PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Bowman, Schmid

14:30BST/09:30EDT: Fed’s Bowman (voter) will speak on bank stress tests. The subject and forum imply risks that Bowman may avoid comments on monetary policy or the economic outlook. Bowman has not commented on monpol since May, when said progress on lowering inflation has stalled, and she would consider a shift in the policy outlook if war-driven inflation broadens. Bowman said that the longer the Middle East war continues, the greater the inflation risks, and that an extended energy shock would pressure inflation later in the year. She added the Fed can look through a temporary energy shock if it remains credible on monetary policy, and was optimistic that an end to the war would bring lower energy prices. 16:45BST/11:45EDT: Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) will deliver remarks at a banking conference. The subject and forum imply risks that Schmid may avoid comments on monetary policy or the economic outlook. Speaking in early August, Schmid said the mid-terms will not affect the Fed’s October meeting, and does not see the Fed’s credibility as damaged in recent weeks. He said inflation is stubborn and sticky, with the energy shock leaking into the economy, and the Fed needs to get inflation to 2%. It remains unclear what Fed policy is currently restricting. RECAP - FOMC September Meeting: The FOMC unanimously raised rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%. It said the move should help return inflation to target more quickly, while reiterating that inflation remains elevated. Economic activity was described as expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending as resilient and capital investment as robust. Labour-market language was broadly unchanged. The dot plot was hawkish, with the median showing another 25bps hike in 2026. Twelve of 18 participants saw one further hike, four saw two, and two saw none (NOTE: 18 of the 19 participants submitted forecasts; Chair Warsh again did not submit an individual forecast, consistent with his view that publishing projections can unduly constrain the Fed’s future policy decisions). The median rate forecast remained at 4.125% through the end-2027, before easing to 3.875% in 2028, and then to 3.625% in 2029, while its longer-run projection was nudged up to 3.2%. At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Warsh emphasised price stability while describing the US economy and labour market as strong. As expected, he avoided any forward guidance, saying the Fed is “committed to a discipline, not a decision,” and framed the rate hike as evidence of determination to return inflation to target. Warsh also cited economic strength, capital demand and geopolitics behind higher bond yields. Writing after the announcements, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they now expect another 25bps Fed hike in October, citing a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC outcome; it highlighted the 16-2 projection for another 2026 hike, no dissent on the September move, a higher neutral-rate estimate, and Warsh’s emphasis on removing accommodation. Further hikes beyond October are possible, but are not Goldman’s base case.