Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) has transformed from a single brand vacation ownership company with 60 properties to a broader platform with over 200 properties, primarily through acquisitions of Diamond and Blue Green.
- HGV now sells mainly three products: Hilton Vacation Club (entry price point), Hilton Grand Vacations (legacy business), and Hilton Club (luxury product).
- EBITDA has grown from approximately $400 million in 2018 to nearly $1.2 billion currently, with an EBITDA conversion rate target of 55 to 65 percent for this year.
- The average interval price decreased from roughly $50,000 before acquisitions to about $25,000 after acquiring Diamond and Blue Green.
- HGV offers enhanced vacation experiences through its Ultimate Access platform, including sponsorships of LPGA Tour, F1, and NASCAR events.
- Despite geopolitical volatility and inflationary pressures, consumer demand has held up well, with over 75 percent of owners living within a four-hour drive of a resort, mitigating travel cost impacts.
- Credit underwriting improvements have led to a nearly 700 basis point decrease in defaults on the Diamond portfolio and improved delinquencies on Blue Green.
- New buyer transactions grew by high single digits in Q1 and Q2 2025, supporting long-term growth and future high-margin sales.
- Q2 2025 saw execution issues in two major Blue Green markets, Myrtle Beach and Orlando, leading to leadership changes and expected continued challenges into Q3 with VPGs down 8.6 percent in Q2 and similar or worse expected in Q3.
- Competition for sales talent is robust, with some back-and-forth movement of sales executives between companies; management actively adjusts compensation plans to address this.
- HEV Max rollout impacts 2026 comparables, especially on Blue Green existing owners, but the product continues to sell well with about 20 percent of Blue Green owners upgraded to HEV Max.
- Ultimate Access program participants have VPGs 20 to 100 percent higher than non-participants; the program is primarily for existing owners but may be selectively offered to new buyers.
- Inventory spend is shifting focus from new builds to reacquired inventory, with total inventory spend expected to decline from $375 million in 2025 to $300 million in 2026, with reacquired inventory comprising roughly a third or more of that spend.
- The Alara acquisition added 30,000 owners and is EBITDA positive and deleveraging in its first year, providing strategic value by integrating owners into the broader HGV platform.
- Approximately 75 percent of U.S. owners live within a four-hour drive of a resort; no material shift has been observed between drive-to and fly-to customer behavior despite fuel and airfare volatility.
- Capital allocation priorities include M&A, organic growth (primarily inventory spend), and return of capital to shareholders, with limited appetite for large M&A deals currently.
- HGV has returned over $2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases, with about $600 million spent annually on buybacks currently.
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Transcript
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Okay. Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for being here. We are going to kick off our timeshare segment here with Hilton Grand Vacations. We are thrilled to have Dan Mathewes here, CFO of Hilton Grand. Thanks for being here, Dan.
No, thanks for the opportunity. It is great to be here.
Awesome. Let us open up with your transformation. HGV has gone from a single-brand vacation ownership company into a much broader platform following the Diamond and Bluegreen acquisitions. As you think about the business today versus, let us say, five years ago, excluding COVID, of course, what do you believe has changed the most meaningfully about HGV and what is still underappreciated?
That is a great question. I think HGV is really transformed over the past five to six years. It is a different organization than it was when I joined the organization back in 2019. We have gone from a timeshare company that had 60 properties to a timeshare company that has over 200 properties. Most of that growth has been inorganic through those acquisitions of both Diamond and Bluegreen. Most notably, it is a change in the consumer base as well. Both the acquisition of Diamond and Bluegreen expanded the breadth of our product. It created a more entry-level product, if you will, and the opportunity for us to better harvest leads from our Hilton Honors relationship with, obviously, Hilton Corp. When you think about the organization today, we have tried to make it very simple from a consumer standpoint. We effectively sell three products.
The vast majority of what we sell is three products. It's Hilton Vacation Club, which is an entry price point, Hilton Grand Vacations, which is the legacy business before any of the acquisitions. Most of the acquisitions fit into the Hilton Vacation Club. Then we also sell Hilton Club, which is more of a luxury product. We've added more scale and more breadth to what we offer the consumer. From an investor standpoint, I think it's a material shift, most notably in the cash flow story of the business. Back in 2018, as an organization that was doing circa $400 million in EBITDA, we made inventory commitments of close to $1.8 billion. That translates into a very low, if even positive, adjusted free cash flow conversion rate.
Today, we're doing close to $1.2 billion in EBITDA, with an EBITDA conversion rate target in the range of 55%-65%, where we expect to be this year as well. It's much less focused on building new inventory and much more focused on capitalizing on more efficient just-in-time inventory from reacquired inventory. So a complete change in both the offerings, the reach, the cash flow story. It's really expanded the product offering, not just from price points. The average interval before the acquisitions was roughly $50,000. With the acquisition of Diamond and Bluegreen, that introduced an average interval, a median interval, if you will, of $25,000. But we've also really enhanced the product offering by expanding upon experiences with our HGV Ultimate Access platform, where we offer our guests the opportunity to participate in once-in-a-lifetime experiences. Most notably, we kick off the LPGA Tour event in early January.
We also sponsor the Formula 1. We also host a number of events with NASCAR, and if you talk to our HGV Ultimate Access team, they'll tell you the thousands of events we host annually to give our owners more than just a simple room and a vacation destination. It is also about experiences today.
Okay. Before we get into some of the specific initiatives on your docket here, I do want to take a step back and ask about the general volatility we're seeing in the geopolitical environment and how you're feeling about the consumer, given gas prices that are back to the highs of the year, inflation pressures weighing on consumers' wallets, airfare prices, and the like. What are you seeing there?
I was saying this earlier. I find it very interesting that we sit here today and we're in a literal shooting conflict with Iran, the consumer has held up well. Travel domestically, travel even in Europe and Japan, to Japan rather, is still fairly robust.
Sure. Not trying to be dismissive.
Gas going from $4 to $5 a gallon is meaningful to anyone. But at the same time, I think the structure of our organization has mitigated that risk to some degree. Well in excess of 75% of our owners live within a four-hour drive of one of our resorts. Gas going from $3 or $4 to $4 to $5 a gallon, does that change the decision to take a vacation with us?
I don't think so. From a credit standpoint, we've taken a number of actions to de-risk our mortgage portfolio, and what I mean by that is it dates back to as early as 2022. Post the Diamond transaction, we eliminated heavy risk credit opportunities. Diamond had a program where they had a low down payment program where you could literally come in, pay 1%, get access to the system, and ironically, by the time you used the system, you probably defaulted right after we paid the sales exec their commission.
We've eliminated that program to enhance the credit underwriting. Also what we've seen from that is a material decrease in the defaults on the Diamond side. The defaults have improved by almost 700 basis points.
Some of it is actions like that. Some of it is also sales practices enhancing the product that we offer, capital investment in the various resorts. In addition to that, most recently, as recent as Q2 last year, we changed the underwriting practice, most notably on Bluegreen, but system-wide. On Bluegreen, they had a practice that was very similar, something that you see throughout the industry. You could come in and put zero down as an existing owner when you were upgrading, as long as your combined equity on the new ownership was in excess of 10%. Today, we've eliminated that program, so you are required to put an additional 10% down.
It's kind of de-risk that portfolio. When we look at the leading indicators for defaults, which in our case is early-stage delinquencies, 30 to 60 days.
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