Newsquawk デイリー米国オープニングニュース - 2026年11月2日

US President Trump reportedly favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed military strikes, Axios reported. Iran reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, Kyodo reported. US equity futures rebound with Apple on the docket after-hours. DXY is softer; EUR outperforms despite Fitch's negative outlook on France. Fixed income benchmarks gain amid lower energy prices (Brent -4.1%). Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q4). Speakers include Fed's Goolsbee and US President Trump. Earnings from Apple. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% DAX40 +0.4% Stoxx 600 +0.1% FTSE 100 +0.2% ES Dec'26 +0.5% RTY Dec'26 +0.7% NQ Dec'26 +0.8% YM Dec'26 +0.6% FX DXY -0.3% (101.70) EUR/USD +0.4% (1.1207) USD/JPY +0.3% (157.98) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3404) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +1 tick Bund Dec'26 +12 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.919% German 10yr Yield 3.308% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -4.2% Brent Jan'27 -4.1% Spot Gold +0.5% LME Copper +0.8% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.5% Ethereum +0.4% As of 10:55GMT / 05:55EST EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) are broadly firmer to start the week, following on from the upbeat tone in Asia and the downside in energy benchmarks on hopes for diplomacy. Sectors have a slight positive tilt; Travel & Leisure leads while Energy lags. Over in Asia, Chinese equities advanced following reports that the PBoC, NFRA and CSRC are set to meet with major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support equity markets, including optimising lending programmes for share buybacks. However, not everything was positive. Shares of Kioxia slumped over 15% after guiding Q3 operating profit of JPY 2.00tln (prev. 1.99tln Q/Q), which is seen as cautious and points to limited sequential growth. Key movers in Europe include: Alstom -28.2%, H1 sales missed estimates and cut its FY guidance; Ryanair +2.0%, Q2 sales and PAT broadly in line while announcing a review of Group-wide expenses; Fresenius +2.9%, entered an exclusive agreement with WuXi Biologics; Novartis -1.5%, downgraded to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank. US equity futures are higher to start the week, rebounding from last week's losses that saw the NDX enter correction territory for the third time this year. It is a relatively quiet earnings docket today, outside of Apple, which is expected to report after-hours. Click for the session's European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Snapshot: DXY is on the back foot this morning, with G10s broadly winning against the USD. The EUR and CHF hold towards the top of the pile, whilst the JPY is the slight laggard, but only posting losses of c. 0.3%. DXY holds towards the lower end of a 101.42 to 101.99 range, whilst EUR/USD has risen back above the 1.1200 mark, to make a session peak at 1.1237. Pressure in the USD can be attributed to two key factors: 1) pressure in the crude complex (Brent Jan'27 -4.1%), amidst constructive US-Iran diplomacy reports, and 2) increasing odds of a Democratic sweep; Kalshi odds show a 72% chance of a Dem Senate, and 94% of a Dem House (odds shown via the Newsquawk Midterm Panel). In theory a Dem sweep, or a more likely outcome, a gridlock, would be USD-negative. This is due to the higher likelihood of political friction, potential for shutdowns, and the knock-on effect on growth. Midterms will be the key determinant of USD action this week, but attention will also be on US ISM figures (today and Wednesday), as well as the NFP report on Friday. EUR is the best performer this morning, benefiting from the USD weakness, its high liquidity status and cooling Dutch TTF prices. The strength does appear to be USD-related, given that European newsflow over the weekend has been by and large negative. Starting in France, Fitch placed France's credit rating on negative outlook and affirmed its A+ sovereign rating in an unscheduled move on Friday, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating state of the country's public finances. Across the border, Germany was subject to nationwide violent protests, further evidence of the fragmentation within Europe. JPY is the mild underperformer this morning, with USD/JPY holding at the upper end of a 157.44 to 158.00 range. The pair was largely unreactive to jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who noted that PM Takaichi said the yen's undervaluation is problematic and that the government remains ready to take action against disorderly FX moves, but also stated that conditions have improved from before and that she couldn't say if current levels are good or bad. FIXED INCOME A firmer start to a potentially pivotal week for fixed income. Aside from the numerous data points, a handful of policy decisions and earnings, the week is headlined by the US midterms and then the potential for US kinetic action against Iran on the weekend. While of note, the implications for price action thus far see USTs near enough flat, despite the c. 4% of WTI downside; essentially, as participants await clarity on those two points. This leaves USTs in a narrow 106-15+ to 106-25+ band, with upside of a tick as things stand. Today, stateside, the main update is ISM Manufacturing PMI before after-hours earnings from Apple. Bunds are bid, faring slightly better than USTs, but still relatively contained amid a few conflicting factors for EGBs generally. Firstly, the discussed pullback in crude has also made itself known in Dutch TTF, which is teetering on the EUR 100/MWh handle, to the benefit of EGBs. However, the space is knocked by the surprise outlook cut to France by Fitch, and as civil unrest spilled over into Germany on the weekend. Amidst this, Bunds are bid by 12 ticks and at the top-end of 122.22 to 122.62 parameters, while OATs actually outperform among EGBs, despite Fitch placing the rating on a negative outlook, amid concerns over the nation's finances. Gilts are bid and outperforming currently, higher by about 60 ticks and just off an 86.18 peak. Upside driven by the discussed energy moves, and the weekend press focused on potential aspects of the Burnham/Healey 10yr plan and commentary that they are looking to cut welfare, pending the two reviews due this month. Alphabet (GOOG) launched a seven-part EUR-denominated bond offering. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are lower, after retreating at the reopen amid hopes for diplomacy after Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, with Iran's FM Araghchi saying the talks are making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. WTI Dec'26 holds within a USD 99.48-102.75/bbl range (USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range on Friday), while Brent Jan'27 is lower in a USD 108.26-112.41/bbl range (USD 111.03-114.29/bbl range on Friday). Benchmarks saw modest downside after sources said Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday, but not due to difficulties in negotiations, with a draft proposal circulated for feedback and a follow-up meeting possible. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei also said the compression of Tehran's seven-day proposal into two days is a sign of goodwill and that "America must make a decision", which added modest pressure to the complex. Dutch TTF Dec'26 is lower by 3.8% at the time of writing and just about holds above the EUR 100/MWh mark, with ongoing diplomatic efforts weighing on energy sentiment today. Spot gold is firmer intraday amid the fall in energy, and within a USD 3,891-3,919/oz range (vs Friday's USD 3,870-4,027/oz range), recouping some of Friday's losses alongside a softer USD. Spot silver is back above USD 50/oz, within a USD 49.11-50.55/oz range (vs Friday's USD 48.86-52.35/oz range). 3M LME copper is higher by 0.8% within a USD 14,190.30-14,298.03/t range (vs Friday's USD 14,146.47-14,379.13/t range), as the mixed risk appetite gradually improves. Major OPEC+ producers reaffirmed their plans to keep December oil production quotas unchanged, as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt a significant portion of the group's output, while it was separately reported that potential adjustments to output policy could be considered in 2027, with the group expected to complete an assessment of member countries' production capacities before determining quota baselines for 2027, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter. ADNOC's CEO said nearly 1bln of bbls were drained from global inventories since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted and that the world has eroded its supply buffers, and added stocks of diesels in some markets are at 35-year lows for this time of the season. Germany is set to miss its November 1 target for filling natural gas storage facilities, with reserves standing at 61.17% as of Friday, well below the 70% goal. The shortfall comes as colder weather sets in and despite efforts to increase fuel purchases through state-owned energy company SEFE, leaving the country with a reduced buffer ahead of peak winter demand, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. China and Oman reportedly agree to deepen oil and gas cooperation and expand new energy cooperation in solar, storage and wind, Xinhua reported. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December 2026 to USD 105/bbl (prev. 90/bbl) and its 2027 average forecast to USD 88/bbl (prev. c. 80/bbl), citing heightened Middle East supply risks and a substantial near-term risk premium. It warned markets are increasingly pricing in potential escalation following the November 3 US midterm elections. TRADE/TARIFFS US President Trump said he spoke with Canadian PM Carney the other day and they are close to a deal, stating that they have the concept of a very good deal with Canada which will build and pay for the Keystone Pipeline. Canadian PM Carney said he held a productive conversation with US President Trump on bilateral trade and that both sides are exploring a framework for a mutually beneficial Canada‑US trade agreement. Canadian PM Carney said Canada would not hurry into a trade deal with the US unless the terms were in its best interests, while he suggested Canada would remain in President Trump's crosshairs after the US midterm elections. Several Chinese automakers have travelled to Beijing to negotiate the allocation of EU hybrid vehicle export quotas with government departments, Cailian reported. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES BoE is reportedly considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending, with its Financial Policy Committee reviewing a proposal to raise the income multiple threshold to 5x from the current 4.5x, following pressure from lenders and the government, according to the FT. UK Chancellor Healey hinted at a delay in equalising minimum wages for young people, declining to reiterate the government's commitment to bringing them in line with the national standard during this Parliament, amid a youth unemployment crisis. Trade union chiefs warned UK Chancellor Healey against pursuing "a trade-off between jobs and wages" after he signalled the Labour manifesto pledge to close the minimum wage gap for young people would be delayed until after the next election, according to FT. Fitch revised France's credit rating outlook to negative in an unscheduled review, citing weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening fiscal deficit since August 2026. Belgium PM De Wever is reportedly at the royal palace to tender his government's resignation to King Philippe following the collapse of overnight budget negotiations, according to local media. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 51.9). European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.9). German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 54.2 vs. Exp. 54.2 (Prev. 53.9). French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 50.6). Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.4 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.4). Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.2 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 51.0). German Retail Sales (Sep MM) -2.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.3%). German Retail Sales (Sep YY) -2.3% (Prev. -0.4%). CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Kazimir said markets may be underestimating the extent of further monetary policy action required, with the debate increasingly focused on the magnitude rather than the need for additional measures. He urged policymakers to act before elevated inflation becomes entrenched, rather than waiting for price pressures to broaden and businesses to pass on higher costs. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump said he may have to become "Mr Veto" if Democrats secure a majority in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to a clip of his New York Post interview aired on Fox News. White House has reportedly been preparing contingency plans for months to advance parts of the president's agenda by executive action if Democrats win control of Congress and has prepared for congressional investigations of the administration. OpenAI reportedly lowered its fundraising target by USD 10bln to around USD 20bln at a USD 1.25tln valuation, down from USD 30bln at a USD 1.4tln valuation last month, as an AI stock sell-off and rival Anthropic's anticipated public listing complicate efforts to secure investor commitments, according to the Financial Times. Anthropic plans Japan share sale worth as much as USD 3.5bln ahead of Nasdaq listing, according to a filing. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump reiterated that the conflict with Iran is expected to "end very soon." Trump separately commented on Sunday that he had a good talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu and discussed Iran. US President Trump reportedly could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections, according to MS Now, while a Chinese media report also noted that Trump plans to resume military strikes against Tehran after the US midterm elections. US President Trump is reportedly focused on getting nuclear concessions from Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials are concentrating on limiting any new action against Iran to possibly just days, according to Jerusalem Post. US Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump has not yet decided whether to resume military action against Iran, but would like to resolve the conflict diplomatically. US Central Command posted that the Iranian Foreign Minister's recent claim that Iran has not attacked civilians in neighbouring countries is false, while CENTCOM added that Iran has not only intentionally attacked civilian infrastructure, neighbourhoods, and other facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries, but it has also deliberately attacked civilian mariners at sea. An Israeli source said Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday's midterm elections, while Trump is said to favour letting negotiations continue, according to Axios. Israel's Mossad and IDF appear to be divided on targets for new Iran operations, with Mossad chief Gof drafting plans to advance Israeli PM Netanyahu's push for Iranian regime change, while the IDF is focused primarily on eliminating concrete threats. Furthermore, the potential targets cited include Pickaxe Mountain, new facilities linked to weapons R&D, newly built or repaired ballistic missile production sites and strategic weapons projects, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post. Gulf states warned that a renewed US–Israel strike on Iran could trigger a larger regional war. Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, as diplomats seek to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities after the midterm elections, according to Reuters, citing a source briefed on the negotiations. It was separately reported by Axios that the Iranian delegation left Doha and mediators are working on addressing the remaining concerns of both parties. Furthermore, Reuters reported that Iranian negotiators departed talks with Qatari mediators on Sunday, although their departure was not due to difficulties in negotiations. A draft proposal is being circulated, with a follow-up meeting possible as efforts continue to reach an agreement to end the conflict. Iran has reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Kyodo citing a senior Iranian official. Tehran is said to be willing to adopt a flexible position on nuclear issues if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached, although significant differences remain as the US seeks simultaneous nuclear concessions. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran's willingness to shorten its seven-day proposal to two days demonstrates goodwill, adding that negotiations remain ongoing despite increasing complexity. He said Iran has conveyed its position to Washington and the US must now make a decision, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen before US sanctions are lifted. On the NPT, he said that withdrawal from the NPT remains under discussion, but Iran remains committed to the treaty, and denied that exporting 60%-enriched uranium to a third country was discussed in Doha. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks mediated by Qatar are ongoing and making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. Araghchi also commented that Tehran has studied US VP Vance's message and discussed it at a high level, while he added the US effort to open a broader dialogue is a positive step, but there are no current plans for a meeting with US officials and that Tehran will decide whether talks are direct or indirect after the US accepts Iran's conditions. Furthermore, he stated that the current proposal on the table is the same as Iran's seven-day plan and that mediators presented proposals on the nuclear issue, which Tehran is examining. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran is prepared on both defence and diplomatic fronts, while he added that which route it pursues depends on whether the US acts rationally. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran urged the US to remain rational and prioritise diplomacy over other options. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered senior military commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation with the US and Israel, as well as expand Tehran's retaliation options, despite his top diplomat signalling progress in diplomatic talks, while he told IRGC chiefs that "every level and type of threat must be met with an immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations". IRGC targeted a violating vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sabereen News. UKMTO received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, while it also received a report of an incident 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, in which a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles, although the crew was accounted for and there were no reported environmental impacts. Houthi armed forces military source warned international investors that Saudi Aramco facilities lie fully within the range of the Houthi forces and that any investment in them constitutes a high-risk gamble fraught with losses. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US is pushing for a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine in an effort to unlock an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, but faces resistance in European capitals, according to WSJ. In response to the report, Russia's Kremlin said the realities on the ground currently rule out plans to resume Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky said if Washington wants Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian refineries, Moscow must stop attacking Ukraine's energy system, while he said Ukraine has proposed to the US the purchase of Patriot missiles and is willing to raise the necessary funding. US First Lady Melania Trump posted that the Oleshky ceasefire concluded on November 1 and that the mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people. CRYPTO Bitcoin trades at the lower end of its USD 77.8k-78.76k range, but is down around 5% from Thursday's high before Binance disclosed a hack that would see USD 6.3bln of assets siphoned off. Binance announced the resumption of withdrawals in phases on Sunday, two days after hackers attempted to steal more than USD 6bln from the crypto exchange in the largest cyber theft on record. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region partially shrugged off last Friday's continued tech rout on Wall St, where the Nasdaq briefly dipped into correction territory following weak earnings, while participants were cautious ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday and as they second-guess whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran post-election, although there were some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and financials heading into a widely expected rate hike by the RBA tomorrow and with Westpac shares indecisive following its earnings results. Nikkei 225 saw choppy price action in which it swung between gains and losses, but clawed back initial losses and returned to above the 63,000 level. KOSPI rebounded from an initial dip and outperformed its regional peers, with South Korean President Lee pledging that the government will nearly double AI investment spending next year to KRW 21.3tln, while he also commented that the Future Response Fund will be a strategic investment platform, as well as a fiscal stability mechanism. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned following a recent slew of earnings, including from China's big four banks, which all posted profit growth and with the PBoC meeting with Chinese regulators and major banks to discuss measures to support the capital market. In addition, the central bank announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations and shifted to overnight reverse repos as its main policy anchor, while participants also digested the latest PMI data, which was mixed as the official releases missed expectations and fell into contraction territory, but the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI continued to show an expansion. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES PBoC was reported to meet with the NFRA, CSRC and major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support the capital market, including improvements to a relending programme for share buybacks and stake increases, according to Cailian, citing industry sources. PBoC announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations on Friday, which will move to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. PBoC said other tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repo tools, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day reverse repo operations will mainly take place around tax periods and month-end. The PBoC is to launch a one-year, extendable swap facility for securities, fund and insurance companies on November 3 to support capital market stability, with 31 firms applying for over CNY 100bln in funding. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to appropriately gauge tax revenues and will do her best to estimate tax revenue accurately with higher transparency, adding that they are constantly improving the way to gauge tax revenues. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.3 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1). Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2). Chinese NBS General PMI (Oct) 49.7 (Prev. 50.7). Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1). South Korean Trade Balance (Oct) 42.50B vs. Exp. 37.24B (Prev. 49.97B). South Korean Exports (Oct YY) 93.7% vs. Exp. 93.2% (Prev. 83.7%). South Korean Imports (Oct YY) 36% vs. Exp. 39.9% (Prev. 26%).