NY Fed SCE (Aug): Inflation expectations: One-year 3.6% (prev. 3.6%), 3-year 3.2% (prev. 3.3%), 5-year 3% (prev. 3%).

Gas price growth expectations increased again in August, rising by 1.7 ppt to 4.6%. Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 ppt to 44.4%, its highest reading since April 2020. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 ppt to 45.4%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.4 ppt to 13.8%, its lowest reading since February 2026. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months increased by 0.9 ppt to 19.5%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4%.