Can't wait for hard evidence on second-round effects. Tighter financial conditions provide the BoE with space to wait. Has to be confidence that the 2% inflation target is attainable. ONS is doing the right things, but needs to do more. Labour Force Survey participation rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels.