Shift4 Payments, Inc. Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- The company focuses on empowering the experience economy by providing integrated payments and commerce technology across sectors like restaurants, hotels, resorts, stadiums, and entertainment venues.
- Payments-based revenue represents three-fifths of the business, with growth algorithms targeting low 20s growth globally, mid-teens in the Americas, and high 20s worldwide.
- The company revised its full-year guidance downward by about 100 basis points on a constant currency basis, mainly due to FX volatility and travel disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
- Worldwide payments-based revenue grew over 50% year to date, with second half growth expected in the high single digits to low double digits range (9-13%).
- Free cash flow conversion from incremental EBITDA is expected to remain around 60%, factoring in capital structure changes including a term loan and a $633 million convertible maturity in August 2027.
- The company has managed hardware cost pressures well due to scale purchasing and diversified revenue mix, with no revisions to memory cost impact for the year.
- Pro forma net leverage is at 3.7x, expected to deleverage to low threes by year-end; capital allocation balances organic investment, tuck-in M&A, and share repurchases.
- M&A focus remains on tuck-in acquisitions that accelerate strategic alternatives and expand platform capabilities, with no plans for large-scale deals like Global Blue.
- Organic growth has been 11% for two quarters, with tax-free shopping rolling into organic growth starting Q3; second half organic growth is guided at 9-13%.
- The company disclosed a $300 million acquisition for an account-to-account payments platform, with $140 million upfront and contingent consideration; this is not included in current guidance.
- Shift4 Venue technology is positioned as the last consumer and employee touchpoint in experience economy settings, enabling unified commerce, payments, loyalty, and data-driven innovation.
- The luxury retail strategy integrates tax-free shopping, payments, and currency solutions, leveraging Global Blue's 75-80% market share in tax-free shopping and expanding go-to-market efforts country by country in Europe.
- The company expects $80 million in revenue synergies from combining Shift4, DCC, and Global Blue solutions, with milestones on product, go-to-market scaling, and payments platform capabilities being met.
- Management emphasized patience and confidence in the long-term growth playbook, noting current stock valuation is low relative to earnings and growth, presenting potential capital allocation opportunities like share repurchases.
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Transcript
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All right. We are going to kick it off here. Kicking us off for the third day of the conference is Chris Cruz, CFO of Shift4. Chris, thanks for joining us.
Thanks for having us, Will. I am really happy to be here. Great conference. Wouldn't miss it.
I wanted to kick us off high level here. When you think about the story for Shift4, how are you thinking about the story of differentiation for the company? What do you think the major selling points to customers are?
Yeah. It is a great way to think about us as we are coming into this year and really embracing this idea of who we are as the company that wants to help empower the experience economy. Whether that is shopping, dining, staying, or playing, across all of these different subverticals of the experience economy, we want to be the provider of payments integrated to commerce technology that helps power all of those experiences. Restaurants, hotels, lodging, resorts, stadiums, entertainment like Levi's Stadium here, where the 49ers play or where they hosted the Super Bowl. This is all the in-person payment experience that is super complex. It is very hard. It requires not just lines of code and payment platforms. You need to integrate into vast libraries of software that run revenue centers. You need to deliver on multiple payment modalities, cards, bank rails, ATMs, et cetera.
You need to do it all with a real physical infrastructure in mind, so that when the dinner rush comes 7:00 o'clock Saturday night, you can actually go and break fix. You can actually keep the uptime. When something like the Super Bowl happens, you have the ability to provision all of that infrastructure, make it happen, because those in-person memories and moments that matter are the things that we want to keep that uptime on. We do all of that with, I think, the revenue model that aligns with reliability. So the idea that it is almost like the original usage-based billing model, right? That is what payments bring to the table. If the uptime is there and the merchant is making money and collecting those payments, we are aligned with revenue. If it is down, we are down.
I view that as the core things of what we do, what differentiates us, and how our value proposition resonates with these experience economy end markets.
When you think about what that brings from a financial perspective, how does that inform how you communicate the growth algorithm to investors?
Yeah. Coming into this year, it was really important to really help take this globally expanding, growing business, covering the experience economy as a whole, and trying to break it down into some of my own sort of understanding in financial formula in growth algorithm. We introduced the concept of the growth algorithm at the beginning of the year, cutting across two very important axes. The first of which is how our revenues are generated. So our disaggregated revenue categories of payments-based revenue, our north star, three-fifths of the business, tax-free shopping, and subscription and other. Then we also look at the business through the lens of our geographies. The global expansion narrative of what we are after is a really important part of our growth algorithm. That is where we look at the Americas region versus worldwide as a whole.
And those are two very important axes to look at the business. When you look at that growth algorithm, essentially, a composition that calls for payments-based revenue to grow in the low 20s, that is like a mid-teens in the Americas and a high 20s, but outperforming in the worldwide region. A tax-free shopping growth algorithm that is calling for mid-single digits and a subscription and other that is calling for low double digits. That was for the year. When we look at that growth algorithm and you look at the first half of the year, I will admit that it is a difficult thing to then turn into a framework for ongoing growth because you have something, for example, like worldwide payments-based revenue year to date, it has grown 50-plus percent.
How do I turn that into some sort of a framework for future growth? What I like to point people to is, it is important to understand that the second half implied in our growth algorithm really does show you the building blocks of taking. You take the year to date, you take the full year outlook, and you can see that our second half kind of runs with a growth algorithm that would suggest 9-13. So high single digit, low double digit. I think that kind of a way of thinking about the building blocks of the business, that kind of growth algorithm is an important framework to appreciate and understand as you start to think about durable growth in the future.
Yeah. No, that makes sense. Maybe just on the near term. At the most recent quarter, you took the full year guide down at the midpoint. The bulk of that revision came from FX and some of the continued travel disruptions out of the Middle East. So two parts. How much of the remaining guide would you characterize as de-risked at this point? Separately, on the broader spending environment, is there anything to call out on same store sales dynamics that you are seeing as we sit here late in the quarter?
Yeah. Let us unpack that. We revised the full year guidance at the second quarter earnings. Rightfully so, a little less than 200 basis points at the midpoint. On a constant currency basis, it actually is closer to 100 basis points in terms of the revision, when you play it through. Absolutely right. The two biggest drivers of that revision were, one, just trying to adjust for the fact that FX volatility has moved quite a bit. When we set out the plan at the beginning of the year to where we are today, it is amazing to think that we were talking about a world where the US dollar was supposed to depreciate against the euro pretty meaningfully. I think Goldman and JPMorgan were debating by how much, because it all hinged on how many rate cuts were we going to have.
Right. We are just in such a far cry from that.
A large portion of that revision was just simply updating those FX. Then of course, the topic that we have been talking about quite a bit over the last couple of quarters, the Middle East conflict creating travel disruption, resulted in us finally revising guidance for second half with Q3 and having now an impact embedded into the forecast. We were able to absorb the first half of the year in conflict. We did not revise. Finally coming into what is now a bit more of a lasting duration of a conflict, we had to revise and include that into the Q3. We did not include anything into the Q4.
For those that are trying to sensitize what a Q4 impact might be, using the same framework that we have been using, which is a framework that looks at the forward forecast of flight capacity, flight availability, and bookings, you could size the fourth quarter roughly in line with what the second quarter impact was. I think that is something that we have been trying to be really transparent on to help people with the modeling.
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