Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland) Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- Seagate Technology sees strong growth in AI infrastructure mass storage driven by public cloud and on-prem data centers, with enterprise OEM growth as well.
- The company emphasizes disciplined CAPEX and capacity additions driven by technology rather than unit volume, focusing on selling exabytes rather than units.
- Seagate targets a mid-20% CAGR in exabyte growth over three to four years, noting that absolute exabyte growth is a more meaningful metric than percentage growth due to a growing base.
- New applications such as video AI, autonomous driving, and robotic AI are driving increased storage demand, with data value justifying higher storage costs compared to recomputing data.
- Seagate's technology transitions, particularly with the Hammer platform, support exabyte growth by increasing capacity per drive from 30TB to 40TB and planning 50TB drives by calendar year 2027.
- Pricing per exabyte has shifted from mid-single-digit declines to double-digit growth, with an 11% year-over-year increase last quarter, supported by strong supply-demand balance and data value.
- Customers are receptive to higher per-drive and per-exabyte prices due to the growing value of data and total cost of ownership considerations.
- Seagate does not foresee oversupply risks in the near term, citing purchase orders for the next four to five quarters and disciplined CAPEX to manage potential demand shifts.
- Hammer technology is progressing well with qualification at top hyperscalers, volume crossover expected by December, and plans for 80-90% of data center volume on Hammer within a few years.
- Vertical integration, including internal laser production, provides cost and supply chain advantages as Hammer production ramps.
- PMR technology will remain for lower capacity drives but will largely be replaced by Hammer for drives above 30TB, especially in public cloud and on-prem data centers.
- Seagate's business segments include 80% data center (high capacity drives) and 20% edge (consumer, client, video surveillance) with stable volume and improved pricing in the latter.
- Financially, Seagate has outstripped prior targets with stronger demand and pricing, resulting in improved gross margin, operating margin, and EPS, with expectations for continued improvement.
- Incremental gross margins have exceeded 70% in recent quarters, well above the prior 50% target, with no expected change in the near term.
- The company has reduced high-coupon debt and plans to increase share buybacks starting calendar year 2027, with potential dividend increases reviewed annually but not currently a primary focus.
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Transcript
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Ready to go? Okay. Okay.
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference. My name is Jim Schneider. I'm a semiconductor analyst here at Goldman Sachs. It's my pleasure to welcome Seagate Technology and CFO, Gianluca Romano, to be here with us today. Thanks, Gianluca, for being here.
Thank you very much. Maybe start off at the highest level.
Help us understand where you think we are in the build-out of mass storage for AI infrastructure, and where do you see the biggest opportunities specifically for Seagate over the next, say, 12 to 18 months?
Yeah. Before we start, let me inform everyone that I will be making forward-looking statements today, and you can learn more about the risks associated with those statements on our website. Well, it's a very good question. I would say, if you look at the CapEx of our customers, the growth in their CapEx is signaling still being in a first part of the phase of AI investment. Therefore, for what we are concerned on investment in storage, in data storage, especially in the big public cloud, and more recently, I would say even more on on-prem data center with a fairly good growth on enterprise OEM.
Okay, great. With your competitors, you've been able to significantly increase the amount of exabytes being brought to market without really significantly increasing unit production and by just doing the capacity additions rather than unit volume. The industry's been prudent on supply additions. Seems the strategy has really paid off for most of the players, yourself included. How do you think about striking that balance into next year and beyond?
In general, I would say it's important for this industry to be disciplined with CapEx and with capacity addition. I think we have been very well-aligned to this discipline for two or three years at this point in time. The business is growing because of technology, not because of more units. We move up in technology with products that have more content inside the box, and that is generating, at the end of the quarter, more exabyte. Finally, this industry is selling exabytes, not units. So what we need to focus is, of course, always looking at supply and demand, and keeping a good balance between the two, and also now strongly pushing on our technology to continue to grow in exabyte year after year.
What is your view on sort of the long-term exabyte growth for the industry? You've talked about 20% long-term growth as a target. Clearly, you've been outstripping that for a little while now. Is that still the correct long-term target, or you think we can kind of sustainably ship above that given the sort of current supply balance we have?
Well, every quarter is different. Every year is different. We gave this mid-20% CAGR for a fairly long period of time. We said about 3 or 4 years. Of course, you need to look at the real exabyte growth, not only in percentage, but also the real number, in absolute number. And of course, when the base starts to grow, you add a lot of exabytes, maybe in percentage is not exactly the same of what you were doing 2 or 3 years before, but actually in exabyte is more. So that increased number of exabyte is actually what is impacting positively your revenue growth. So when the base change percentage, it could be a little bit misleading. So I always look more at the absolute numbers than percentages. But this industry, and Seagate in particular, I think, is growing very strongly in exabyte.
As we said, this will continue because of the applications that are today and in the future impacting the need for more storage. If I look today where storage is, there is a lot of traditional application, and then there is the new input from video AI, from starting robotic AI. Or if you are here in San Francisco, you see a lot of autonomous driving. All those cars have a lot of camera, and all the data that they collect all day long gets stored. If you multiply San Francisco for the rest of the world, you can just imagine how much data autonomous driving will generate and the need for storage. And this is just one application. Even robotic AI is just the beginning.
There is a lot of quality control that is done connected to AI, so that you get an input from AI on how to identify an eventual problem, and eventually how to fix the eventual problem. Some of that is in the form of video, and video consume a lot of exabyte. So there are a lot of new applications, but the common theme of those application is everything is based on data. And that data is very, very valuable. When you have valuable data, the cost of storage is minimal comparing to recompute that data. And that's why storage is growing at the pace that you have seen in the last 2 or 3 years.
Yeah. You mentioned this idea of absolute exabyte growth for the industry. That's a very interesting notion. I don't think I remember you raising that before. Curious, is there a way to frame the industry growth in terms of absolute exabytes?
No, I think you can look at the trend. Because we are growing fairly rapidly in terms of exabyte, the base is really growing.
Sure. If you look at growing, I don't know, 25% or 30% this year comparing to three years ago, that is maybe a 50-plus percent.
Of course. If you look at the number of exabyte.
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