Newsquawk デイリー米国寄り付きニュース - 2026年11月13日

European bourses were initially subdued but now flat/firmer; NVIDIA +2.2% pre-market, finding some reprieve after recent selling pressure. DXY flat into US PPI, USD/JPY subject to volatile activity as jawboning picks up. Fixed bearish and at fresh WTD lows into US PPI and Fed speak. Crude rangebound for the most part, but under pressure most recently. Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Oct); Informal Meeting of EU Leaders (Dublin); speakers including Fed's Daly, Collins, Bowman & Jefferson. Credit Ratings including Fitch on Germany, S&P on Italy and Morningstar DBRS on the UK. SNAPSHOT As of 10:30GMT / 05:30EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include US PPI (Oct); Informal Meeting of EU Leaders (Dublin); speakers including Fed's Daly, Collins, Bowman & Jefferson. Credit Ratings including Fitch on Germany, S&P on Italy and Morningstar DBRS on the UK. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) are flat/firmer, conforming to the mostly subdued action seen in the APAC session. Focus remains on the AI situation, following Huang’s resignation from Nvidia, with major tech names such as SK Hynix (-3%) and Samsung Electronics (-1%) falling in Korean trade. Over in China, the magnitudes are to a larger extent, with woes growing about the US potentially slapping China with more stringent chip-related bans. The likes of Tencent (-3%) slipped overnight, whilst smaller companies such as MiniMax (-8%) were also hit. European sectors are mixed. Energy tops the pile, with oil prices a little firmer today; Optimised Personal Care and Food Beverage & Tobacco complete the top three. To the downside resides Consumer Products (hit by Richemont post-earnings), whilst Basic Resources is pressured by the selling in underlying metals. Key Movers: Richemont (-6.9%, sales rose Y/Y but gold costs weighed on underlying gross margin), Generali (-1.3%, reported EUR 1.5bln disaster hit), Acciona (-6%, lifted 2026 EBITDA outlook but asset rotation missed target. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that its USD 1bln Mexico infrastructure deal is seen at risk). US equity futures are mixed, following the sentiment set out in Europe. The NQ (U/C) remains the slight underperformer this morning vs ES (+0.2%), with focus still on the fallout from Huang’s resignation from Nvidia. However, shares are currently firmer by c. 2.2% in pre-market trade, finding some reprieve after recent selling pressure. Attention ahead will turn back to monetary policy with US PPI scheduled, and also a few Fed speakers. FX G10s are mixed against the flat USD. EUR and GBP both hold steady, whilst the Antipodeans are the slight underperformers, given the risk tone. However, the risk tone is not quite displayed fully, with the typical havens ( CHF and JPY) also posting mild losses this morning. DXY trades within a 103.05-103.23 range and is set to end the week firmer by c. 1.5%. The index caught a bid earlier in the week following hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Waller, who indicated his openness to a 50bps hike; the subsequent hotter-than-expected CPI report also helped DXY move higher. The days following were a bit more quiet from a US-standpoint, but the geopolitical environment remained volatile. The US-Russia-Ukraine talks yielded no significant progress (but were touted to be productive), whilst Iranian officials warned that distant US bases could become a target should they attack Tehran again. Next up for the USD will be the US PPI report (13:30 GMT), which will help forecasters in predicting the PCE report due later this month. Also on the agenda are a few Fed speakers, dotted throughout the day. Since Waller, none of his colleagues have expressed their openness to a larger 50bps hike in December; markets will await whether anyone else will join him. The week has also seen USD/JPY breach beyond the 160.00 mark, with the pair up 1.2% WTD. Pressure in the JPY was largely attributed to this week’s USD strength, and the subsequent widening of yield differentials between the Fed and BoJ. The latest leg higher in the pair has brought some Japanese officials out of the woodwork, to offer some renewed verbal intervention – albeit to no avail. Yesterday, top currency diplomat Mimura mentioned that the JPY’s recent fall is too rapid, reminding the market of the aggressive action taken in the summer. Today, Japanese PM Takaichi said that they are in close contact with the US authorities regarding FX, whilst Finance Minister Katayama explicitly mentioned that they are seeing one-sided and rapid FX moves and will communicate with the US Treasury accordingly. Jawboning which ultimately failed to push the USD/JPY back lower. An interesting move was seen today at around 06:30 London time, which saw the pair get whacked from above the 160.00 level to the mid 159.00 mark. Traders may speculate that this was the MoF/BoJ defending the level to some small degree. FIXED INCOME In short, a bearish start to the final session of the week for fixed income, awaiting US PPI for further insight into PCE after the week’s CPI release and commentary from Fed’s Waller, who added 50bps into the discussion around December. Into that, USTs are at a 105-07 WTD low, off by over two full points on the week as a whole. Amidst this, the 10yr yield is at a 5.135% high, the highest since October 21st. PPI is the day’s main event, before a handful of Fed speakers, with pricing via the CME for December fully implying a hike, with an 88% chance of 25bps and a 12% chance of 50bps. Bunds also lower, holding around a 121.92 base with downside of around 50 ticks. Also at a WTD base, and just over 100 ticks lower for that period as it stands. Specifics today are a little light, final inflation measures not moving the dial while ECB speak hasn’t been too pertinent for policy, as we approach an expected December hike. Gilts in-fitting, and under pressure as such. 85.14 is today’s base, also a WTD low and off by about 150 ticks vs Monday’s open. Specifics also somewhat light this morning, awaiting a signal from the US events. For the UK, next week is significant as the Milburn NEET review hits, and will be scoured for what (if any) welfare adjustments PM Burnham makes; and, potentially more pertinently, the Labour Party’s opposition to such moves. Also, Burnham has a key speech on Monday ahead of his visit to the EU on Friday; the latest reads suggest the details are still being finalised, but there should be some progress on relations with the bloc. Australia sold AUD 1.0bln in 1.0% November 2031 bonds, b/c 4.03, avg. yield 4.8193%. COMMODITIES Crude contained, as the overnight updates were pertinent but not sufficient to move the dial vs the intervention by US President Trump via Truth on Thursday. Now, we await a US response to the latest Iranian action, and an update on the touted Vance-Rezaei talks post-Trump’s post. Brent was essentially unchanged, in USD 95.06-96.81/bbl parameters. Upside was seen overnight and then again in the early hours on Iran targeting a radar site, and an energy tanker hitting a mine in Hormuz, respectively. However, neither update has been sufficient to move the benchmark out of the range that has held since mid-APAC trade. More recently, some modest pressure has emerged sending Brent back towards the mentioned low, but without a specific driver behind it. Dutch TTF supported, eclipsed EUR 97/MWh overnight, but has since faded back towards the EUR 93/MWh handle, though still firmer. Upside on the above geopols, lack of concrete Ukraine-Russia progress as Russia places the onus on the EU to pick a single representative to speak for the bloc, and as the region’s forecasts turn colder once again. XAU firmer, holding around USD 3.9k/oz. Benefitting from the breather seen in the USD, but capped by the ongoing climb in global yields. Awaiting the US PPI data and session’s Fed speak for insight into the December Fed. Otherwise, the general risk tone is mixed/tepid. IEA Oil Market Report – November 2026: World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7mln bpd in 2026, to 102.3mln bpd, before rebounding by 2mln bpd in 2027. Global oil supplies surged by 2.3mln bpd to 105.4mln bpd in October, lifting output by an extraordinary 5.3mln bpd since August. Iranian Oil Minister said that the amount of gas lost by the South Pars platform has been compensated by other platforms; all the employees of the platform that was caught in the fire were rescued, will soon continue work on this platform. Qatar set December Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai USD -10/bbl; land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai USD -9.5/bbl. US pressure has cut Cuba off from global oil supplies, forcing it to rely on US fuel, according to Wall Street Journal. ExxonMobil (XOM) made a final investment decision for its Longtail development offshore Guyana, planning an additional USD 12.5bln investment, with the project expected to include approximately 45 subsea wells. TRADE/TARIFFS An Indian trade official said exports to the US in Apr–Oct 2026 rose to USD 59.52bln (prev. USD 51.99bln Y/Y). MOFCOM said China and the EU discuss preparations for the next round of trade talks. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick agreed to testify before Congress, according to a spokesperson cited by NBC. Malaysia Trade Ministry said Malaysia has never authorised Megaspeed International and its Malaysian affiliate Speedmatrix. Speedmatrix brought servers and AI chips into the country, with Customs reviewing potential re-exports. Exploring additional control measures while working closely with Singapore and US authorities. Chinese official said China is very concerned regarding EU's protectionist measures, while China urges Belgium and Luxembourg to play an active role in ties. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES Germany's 2027 budget provides for total spending of EUR 561bln and investment of EUR 62bln. Britain's tech sector emerges as a key driver for UK economic growth and is expanding at its fastest pace in nearly half a decade, according to FT analysis of official statistics. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Chinese AI models are dangerous and have no guardrails, adds Chinese models were involved in the commercial refrigerator hacker attacks in Europe. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European Employment Change Prel (Q3 QQ) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%). European Employment Change Prel (Q3 YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%). European Trade Balance (Sep) -10.3B vs. Exp. -4.5B (Prev. -16.6B). European GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3 YY) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%). European GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%). Italian Trade Balance (Sep) 2.083B vs. Exp. 1.85B (Prev. 1.773B). Spanish Core CPI Final (Oct YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%). Spanish HICP Final (Oct MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish CPI Final (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%). Spanish CPI Final (Oct MM) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%). Spanish HICP Final (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 5.0%). French CPI Final (Oct YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.1%). French HICP Final (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%). French CPI Final (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.3%). French HICP Final (Oct YY) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.4%). German Wholesale Prices (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.9%). German Wholesale Prices (Oct YY) 8.8% (Prev. 8.7%). CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Williams (voter) said AI investment levels can respond to changes in interest rates and noted evidence shows a K-shaped economy. Fed's Williams (voter) said the economy has been resilient and growth has been strong, adds US economy is getting stronger but not overheating and that inflation is too high. Inflation is stubbornly persistent and high. Fed has been in a steady cadence of collecting data. Fed will need to take actions over time to get inflation back to 2%. Fed still has work to do to get monetary policy to the right place. NY Fed said the Fed made no FX market intervention in Q3, while the US Treasury bought Japanese yen in FX markets over the same period. BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said hard to predict BoJ's profits in general and there is no significant market impact from ETF sales so far, adds not planning a further review of ETF sales at this time. ECB's Schnabel said the issue facing Europe is a lack of scale. PBoC injected CNY 300bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 364bln in overnight reverse repos. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7152 vs exp. 6.6756 (prev. 6.7174). NBP's Janczyk said they may keep rates unchanged in December. NBP Governor said that they must remain independent as political pressure could make reaching price stability more difficult. Polish Central Bank's Janczyk said it is possible that Poland will not change rates in December. CNB Minutes (Nov): The Bank Board assessed the risks and uncertainties of the outlook for the fulfilment of the inflation target as inflationary overall. There was a consensus that domestic demand was resilient for now and there were no visible signs of a cooling due to the higher energy prices. In a discussion of domestic inflation, Jan Kubíček drew attention to the repeatedly slightly higher-than-expected core inflation readings. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US Senate Democratic leader Schumer said he has the votes to continue as Democratic leader. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia hits a cargo vessel in the Black Sea, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. US envoy Kushner said regarding Russia-Ukraine talks that both sides have now agreed to expand the next round of negotiations to include our European partners, we are also working towards what would be the largest prisoner exchange of the war. Drone debris causes fire at an industrial facility in Russia's Volgograd. Ukrainian President Zelensky said American side made progress with regards to Europe and we will work on closest time for the next meeting with all the negotiators. Europe will have a seat at the table of the next meeting. We will have more meetings and hope to work on de-escalation and ceasefires. US envoy Kushner said had good discussions with Zelensky and very intense talks over the last three days, adds had detailed and productive meeting with Russian President Putin and finalized POW exchange with Putin and Zelensky. Russian President Putin is willing to give Europeans a seat on the table. Cannot conclude a deal without Europeans at the table. Talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US envoys Witkoff and Kushner have ended. MIDDLE EAST Iran's General Izadi said "our strikes will not only be in the region and on occupied Palestinian land, but also outside the region", Al Mayadeen reported. The IAEA is reportedly concerned that Iran has not let it examine information or inspect Isfahan uranium enrichment plant declared in June 2025. Iran's Advisor to the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard said that "distant American bases are on our target list". US President Trump said in an interview with Stephen A. Smith that maybe the Iran war was unpopular because of gas prices and that gas prices seemed to have the biggest impact on the midterms. Ending the Iran war a little bit more 'civilly' and doing it the long way at the request of some nations, with Qatar, UAE and Bahrain preferring a waiting period. Source on X noted that following US airstrikes on Sirik, two large explosions have been heard in Bandar Lengeh, southern Iran, with an air defence site reportedly targeted. IRGC Navy said a carrier carrying "liquified gas" hit a sea mine east of Hormuz and exploded, while it warned ships against entering restricted Hormuz routes. IRGC said it destroyed a US early‑warning radar on Bahrain Island in retaliation for an attack on a telecom tower in Sirik. OTHERS China conducts unannounced Pacific drills in a 'silent intimidation' of Taiwan, according to officials cited by Reuters. CRYPTO Bitcoin and Ethereum both extend lower, with the former falling beneath the USD 70k mark, and the latter beneath USD 2k. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy and ultimately negative performances stateside in the fallout from Nvidia and co-founder Jensen Huang's resignation. ASX 200 declined with nearly all sectors subdued, while only energy and telecoms showed resilience. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 61,000 level with mixed price action seen in tech stocks following the Nvidia fallout, as Jensen Huang's exit and the appointment of an interim CEO reduced some uncertainty. KOSPI swung between gains and losses amid tech headwinds and as the latest Export and Import Prices from South Korea slowed from the previous, but continued to show double-digit percentage growth. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower amid some concerns regarding China's future access to NVIDIA chips in the fallout from Huang's extramarital affairs scandal, while downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned after the PBoC injected liquidity via both overnight and 7-day reverse repo operations. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said seeing one-sided, rapid forex moves, adds will communicate with the US Treasury and respond accordingly. Confirms they decided to bring forward utility subsidies for winter, tapping reserve funds. Japanese PM Takaichi said won't comment on FX but stated they are in close contact with US financial authorities on FX and will work to maintain an orderly forex market. Hong Kong revises its 2026 GDP Forecast to 4.8% (prev. 3.5-4.5%). Japan is reportedly looking at JPY 60tln defence spending for the five year period from 2027-2031, Kyodo reported citing sources. Japanese PM Takaichi said consumption tax cut will be reflected in product prices. Goldman Sachs sees China 2027 GDP growth at 4.5%. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said President Xi to attend 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, according to Xinhua. Japan approves JPY 652bln reserve fund use for winter subsidies. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese Current Account Prel (Q3) 276.1B (Prev. 193.7B). Chinese New Yuan Loans (Oct) -100.0B vs. Exp. 20B (Prev. 1080.0B). Chinese Total Social Financing (Oct) 1150.0B vs. Exp. 1420B (Prev. 3550.0B). Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth (Oct YY) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.8%). Chinese M2 Money Supply (Oct YY) 7.1% vs. Exp. 7.2% (Prev. 7.2%). New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Oct) 54.9 (Prev. 56.5).