Newsquawk米国市場総括－民主党の圧勝後、株式と債券が上昇、原油は急落

SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up. REAR VIEW: Democratic sweep in US midterms; Neocloud names pressured while hyperscalers gain post-midterms; FT reports Trump said US has no immediate plan to strike Iran; US Treasury tweaks issuance guidance; Mixed ISM Services; headline misses, but employment rise & prices fall; Trump pushes back on reports Hegseth could be replaced; DDOG plunge post-earnings; INTC CEO bought stock; AMD & SMCI pare post-earnings gains. COMING UP: Data: Australian Trade Balance (Sep), Swedish CPIF Prelim. (Oct), EU PPI (Sep), US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/31) Events: Norges Bank Policy Announcement, BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement, Banxico Policy Announcement, Canadian Federal Budget Speakers: ECB's Cipollone, Schnabel, Lane, Lagarde; Fed's Hammack, Barkin; BoE's Bailey; BoC's Macklem Supply: Japan, Spain, France Earnings: ConocoPhillips. MARKET WRAP Stocks rallied following the Democratic sweep in the midterm elections. The initial reaction overnight was to sell equity futures, but the move was swiftly pared as Louisiana, a state with significant data center exposure, stayed Republican, supporting hyperscalers. Also supporting hyperscalers, the recent weakness in neocloud stocks has prompted speculation that if neocloud providers lack the capacity to meet elevated AI demand, hyperscalers may step in and absorb the excess demand. There were plenty of earnings to digest, with strong results from AMD, SMCI and MCD, although DDOG earnings disappointed and weighed on other software names, with both AMD and SMCI paring initial strength. Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, and Financials outperformed, while Industrials and Energy were the only sectors to close in the red, with Industrials pressured by concerns over potential Democratic AI regulation. Energy was the clear laggard as crude prices tumbled. Crude prices settled at their lowest levels since the end of August, with Brent dropping over USD 10/bbl at one point. The Democratic sweep reduced expectations of a prolonged US/Iran war, with Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries both stating their intention to end the conflict. Meanwhile, Trump largely accepted the election defeat and acknowledged VP Vance's assessment that the loss was related to the Iran war. Trump also stated that he could work with Democrats on many issues and would probably get along with them unless they sought to be destructive. Crude hit session lows following reports that Trump was considering dismissing War Secretary Hegseth, although Trump later denied these reports. There had also been reports overnight that the US had no immediate plans for further kinetic action against Iran. Yields were lower across the curve following the Democratic sweep, with prospects of reduced fiscal spending and fewer tax cuts under a Democratic Congress supporting Treasuries, alongside concerns that increased regulation could slow growth. The Quarterly Refunding Announcement saw auction sizes for the upcoming quarter left unchanged, but the Treasury tweaked its guidance, dropping the words “at least” when referring to maintaining auction sizes over the next several quarters, potentially opening the door to increased issuance in 2027 - which the TBAC hinted at would be front-end and belly-weighted, away from the expensive long end. In FX, the Dollar was sold following the midterm election results, while cyclical currencies outperformed as stocks rallied. Both silver and gold prices surged in response to the election results and the associated decline in Treasury yields. US ISM SERVICES PMI: The US ISM Services PMI fell to 54.5 from 54.9, below the 54.8 forecast. Within the report, business activity dropped to 53.8 from 56.5, while new orders declined to 55.9 from 59.8. Meanwhile, the employment and prices indices provided some encouragement: prices remained elevated at 73.0 but eased from 74.0, while employment rose to 51.4 from 50.1. Summarising respondents' comments, the general theme was that activity is holding up, but rising fuel, freight and tariff costs, alongside labour constraints, are pressuring margins and making planning more difficult. In turn, Oxford Economics writes that the simultaneous increase in order backlogs (58.0 from 56.6) and longer supplier deliveries (56.7 from 53.2) suggests that broader supply-chain stress, in addition to elevated energy prices, is contributing to price pressures. The report also noted that the historical relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that a headline reading of 54.5 corresponds to a 2.0% increase in real GDP on an annualised basis. Following the release, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 was lowered to 3.4% from 3.7%. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 12+ TICKS HIGHER AT 106-28+ Yields drop across the curve after Democratic sweep. At settlement, 2-year -5.8bps at 4.577%, 3-year -7.2bps at 4.633%, 5-year -8.0bps at 4.684%, 7-year -8.0bps at 4.774%, 10-year -7.4bps at 4.892%, 20-year -6.3bps at 5.304%, 30-year -5.5bps at 5.279%. THE DAY: Treasuries rallied across the curve on Wednesday, led by the belly, in the wake of the Democratic sweep in the midterms. The lower-yield environment was supported by collapsing oil prices, with Brent crude sliding over USD 10/bbl at one point, helping ease inflationary concerns amid prospects of a quicker end to the US/Iran war. Meanwhile, expectations of enhanced regulation could weigh on growth, while further fiscal expansion may be constrained as Republicans will no longer be able to pass their reconciliation 3.0 package, with the prospects of additional tax cuts also reduced under a Democratic Congress. Another consideration is policy uncertainty, with Trump stating ahead of the midterms that he would become "Mr Veto" in the event of a Democratic sweep, potentially making further Democratic spending measures difficult to enact. Regarding the decline in oil prices, further pressure was seen during the session on reports that Trump was considering dismissing Hegseth, although he later denied these reports, while Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries also spoke about ending the US/Iran war. Elsewhere, the Quarterly Refunding Announcement was in focus. Auction sizes for the upcoming quarter were left unchanged, as expected, but the Treasury tweaked its guidance by dropping the “at least” language when referring to maintaining auction sizes over the next several quarters, potentially opening the door to increased issuance sometime in 2027. The TBAC minutes suggested that increases would likely be appropriate in H2 next year. The statement offered little detail on the shape of those changes, initially weighing on the long end, with yields briefly rising. However, the TBAC minutes noted that members generally agreed additional issuance should be concentrated in the 2- to 10-year sector and included a meaningful discussion of potential future changes to 20-year and 30-year issuance. This potentially signals a shift away from the more expensive long end towards the front end and belly, seeing the initial move higher in long-end yields unwind. Buyback operations are set to maintain the status quo, with long-end operations at a maximum of USD 6bln. US data saw the ISM Services PMI fall slightly more than expected amid a decline in new orders and business activity, although employment improved and prices eased marginally, albeit remaining very elevated. The data did little to shift the dial. Supply Notes/Bonds US to sell USD 58bln of 3-year notes on November 9th, USD 42bln of 10-year notes on November 10th and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th. Bills US to sell USD 115bln of 4-wk bills and USD 110bln of 8-wk bills on November 5th; all to settle on November 10th US sold 17-wk bills at a high rate of 4.090%, B/C 3.26x STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 20.3bps (prev. 19.7bps), Mar 40.8bps (prev. 40.7bps). EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 113bln (prev. USD 108bln) on November 3rd SOFR at 3.97% (prev. 3.95%), volumes at USD 3.26tln (prev. USD 3.268tln) on November 3rd NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.23bln (prev. 0.43bln) across 1 counterparty (prev. 3) on November 4th CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 7.97 LOWER AT 88.12/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 8.98 LOWER AT 94.62/BBL The crude complex tumbled after the Democratic sweep reduced the likelihood of an extended US/Iran war. Meanwhile, Trump appeared more conciliatory after the midterms than expected, and the FT reported that he said the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran. WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 97.15/bbl and USD 104.96/bbl, respectively, in the overnight session, but swiftly pared and fell through the US session to settle around lows, as geopolitical rhetoric was constructive. Trump accepted the midterm result and acknowledged it is largely true that the Republicans lost because of the Iran war. In a conciliatory tone, he said he could work with the Democrats on many things and will probably get along with them, unless they want to be destructive. On the US political front, crude was also pressured by separate reports that War Secretary Hegseth could face impeachment by Democrats or dismissal by Trump, amid growing dissatisfaction within the military. However, Trump said War Secretary Hegseth is doing a very good job and he is not replacing him. The downside may reflect Hegseth being seen as one of the administration’s leading supporters of military action against Iran, so his potential exit could imply less appetite to continue the war. Meanwhile, House Democratic Leader Jeffries said they will pass a bill to stop Trump tariffs and end the war, while Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said they will end the war. On US-Iran, Al Jadeed later cited Arab diplomatic sources as saying the course of US-Iranian negotiations will become clearer on Friday and that significant progress has been made. While the tone is constructive at the time of writing, it is worth noting that the midterms had long been touted as a key date in the conflict, with any renewed action widely expected after the vote, a window that has now opened. It remains to be seen what Trump ultimately decides to do, but it appears nothing is planned as of yet. Elsewhere, in the weekly EIA data, crude and gasoline saw surprise draws, while distillates drew much more than expected. Crude production rose to 14.003mln from 13.992mln, while the SPR dipped to 282.2mln from 282.6mln. Lastly, the UAE is reportedly considering building a third crude pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. EQUITIES CLOSES: SPX +1.59% at 7,690, NDX +0.91% at 28,437, DJI +3.03% at 53,357, RUT +1.57% at 2,857. SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary +4.27%, Financials +3.46%, Real Estate +3.19%, Materials +3.06%, Health +3.04%, Communication Services +2.95%, Consumer Staples +2.94%, Technology +0.55%, Utilities +0.43%, Industrials -1.11%, Energy -4.77%. EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +2.38% at 26,479, FTSE 100 +1.79% at 10,829, CAC 40 +1.96% at 8,178, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.32% at 6,287, AEX +1.30% at 1,136, IBEX 35 +3.00% at 19,371, FTSE MIB +2.18% at 51,031, SMI +1.90% at 15,023. MIDTERM STOCK SPECIFICS: Renewables gain First Solar (FSLR), Plug Power (PLUG), Enphase Energy (ENPH). Neoclouds pressured CoreWeave (CRWV), IREN (IREN), Nebius Group (NBIS). Hyperscalers strengthen Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL). Nvidia (NVDA), Vertiv (VRT) and Oracle (ORCL) weighed on by less buildout. SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) saw losses given where they operate their AI supercomputer infrastructure from. STOCK SPECIFICS: Oracle (ORCL): Cancelled $7bln 5yr AI chip leasing agreement w/ Tencent following pressure from Trump admin. AMD (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Reversed a lot of strength post-strong earnings. Arista Networks (ANET): EPS & rev. beat w/ strong next Q outlook. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Poor next Q guidance. Amdocs (DOX): Dismal outlook driven by significant T-Mobile headwinds incl. ongoing legal dispute. Datadog (DDOG): Q3 beat but flat sequential growth. Booking Holdings (BKNG): Profit surpassed Wall St. exp. Amgen (AMGN): Strong Q metrics alongside lifting FY view. Block (XYZ): Top, bottom surpassed Wall St. exp. & raised FY profit view. Riot Platforms (RIOT) signs 15-year, 910MW data center lease with an AI developer worth approx. USD 28bln, marking a major expansion into AI infrastructure. Intel (INTC) CEO bought USD 9.71mln of stock at USD 64.73/shr amid the sell-off. FX The Dollar Index was pressured, with yields also lower, given the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which saw the Greenback soften, as expected. Rabobank writes that, irrespective of the historic moments the midterm elections have provided, the Iran war could remain the bigger focus for inflation and central bank policy, and therefore for the USD. On Wednesday's US data docket, ISM Services fell more than expected, while the internals were mixed: business activity and new orders declined, but encouragingly, employment rose and the price indices fell. Ahead, the US jobs report and Williams on Friday are the highlights, along with earnings from Arm and Qualcomm after-hours today. G10 FX saw gains across the board on the aforementioned Dollar selling, rather than any currency-specific newsflow. The Antipodeans outperformed, buoyed also by risk sentiment, while the Yen was the relative laggard, albeit still eking out gains, as risk-on reduced haven demand. For the Euro, the EZ HICP flash was in line, with core steady at 2.5%, while the final EZ composite PMI was revised lower. Elsewhere, the Netherlands nominated Knot for the role of ECB President. On EUR/USD, Rabobank writes that it has been expecting the pair to hold around 1.12 on a one-month view, and that its expectation of a dip to 1.10 on a three-month view is based on anticipated pressure on the EUR in the run-up to the French presidential election. On the central bank front, the Riksbank lifted its policy rate to 2.00%, in line with Wall St. consensus, and said if the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, it is likely that the policy rate will be raised further in the coming year. On inflation, the bank said risks are tilted to the upside due to the ongoing Middle East crisis and supply disruptions. In Poland, the NBP left rates on hold at 3.75%, as widely anticipated. The BCB decision is due later on Wednesday. Pantheon says the country's post-election turmoil has left the Copom little choice but to pause, and expects further easing eventually, although BRL weakness and fiscal risks threaten to keep rates high.