Qualcomm Inc Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- Qualcomm announced a multi-year custom silicon agreement with Amazon for data center products, including optical connectivity solutions starting with 1.6T.
- The agreement includes warrants for purchases up to $60 billion from Amazon over 10 years, with 15% of warrants vesting upfront tied to Amazon's commitments.
- Qualcomm expects approximately $5 billion in data center revenue in fiscal 2027, with strong growth into fiscal 2028 and a target of $15 billion in fiscal 2029.
- Qualcomm's data center strategy includes four parts: custom silicon, AI accelerators, CPUs, and connectivity, leveraging its chip manufacturing expertise and broad technology portfolio.
- Qualcomm is engaged with multiple hyperscalers, including Meta and HUMAIN, for data center CPU and AI accelerator products.
- Qualcomm sees significant demand growth for AI tokens and emphasizes its strength in performance per watt and wafer scale manufacturing.
- Smartphones remain a key business, with transitions toward agentic AI experiences, disaggregated AI compute, and new personal AI devices such as smart glasses and wearables.
- Qualcomm expects smartphone market growth from new AI-driven device features despite recent volume declines in lower-tier segments due to memory price impacts.
- Automotive is Qualcomm's most successful diversification, expecting to be the largest chip supplier next year, with AI deeply integrated in autonomous driving and cockpit experiences.
- Automotive compute content is growing 8X from generation 3 to generation 5 products, with Qualcomm transitioning from chips to modules and SIPs, and gaining share globally.
- Qualcomm sees smart glasses and personal AI devices as important growth areas for both consumer and enterprise applications, focusing on highly integrated, low-power modules.
- Qualcomm expects gross margins to remain around current levels with a mix of custom and merchant products, and targets 30% operating margins in three years with investments trailing revenue growth.
- Management highlighted the Amazon deal as a key milestone in executing Qualcomm's data center strategy and emphasized ongoing engagements with other hyperscalers.
- Qualcomm is confident in its diversified growth across data center, automotive IoT, and smartphones, viewing current smartphone market conditions as a low point with growth opportunities ahead.
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Transcript
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Ready to go? Ready to go.
Okay. Okay, good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference. My name is James Schneider. I am the semiconductor analyst here at Goldman, and it is my pleasure to welcome you to our first session of the day. We are very happy to have Qualcomm and CFO and COO, Akash Palkhiwala with us today.
Welcome, Akash. Thank you. Thank you for having me here.
Akash, I think at the highest level, Qualcomm has been working pretty hard to diversify beyond smartphones over a number of years. I want to get your latest thoughts on the progress, starting with data center, but you had a very exciting announcement this morning. I think a custom silicon agreement with Amazon, multi-year in nature and with some warrants attached to it. Maybe you can unpack that for us, help us dimensionalize the opportunity, both in terms of size, type of products, and so on, to the extent you can.
Sure. First of all, thank you for having me here. A very exciting deal for us. I think as you rightly noted, the company is transforming. We used to be a smartphone, primarily a smartphone company. As we look forward, we are very much a highly diversified company with, I'd say, three legs of the stool. We have smartphones. We have auto IoT and data center. We set pretty compelling targets for our data center business a couple months ago at our Investor Day. Very pleased to announce this strategic transaction with Amazon. It's a first of many as we make progress towards what we laid out. You should think of this as really a landmark deal for us in the data center business. This kicks us off there. It includes two components on the product side.
First is customized silicon business with them, multiple generations of that. We are also going to be working with them on optical connectivity solutions, starting with 1.6T and follow-on generations. The transaction includes a warrant agreement that we've outlined in our 8-K that we filed today. But the way it's structured is we issue warrants against purchases of up to $60 billion from Amazon for data center products over the next 10 years. There is an upfront vesting of about 15% of those warrants that's associated with the $60 billion, and that is tied to upfront commitments that are being made by Amazon. The 15% really ties to what they're committing upfront. If you kind of wind back and look at what we had committed at Investor Day, we said approximately $5 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027.
Fiscal 2027 starts shortly for us, and this makes our number a very high confidence. It also positions us for fiscal 2028 to deliver strong year-over-year growth from 2027 to 2028. We are also similarly proceeding with the other data center customer that we talked about at Investor Day. A lot of strong progress. We'll start having revenue with Amazon starting the December quarter, and so we're already in production with them. Very excited about how this deal positions us to execute on our targets going forward. We also did set a target of $15 billion in fiscal 2029, and you should think of this agreement as one of the core components that allows us to execute on that.
Okay, great. I want to come back to all those things Okay and let you unpack it a little bit more, but maybe zooming out again for a second, from a technology perspective, company's long-held expertise in processors, and we are seeing a lot of technologies kind of become more relevant to winning formula in AI overall, specifically networking, storage, and software.
So maybe help investors understand or contextualize for us why these are or are not the correct assets to have under the same corporate umbrella, and speak to maybe Qualcomm's right to win in the marketplace against competitors who maybe have a slightly more diversified technology portfolio in some of those areas.
From a data center perspective?
From a data center perspective.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let me maybe step back, as you said, and outline the different components of our data center strategy.
There are four parts to what we're trying to do. First is custom silicon engagement. Obviously, in addition to Amazon, we've talked about one other global hyperscaler that we're engaged with. I think it's very simple. We have a very strong portfolio of technologies, both from a compute and a connectivity perspective. We also do a lot of chips, especially in advanced nodes. Tremendous expertise of high performance, low power, tremendous expertise of high yield manufacturing. We're bringing all of those things together for our custom silicon engagement. So that's the first part of the business is custom silicon. There's a lot of opportunity in the market.
We are obviously a new player, but we have all the technology scale to deliver on what's required there. The second part of the business is AI accelerator. This is an area where the market is going through a transition. We used to have one uniform solution for all kinds of AI accelerator needs. What we're seeing in the market is a disaggregation of compute, where there is certain kind of solutions. GPUs would be very good for certain things. XPUs would be very good for other things. As you break the workloads down into training and inference, as you break inference down into prefill and decode, there's a clear desire from hyperscalers to have customized solutions for various components. One of the challenges in the current set of solutions that are available is memory bandwidth-constrained solutions.
Qualcomm has this innovative technology that we outlined at Investor Day. We call it High Bandwidth Compute, which is really kind of stacking compute and memory together to deliver extremely high bandwidth that our customer perfect solution for certain kind of decode workloads within inference. We're very excited about the reaction we're getting from customers. There's more to come on that, but very excited about what that technology brings to the market, something very unique and that the market is looking for. So that's our AI accelerator business. The third is CPU, where we deliver what we think is the leading CPU at the edge in phones and PCs and automotive and industrial devices, and we are bringing that to the data center. This is delivering high performance at low power, low cost, and that's what we are bringing to the table.
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