Goldman Sachs says the Hormuz disruption could add USD 18/bbl of oil risk premium, and it flags natgas upside and defensive tilt

While GS leaves its base cases for energy prices unchanged, it estimates an USD 18/bbl real-time risk premium under a six-week full Strait of Hormuz closure; this would moderate to USD 4/bbl if 50% of flows are halted for one month, allowing for spare pipeline capacity. Thebank flags substantial upside risk in natgas, noting that TTF and JKM had little-to-no risk premium; GS says that a one-month halt could see prices approach EUR 74/MWh, around 130% above current levels. Its strategists highlight energy as the key transmission channel, adding that the severity and duration of disruptions to oil flows are seen as critical for broader market impact.