Fed

PRIMER - Today's Fedspeak includes: Musalem. Fed also releases July meeting minutes

StockNow breaking-news AI analysis

Fed Chair Warsh has adopted a hawkish, data-dependent stance without forward guidance. Despite internal dissent favoring hikes, recent cooling labor and inflation data have lowered immediate tightening expectations.

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16:10BST/11:10EDT: Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) will give an interview to CNBC. In early August, Musalem said he favoured a 25bps rate hike at the July FOMC, citing inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target. He warned that tolerating above-target inflation in pursuit of productivity growth risks unanchoring inflation expectations, and has also earlier stated that gradual rate increases are preferable to later, more abrupt action. 19:00BST/14:00EDT: FOMC July meeting minutes. The minutes will be watched for signs of how widely hawkish views were shared at July’s meeting. The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but three regional presidents dissented in favour of a 25bps hike. Attention will focus on whether other officials also saw a case for tighter policy, particularly amid concerns that supply pressures and strong AI-related investment could sustain inflation. Broader support for the dissenters could keep a September hike in play; markets currently assign roughly a 65% probability to another hold in September. Data since the meeting have strengthened the case for patience; July CPI and PPI were softer, while payroll growth weakened and previous months were revised lower, both reinforcing expectations that the Fed may remain on hold despite inflation staying above target. The minutes may therefore have limited market impact because they pre-date significant new data. Investors may also be more focussed on Chair Warsh’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole next week, as well as the next inflation and employment reports ahead of the September meeting. Newsquawk’s full FOMC preview is here.

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