Mobileye Global Inc. Class A Common Stock Canaccord Genuity's 46th Annual Growth Conference
Review the key takeaways and the transcript of this earnings call.
- Mobileye's tier one customers hold inventory around five weeks, slightly above typical levels due to industry-wide safety stock increases, with about one million units added in Q1.
- Mobileye secured three design wins for surround ADAS systems launching in 2028, with average selling prices two and a half to three times higher than the current $46 base ADAS ASP, maintaining similar profitability margins in the mid to high 60% range.
- Surround ADAS is expected to represent 30 to 40% of automaker volumes over the next four to five years, potentially driving ASPs into the $80 to $90 range.
- Supervision, a more advanced L2+ system, is launching in Q1 2027 with a ramp to 300,000-350,000 vehicles by year three, and chauffeur, a level 3 system, will launch in the first half of 2028.
- Mobileye expects to deploy Drive, their robotaxi system, without safety drivers by the end of 2024 in Florida.
- Volkswagen Group is a key customer adopting Mobileye's full product portfolio, with every new vehicle over the next five years expected to include Mobileye technology.
- Mobileye's average selling price with Volkswagen is expected to double by around 2030, driven by higher-priced products like supervision ($1,300), chauffeur ($2,000-$3,000), and robotaxi systems (~$4,000).
- Mobileye's robotaxi deployment with Volkswagen targets 5-6 cities by the end of 2027 in the US and Europe, with user group testing underway and production vehicles validated.
- Mobileye is also launching its own vertically integrated robotaxi service in an unnamed southeastern US city around mid-2025.
- Mobileye's humanoid robot, Menti, is fully vertically integrated with AI-first training methods and benefits from Mobileye's multimodal perception and planning expertise.
- Mobileye continues to invest heavily in next-generation autonomous products, expecting strong operating leverage as revenue ramps.
- Mobileye sees increased OEM interest in advanced autonomous solutions following Tesla FSD adoption growth, though no major change in OEM traction yet.
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Transcript
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Hey everyone. Good morning, and thank you for joining our 46th annual growth conference here at Canaccord Genuity. I'm George Henriques, one of our sustainability analysts, and we're very pleased, happy, excited to have Mobileye with us here today. Presenting from the company is Dan Galves, Chief Communications Officer. Dan, thanks for joining us.
George, appreciate it. Let's start from the top.
Just maybe talking about the day-to-day business. Customer inventory adjustments come and go. Can you just give us an update as to where Mobileye is today from a customer inventory perspective?
Yeah. I think our inventories are held generally at our tier 1 customers, and we're around five weeks. It's typically you're in between four and five weeks. I think it's been an industry-wide phenomenon this year that the automakers are looking to have a little bit more safety stock in the system. We did about 1 million units in Q1, resulted in safety stock increase, but still within normal levels. Where that goes from here, we don't really know. I think that with supply chain tightness that's out there, we think that it stays at this level.
There's always the chance that the tier 1s want to manage inventory down at the end of the year and then replenish it in Q1, and we've incorporated some of that potential in our second half guidance, which is one of the reasons why it's a little bit below the first half. I think normal, what the customers wanted, and we'll manage it as it comes.
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