Medtronic plc Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- Medtronic reported strong Q1 fiscal year results with 13.7% growth including an extra week, and about 7% organic growth after adjusting for the extra week.
- The cardiac rhythm management franchise grew 15% in Q1 (9% adjusted), driven by innovations such as EVICD, conduction system pacing, and leadless pacemakers.
- The spine business performed well, aided by the Stealth Axis platform, and the surgical business including acute care and monitoring also showed strong performance.
- Four high-growth areas identified are cardiac ablation, renal denervation for hypertension, AltaViva for urge urinary incontinence, and Hugo robotic surgery, each representing multi-billion dollar opportunities.
- China accounts for about 5-6% of Medtronic's revenue post-VBP and is viewed as a stable, profitable growth market with government focus on expanding healthcare coverage.
- Medtronic has doubled its investment in innovation over recent years through increased M&A and venture investments, complementing organic growth.
- Cardiac ablation grew 88% to a $2 billion business, with expectations to grow at over two and a half times the market rate in fiscal 2027, supported by new product launches and geographic expansion.
- Medtronic invested $700 million in a distribution agreement with Cornerstone for the Sentier robot, expanding soft tissue robotic surgery offerings outside the US in about 50 countries.
- The Hugo surgical robot has about 250 installed units globally and is projected to exceed 50,000 procedures in the year, already impacting surgical business growth.
- Medtronic plans to separate its MiniMed diabetes business, with the timing affecting EPS accretion, but the business is performing well with strong innovation and volume growth.
- Renal denervation for hypertension is progressing well clinically and commercially, with a $100 billion annual market potential by fiscal 2026 and ongoing efforts to secure insurance coverage and build referral pathways.
- TAVR growth has stabilized after a slowdown due to low-risk data, with Medtronic investing in additional structural heart tools like balloon-expandable valves and mitral/tricuspid procedures.
- AltaViva, a minimally invasive device for overactive bladder, has driven 15% growth in the public health business, expanding patient access with a simpler procedure than sacral nerve implants.
- Spine business growth remains strong, primarily US-based, with enabling technology improving competitive positioning and patient outcomes.
- Medtronic increased M&A activity to about $2.7-$2.8 billion in the past 12 months, focusing on tuck-in acquisitions that complement the portfolio and balance EPS growth with innovation investment.
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Transcript
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Welcome to the stage, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Medtronic plc, Geoff Martha, and CFO of Medtronic plc, Thierry Piéton, and Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering medical technology, Larry Biegelsen.
Okay. Well, welcome everyone to the 21st Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference. I'm Larry Biegelsen, the medical device analyst at Wells Fargo, and on behalf of the entire research team, I want to thank everybody here for helping make this our most successful healthcare conference to date.
Oh, great. We had about 2,000 people register, over 300 companies attending.
A great turnout. Now let's turn to our keynote speaker, Geoff Martha, the CEO of Medtronic, the world's leading medical device company. Geoff is also joined by Thierry Piéton, Medtronic's CFO. The format is going to be moderated Q&A. We'll spend the first part of the discussion on industry trends, and then we'll turn to Medtronic-specific topics. Geoff and Thierry, thanks so much for being here and agreeing to be our keynote speaker today. Let's jump into questions. Sure.
Jeff, we have seen a rotation out of healthcare and out of MedTech in recent years due to high growth into high growth areas like AI and technology. As the industry leader, Jeff, why is this a good time to invest in MedTech?
Well, first of all, Larry, congratulations on that conference. It is great to see it continuing to grow, and thanks for having us. Look, I think it is a great time to invest in MedTech, because we see some really great innovation happening, not just in the traditional biomedical engineering side, less invasive devices, smaller devices, longer batteries, et cetera, but when you take the AI and robotics, they are like force multipliers. And they have allowed us to expand our scope of innovation from not just improving patient outcomes, but to lowering costs over time and also expanding access. I think it is a great time to invest in MedTech right now. We can go through this. When you look at our growth and the growth acceleration at Medtronic, some of it is market share, but a lot of it is expanding the markets and pulling new patients in.
In some cases, it is brand new segments like renal denervation for hypertension. But in other cases, it is just like lowering the threshold for 75-year-old businesses like cardiac rhythm management, and expanding those markets and pulling more patients in above and beyond any kind of impact from chronic disease, rising chronic disease or aging population. When you even factor that out, we are still pulling a lot more patients into new therapies.
That is good to hear. Jeff, as you know, a concern right now is the potential impact to procedures and capital equipment spending from some of the policy changes going on. How are you thinking about the impact?
Well, the policy change I hear the most about would be like the ACA rollbacks. Look, we've looked at that. A couple things, because we've seen some of that commentary. First of all, our procedural mix is very acute, right? That's one piece of it. We're not into these more elective procedures. We don't have as much exposure to that. When it comes to ACA, linked to that acute nature, maybe two thirds of our payer mix is Medicare, 25% commercial, and less than 10% Medicaid. When you look at our exposure to ACA related programs, it's less than 1% of our revenue globally. So it's just not a lot of exposure to it.
That makes sense. You touched upon, Geoff, AI, which is transforming many industries. What impact is AI having across the industry and at Medtronic? What does it mean for revenue and for cost?
Well, look, I'll start on the revenue side. It's definitely having an impact on our revenue. Again, when we talk about AI, and like I said, especially when you combine it with robotics, but even by itself, it's a force multiplier. When we talk about AI in our products, we're largely talking about, look, we have a lot of access to structured physiological data, structured device data, procedure data. We're not talking about large language models and just general data. We're talking about very precise data, and we're using that more in a machine learning environment, and it's dramatically impacting our ability to diagnose things earlier, better. Here's the big one. To personalize therapy at scale. So whether it's personalizing your DBS therapy, personalizing a surgical plan in spine for one patient, you're able to do that at scale, and that's going to help with clinical outcomes.
As I said just a second ago, it's helping us expand our aperture on what the benefits of the innovation to talk about access. I just saw this example the other day, our GI Genius for colonoscopy, that's AI in the colonoscopy procedure. In the U.S., it's quickly becoming the standard of care, because we found in our clinical trials that anywhere from 25%-50% of the polyps are missed in the leading centers in the U.S. This has erased that, right? It's fixed that with the GI Genius that we have. Go over to a place like India, I saw a massive hospital with hundreds of people in the waiting room getting colonoscopies.
Yet here, what we saw is very young physicians, and the CEO of the hospital said, "Look, these physicians are right out of med school, don't have the apprenticeships or the fellowships that you have in the U.S., but they're getting the exact same diagnostic yield as you're getting in the U.S. because of GI Genius." It democratizes good care.
That makes sense. China, Geoff, as you know, has been very volatile in recent years. I think you've said in the past it's maybe 6%-7% of Medtronic sales. I don't know if that's still the case. How are you thinking about how is your business performing in China, and how are you thinking about that geography going forward?
Well, the percentage of our revenue has come down after the VBP, but it stabilized. Look, we view China, it's performing well. It's a growth market for us. The Chinese government's very focused on expanding healthcare to people that don't have coverage, in a more higher-end healthcare that we play in. They're serious about it. There's a lot of growth there, and it's a growth market for us, and it's a good, profitable market for us.
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