Newsquawk 欧州デイリー・オープニングニュース - 2026年11月3日

US equity futures were varied ahead of the US midterm elections and with Apple (-2.7%) ultimately declining post-earnings. AUD/USD ultimately weakened after the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85% via a 6-3 vote but stopped short of signalling another hike in December. Crude futures attempted to nurse losses after slumping by around 8% on Monday; 10yr UST futures slightly pulled back after gaining yesterday. APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open. Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Oct), US JOLTS (Sep), US Midterm Elections. Speakers include BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Supply from UK & Germany. Earnings from Pfizer, AMD & Super Micro. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 Closed ASX 200 +0.3% Hang Seng +0.3% Shanghai Comp -1.0% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.6% DAX Dec'26 -0.9% ES Dec'26 -0.2% NQ Dec'26 -0.2% FX DXY -0.1% (101.73) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1194) USD/JPY -0.1% (157.84) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3415) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -1.5 ticks Bund Dec'26 -7 ticks US 10yr Yield - German 10yr Yield 3.30% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +1.1% Brent Jan'27 +1.1% Spot Gold -0.7% LME Copper -2.3% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.1% Ethereum -0.1% As of 06:30GMT / 01:30EST Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said "No" to striking Iran after elections, according to a Pool Report. US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won't have a nuclear weapon. US President Trump posted: "Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran. Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen! US President Trump told N12 News that he is in no hurry to resume the war and that they are crippling Iran's economy, while he also stated that the Iranian leadership doesn't have the sense of urgency that he thought there would be, but added that they want a deal more than at any point since the beginning of the war. US VP Vance said some progress was made on Iran and will see if we can make some more, while he added they have not set deadlines to resume strikes and had a number of good talks with Iranians. CIA Director Ratcliffe was reportedly advising US President Trump to maintain the 'no war, no deal' status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, while he said the prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions or create enough instability in Iran that citizens revolt, according to sources cited by Axios's Ravid. US and Iran were reportedly on the verge of a preliminary agreement, with the coming hours to be decisive, according to ILNA citing Al Shanara News Agency. A breakthrough in US-Iranian negotiations was reportedly seen after Qatari mediation successfully overcame procedural obstacles, according to Al Jadeed, citing a diplomatic source. The US is reportedly leaning towards not making the nuclear issue a priority and instead including it within the broader negotiation framework, while Washington's objective is to secure a breakthrough on the nuclear file that President Trump could present to the American public in exchange for concessions on other issues in Iran's favour. Israel's UN Ambassador Danon said neither Israel nor the US were discussing launching a nuclear strike against Iran, while adding that Israel would support the US resolution on Iran, according to Al Arabiya. In Israel, the next two months are reportedly being marked as a 'window of opportunity' facing the IDF and the American Central Command for an attack on Iran, according to Kan News. Qatari mediators have drafted a three-day sequence of confidence-building measures to resume direct US-Iran talks, and are awaiting feedback from both nations, according to Axios citing sources. It was separately reported that Qatari mediators were travelling to Tehran for talks regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks as President Trump touts the possibility of a diplomatic deal, while the attacks were described as small-scale and defensive, aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by WSJ. US source told the Jerusalem Post that the US was behind the attack on Qeshm Island and stated it was a small incident intended for self-defence, while a US official cited by Axios's Ravid stated that the IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night and a US fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self-defence, with the attack also described as a small incident. IRGC captured two American MQM-170 drones over Qeshm Island and destroyed the 55th US MQ-9 drone east of the Strait of Hormuz, Press TV reported. Iranian state news agency reported that Israeli forces entered Syria's Quneitra province. Saudi Defence Minister said he discussed de‑escalation efforts in the region and the Houthis' continued attacks during a call with US Secretary of Defence Hegseth. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks were mixed as most major US indices fell, driven primarily by a renewed afternoon sell-off in Tech, despite optimism surrounding US-Iran diplomacy, although the majority of sectors finished in the green, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 also gained, highlighting positive market breadth. Tech and energy led the downside, while Health Care and Communication Services also finished lower. Within the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) came under pressure after announcing a USD 10bln debt offering and USD 10bln equity offering, while Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) both tumbled after MRVL agreed to acquire LITE in a USD 115bln all-stock deal. SPX -0.51% at 7,541, NDX -1.39% at 27,990, DJI +0.41% at 51,989, RUT -0.21% at 2,806. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE USTR Greer said Trump had determined that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa were engaging in practices that breached AGOA eligibility criteria. South African government said it will support affected sectors and protect national interests, as well as stated that the US remains an important trade and investment partner, while it acknowledged the withdrawal of AGOA benefits and recognised the concern for businesses. China's MOFCOM said Vice Minister Li met with a US agricultural trade delegation, with both sides exchanging views on China-US economic and trade relations and agricultural trade cooperation. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed SLOOS stated that over Q3, banks reported that lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms were basically unchanged, while standards tightened for C&I loans to small firms. US Treasury Financing Estimates (Q4): Projected borrowing of 618bln (vs guided 628bln) in privately held net marketable debt, assuming an end-Dec cash balance of USD 850bln (vs guided 850bln). Apple (AAPL) Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 2.10 (exp. 1.99), Revenue 114.5bln (exp. 113.4bln); Net 30.7bln (exp. 29bln); Operating income 35.6bln (exp. 34.6bln); Operating expenses 19.2bln, Products revenue 82.90bln (exp. 81.85bln), iPhone revenue 57.58bln (exp. 56.49bln), Services revenue 31.57bln (exp. 31.58bln), Mac revenue 10.79bln (exp. 9.70bln), iPad revenue 6.23bln (exp. 6.89bln), Wearables, Home & Accessories revenue 8.30bln (exp. 9.00bln), Americas revenue 48.68bln (exp. 48.51bln), Greater China revenue 17.54bln (exp. 18.75bln); Co. shares were down 2.7% after-hours. