Citi says oil prices can skew higher as US-Iran talks falter

Citi's base case is for a gradual return of Strait flows over Q3, with divergent negotiating positions on Strait control, Iran's highly enriched uranium and the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire pointing to a prolonged process.  Asia ex-China crude and key product inventories are already below the five-year range at end-May 2026, with low inventories expected to support higher prices for longer even after the Strait reopens.