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside, where most major indices were negative, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped into a correction, although the majority of US sectors finished in the green and oil prices slumped 8% due to hopes for diplomacy, while demand is contained overnight amid the holiday closure in Japan and cautiousness heading into the US midterm elections. ASX 200 was indecisive heading into the RBA announcement, but finished in the green after the central bank hiked rates as expected, with the decision made by 6-3 votes, while it remained hawkish but stopped short of signalling a December hike. KOSPI underperformed following the tech rout stateside and despite the softer-than-expected CPI data, which printed 2.8% vs Exp. 2.9%, but remained above the central bank's medium-term target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed despite authorities launching a renewed effort to stabilise the stock market, including measures to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading. US equity futures were varied ahead of the US midterm elections and with Apple ultimately declining post-earnings despite beating on top and bottom lines, as the iPhone maker's revenue from China and margin forecasts disappointed. European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% on Monday. FX DXY struggled for direction in quiet FX trade and after softening yesterday amid the mixed performances in its major counterparts, while currency-moving catalysts remained light as participants await the US midterm elections and with geopolitical headlines providing mixed signals, as US President Trump stated that a deal with Iran could happen, although it was also reported that the US conducted a small-scale, defensive strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. EUR/USD kept afloat after recent gains but with the single currency remaining beneath the 1.1200 handle. GBP/USD eked slight gains in range-bound trade after yesterday's indecision amid quiet pertinent newsflow, although there were reports that the UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports. USD/JPY took a breather after stalling just beneath the 158.00 handle and amid the absence of participants in Japan. Antipodeans were mixed, with AUD/USD ultimately weakening after the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, through a 6-3 vote, while it remained hawkish and raised CPI forecasts but stopped short of signalling another hike in December. Furthermore, RBA Governor Bullock stated at the post-meeting press conference that she doesn't know what the next rate move will be and that it is probably good to wait now and see incoming data. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7150 vs exp. 6.6489 (prev. 6.7146). PBoC announced it will raise the forex reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts from 4% to 6% effective November 15th, while the measure is aimed at improving the management of foreign currency liquidity in financial institutions. FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures slightly pulled back after gaining yesterday alongside a slide in oil prices, while demand was contained as cash treasuries trading was shut overnight owing to the holiday closure in Tokyo. Bund futures marginally declined as the recent upward momentum stalled ahead of German supply. COMMODITIES Crude futures attempted to nurse losses after slumping by around 8% on Monday, with WTI slipping back beneath the USD 100/bbl level amid hopes for diplomacy following a slew of geopolitical headlines, including comments from US President Trump, who responded 'no' when asked if he was considering striking Iran after the midterms, while he also stated Iran wants a settlement as soon as possible and that it could happen. Trump was also said to be in no hurry to resume the war, and VP Vance noted that some progress was made on Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that Iran had presented its conditions and plan. Nonetheless, the partial rebound was facilitated by reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran's Qeshm Island, while the attack was described as small-scale, defensive and aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Venezuela's Foreign Minister and discussed energy and the financial sector. Spot gold faded the previous day's rebound, which had coincided with softer yields and a retreat in oil. Copper futures steadily retreated amid the mostly negative sentiment in the region, including in its largest buyer, China. CRYPTO Bitcoin traded indecisively and failed to sustain a brief return to above the USD 77,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES PBoC Deputy Governor said they will continue to promote transformation of monetary policy framework, while they will enrich the supply of renminbi assets for global investors, and consolidate Hong Kong's position as an offshore yuan business hub. China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said that economic momentum is shifting to new drivers and building Hong Kong well remains a key strategy, while he views Hong Kong's five-year plan with utmost confidence and will continue to offer full support for Hong Kong. He also stated they will build a free and open economic environment in Hong Kong. RBA raised its Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with three members favouring a hold at 4.60%. RBA noted that inflation remains elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside, and revised its inflation outlook materially higher in its updated staff forecasts, while it stated that inflation is now expected to remain elevated through much of 2027, with the top of the 2–3% target range not reached until late 2027. The Board reiterated its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and said monetary policy remains well positioned to respond to developments, while it remains focused on price stability and full employment. It also noted that rate hikes since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that output growth is expected to slow further over the coming year, easing capacity pressures and helping inflation return to the target. RBA Governor Bullock said the rate rise was needed to get inflation down and that policy tightening is to address local capacity pressures, while she added that growth will need to remain subdued and unemployment is to rise further. Bullock stated some pain now will prevent further pain down the track, as well as stated that she doesn't know what the next rate move will be and is not offering guidance, but added it is probably good to wait now and see incoming data. DATA RECAP South Korean CPI (Oct MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%) South Korean CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia said it carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine's energy facilities, while it was also reported that an oil refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack. US envoy Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th and that trilateral talks will cover ending the war and post-war security agreements, as well as de-escalation and aid measures, while he also stated that US officials are to meet this week in Brussels with France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO representatives to discuss Ukraine. US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery program for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg. OTHER North Korea said it tested a strategic cruise missile on Monday and that the test was of vertical-strike flight characteristics. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports.