今週の注目 – 2026年11月16～20日：米小売売上高、FOMC議事要旨、中国活動データ、中国人民銀行LPR、RBA議事要旨、英国インフレ率・雇用統計など

SUN: Japanese GDP Prelim (Q3) MON: ASEAN Summit (16-18 Nov), Chinese Activity Data (Oct), Swiss GDP Flash (Q3), EZ Industrial Production (Sep), US NY Fed Manufacturing (Nov), Canadian CPI (Oct) TUE: RBA Minutes (Nov), NBH Policy Announcement (Nov), ASEAN Summit (16-18 Nov), UK Unemployment Rate (Sep), EZ/German ZEW Survey (Nov), Italian Final CPI (Oct), US Retail Sales (Oct), US Import/Export Prices (Oct), US Industrial Production (Oct), Japanese Balance of Trade (Oct) WED: FOMC Minutes (Oct), ECB Financial Stability Review (Nov), Bank Indonesia Policy Announcement (Nov), APEC Leaders' Summit (18-19 Nov), ASEAN Summit (16-18 Nov), Australian Wage Price Index (Q3), UK Inflation (Oct), EZ Final CPI (Oct), US Housing Starts/Building Permits (Oct) THU: SARB Policy Announcement (Nov), Banxico Minutes (Nov), APEC Leaders' Summit (18-19 Nov), Australian Jobs (Oct), US Philly Fed Index (Nov), Canadian PPI (Oct), Japanese CPI (Oct) FRI: Chinese LPR (Nov), UK-EU Summit, Moody's Credit Review on UK, German PPI (Oct), Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), UK Retail Sales (Oct), UK PSNB (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov), US UoM Survey Final (Nov), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep) WEEK AHEAD CHINESE ACTIVITY DATA (MON): October Industrial Production is expected to rise 5.3% Y/Y (prev. 5.5%), Retail Sales by 0.8% (prev. 1.1%), while YTD Fixed Asset Investment is forecast to decline 6.9-7.0% (prev. -7.2%). The data follows a weak start to Q4, with both official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs slipping back into contraction, and is expected to underscore the continued divergence between resilient export-oriented industry and weak domestic demand. Goldman Sachs expects base effects to weigh on retail sales in Q4. Weaker-than-expected readings would increase pressure on Beijing to step up support as it seeks to meet its 4.5-5.0% growth target. CANADIAN CPI (MON): Next week's inflation data will be monitored by policymakers for signs of an energy-induced broadening effect, although Governing Council members have noted that, given the uncertainty, a careful approach to policy is needed. Minutes from the BoC's October meeting, at which it hiked by 25bps, showed that members acknowledged inflation expectations may have become more sensitive to recent price changes. Additionally, members noted that rising cost pressures would eventually be reflected in core measures of inflation. September CPI figures showed the headline picked up slightly to 3.1% from 3.0%, while the BoC Core Measures Average remained at 2.0%. Money market pricing assigns a 60% chance of a 25bps hike in December. RBA MINUTES (TUE): The RBA will release the minutes from its November 2nd-3rd meeting on Tuesday, where it hiked rates by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with the dissenters favouring a pause. The accompanying statement and forecasts were hawkish, with the RBA reiterating its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and projecting that inflation would remain elevated through much of 2027, only reaching the top of its 2-3% target range in late 2027. Inflation forecasts were revised materially higher, while unemployment projections were also raised, although the forecasts assumed the Cash Rate would peak at 4.9% in June 2027. The RBA acknowledged that previous hikes had tightened financial conditions and that slower growth should help ease capacity pressures. At the press conference, Governor Bullock stressed that further restraint was necessary to bring inflation down, although she offered no guidance on the next rate move and suggested it would be appropriate to wait and assess incoming data. The decision ultimately prompted a dovish market reaction, as the RBA stopped short of signalling another hike in December. Attention in the minutes will therefore centre on the extent of support for further tightening, the arguments raised by the three dissenters and whether policymakers favour a period of assessment before considering additional hikes. UK JOBS REPORT (TUE): August’s series showed a better-than-expected labour market, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.7% (prev. 4.9%) while wage growth remained relatively stable, though the ONS highlighted how wage growth incl. bonuses were at their lowest for nearly six years. The BoE’s November MPR looks for a tighter labour market vs July, with the unemployment rate expected to average 4.8% into Q4 and remain there through Q2-2027. On wages, they have modestly upgraded their view; a point of note as, in the months ahead at least, the wage components will be heavily scrutinised for evidence of second round effects from the ongoing energy shock, the presence of which would work to validate the hawkish view around the BoE. US RETAIL SALES (TUE): The consensus expects October retail sales to rise +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.8%), with the control group seen rising by +0.4% M/M (prev. 0.1%). The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed total retail spending rose 0.2% M/M to USD 561.7bln in October, the slowest pace since November 2025. Core retail spending rose 0.3% M/M to USD 454.2bln. The NRF said a strong Halloween season and an early start to holiday promotions stopped the figure from being lower, and noted that households are managing budgets carefully and timing purchases around sales. The annual rate of spending rose in nine of the 11 sectors tracked by the report, led by a rise in electronics and appliances amid tech price hikes; furniture and home furnishings fell in October, likely hurt by housing market conditions as mortgage rates rose. Leisure spending fell on an annual basis, though saw gains in the month. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s consumer checkpoint data showed total card spending per household rising by +5.8% Y/Y in October (vs 6.2% Y/Y in September), and spending ex-gasoline rose +4.6% Y/Y (prev. 5.1%). BofA says this suggests consumer spending remains solid even as momentum moderates. Growth cooled across a number of discretionary categories, and services remained the main driver. It also said that spending growth has converged across income groups, supported by solid after-tax wage growth. Meanwhile, in terms of holiday spending, BofA says it is off to a strong start, running well above last year’s levels, led by online purchases. However, average transaction values are declining, which BofA says points to increasingly value-conscious consumers. FOMC MINUTES (WED): The minutes will provide an account of the October 28th meeting, where the Fed held rates at 3.75-4.00%, as expected, although the decision was not unanimous, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting in favour of a 25bps hike. Logan and Kashkari, who dissented in favour of tighter policy in July, sided with the majority. The statement upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" and added language emphasising that incoming information would help determine the appropriate policy stance needed to return inflation to the 2% target, reinforcing its data-dependent approach. The minutes may be viewed as somewhat stale, given they predate the hotter-than-expected October CPI report, which ignited debate around a potential 50bps hike in December. Ahead of the CPI release, Fed Governor Waller suggested a half-point hike may be needed in December if October core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, a threshold subsequently met by the report. Since then, Goolsbee has described the inflation data as bordering on disturbing, while Logan said it may be possible to raise interest rates more rapidly this winter than the Fed has done so far. Attention will therefore centre on the extent of support for further tightening among policymakers and whether there was already an appetite for accelerating the pace of hikes. Inflation has increasingly become the Fed's primary concern, with the strong October jobs report providing policymakers with greater scope to focus on returning inflation to target. UK INFLATION (WED): In focus to see if the pipeline of price pressures the BoE spoke about is more evident or not. September’s series hit 3.5% Y/Y, with further upside expected over the winter period and from points such as the Ofgem price cap increase. For October’s series, the BoE’s November MPR looks for the headline at 3.73%, vs 3.2% from the July MPR. The breakdown has Core at 2.9% Y/Y, and Services up to 3.9% Y/Y, from 2.8% and 3.7% respectively. Upside that justifies the hike delivered in November, and keeps the BoE on track to tighten once again. Albeit, if in-line with the BoE’s view, the series does not massively inform on the December vs February debate for the next move. SARB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): At its last meeting, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised rates by 25bps to 7.25%, as expected. Governor Kganyago said the committee also discussed a 50bps hike and a hold, and described policy as marginally restrictive before the hike. He added that inflation must return to the 3% target as the fuel price shock fades, while the SARB said adverse scenarios imply one or two additional hikes. In more recent comments in mid-October, Kganyago said upside risks to inflation remain, that he expects CPI to return to the 3% target only in 2028, and that policy rates are moderately restrictive and consistent with the outlook. Since the last meeting, the SARB’s H1 Monetary Policy Review noted that global inflation rose in H1 2026 as the Middle East conflict disrupted energy supplies, widened refinery margins and lifted transport and production costs. The report added that policy must guard against the risk that persistent fuel, administered price and food shocks become embedded in expectations and wages, thereby undermining the credibility of the target. Attention therefore remains on the Middle East conflict and any possible resolution, with the recent fall in oil prices a welcome relief. AUSTRALIAN JOBS (THU): Employment Change is expected at +27.5K (prev. -39.3K), with the Unemployment Rate seen steady at 4.7%. September's report surprised to the downside, with employment falling 39.3K (exp. +20K) and the unemployment rate rising to 4.7%. Westpac (exp. +30K, 4.7%) said some of the weakness may reflect an unwinding of residual seasonality from recent survey design changes, but noted that the labour market is loosening gradually as jobs growth lags population growth. Business surveys point to some downside risk, while early signs of rising retrenchments remain a key signal to watch. The data will be the first since the RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote, with Governor Bullock flagging that it was a good time to "take stock", which Westpac and the market interpreted as signalling a pause in December. Westpac sees the RBA as done hiking and expects unemployment to peak above 5%. CHINESE LPR (FRI): The PBoC is expected to maintain its 1yr LPR at 3.00% and 5yr LPR at 3.50%, marking an 18th consecutive month of unchanged rates. This will be the first LPR setting since the PBoC formally adopted the overnight reverse repo rate as its main policy rate, set at 1.25%, below the previous 7-day reverse repo benchmark of 1.40%. Pantheon Macroeconomics previously suggested the shift could represent a de facto 15bps cut. Monday's activity data will be key, with a notable downside surprise likely to raise expectations for further support before year-end. UK RETAIL SALES (FRI): BRC’s October monitor showed a slowdown in activity ahead of the Black Friday spending period and Christmas thereafter, while spending trends followed the usual seasonal patterns. Overall, BRC surmised that consumers remained cautious into the October budget, and expected higher energy costs thereafter. WEEK IN REVIEW NEW ZEALAND ELECTION (SAT): New Zealand's general election produced no outright majority for either major party, with incumbent PM Luxon's centre-right National Party securing 42 seats against Labour's 36, both short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. However, National's existing coalition partners, ACT (13 seats) and NZ First (12 seats), would give the governing bloc a combined 67 seats, potentially allowing Luxon to remain in power, subject to final results and coalition agreements. Meanwhile, The Opportunity Party entered parliament for the first time with seven seats and could play a role in coalition negotiations after signalling its willingness to engage with either bloc. Labour leader Hipkins has yet to concede, while Luxon will remain caretaker PM until the official results are announced on November 27th. CHINESE INFLATION (MON): Chinese headline inflation eased in October, with the Y/Y rate falling to 0.7% (prev. 0.9%), below the market consensus of 0.8%, while core inflation dipped to 0.8%. Food prices remained the main drag, with deflation deepening to a 13-month low of -2.9% Y/Y. Meanwhile, non-food inflation held steady at 1.5% Y/Y, supported by transportation and communication fuels. PPI inflation continued to accelerate, rising to 5.7%, above expectations of 5.3% and the prior 5.0%. ING forecasts that, if elevated producer prices persist, higher costs should be passed on to consumers, keeping inflation positive heading into 2027, albeit at low levels. BOJ SUMMARY OF OPINIONS (TUE): The BoJ's Summary of Opinions from the October meeting highlighted growing support for further monetary tightening, with some members advocating a faster pace of rate hikes as underlying inflation approaches the 2% target. Several policymakers argued that rates should move towards neutral sooner, with one suggesting Japan's neutral rate is considerably above 1%, while another urged the Bank to avoid excessive caution when raising rates. However, others favoured a more gradual approach, citing weak consumption, uncertainty surrounding AI demand and the risk that further tightening could weigh on growth and inflation. Some also stressed the importance of assessing financial conditions over several months following each hike. Overall, the discussions reinforced the BoJ's tightening bias, although policymakers remained divided over the appropriate pace. A December hike remains firmly in focus, with money markets pricing around an 84% probability of an increase at next month's meeting. BOC MINUTES (TUE): The BoC minutes revealed that policymakers debated holding rates at 2.25% or hiking by 25bps to 2.50%. The argument for holding was that the recent rise in inflation had largely been concentrated in energy prices and energy-sensitive services, such as airfares. However, the case for hiking centred on the substantial increase in gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices since July, which were expected to remain elevated for longer. Looking ahead, Governing Council acknowledged considerable uncertainty surrounding external developments and their impact on Canada, although stressed that uncertainty did not necessarily warrant inaction. Members agreed that further rate hikes may be necessary but emphasised the need to proceed cautiously, assessing incoming information and making policy decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. CHINESE BALANCE OF TRADE (TUE): China's trade surplus narrowed to USD 105.28bln in October (exp. USD 125.8bln, prev. USD 133.53bln), marking a six-month low as stronger-than-expected import growth outpaced exports. Exports rose 35.2% Y/Y (exp. 33.5%, prev. 36.3%), supported by robust global demand for AI-related products, particularly semiconductors and data-processing equipment. Meanwhile, imports accelerated to 41.6% Y/Y (exp. 32.0%, prev. 31.0%), driven by technology-related purchases and higher crude oil import values. Despite the narrower monthly surplus, China's cumulative trade surplus reached USD 1.04tln in the first ten months of 2026, surpassing the USD 1tln threshold earlier than last year and remaining on course for a record annual surplus. Looking ahead, ING expects AI-related trade to remain resilient, although potential European trade restrictions and uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade truce pose risks to the outlook. NORWEGIAN CPI (TUE)): October’s series was cooler than expected for both the headline and ATE Y/Y prints. ATE came in at 2.7% Y/Y, vs the market’s view of 2.8% and the 3.0% prior. For comparison, the Norges Bank expected 2.7%, and the convergence to their forecast will be welcome, and means the policy path outlined in November remains intact. US CPI (TUE): US CPI was hotter than expected in October, with headline prices rising 0.4% M/M (0.350% to three decimal places), above the 0.3% forecast but cooling from the prior 0.649%. Shelter prices rose 0.3%, accounting for over 30% of the headline increase, while food prices increased 0.5% and energy prices rose 0.7%, slowing substantially from September's 5.2% increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast and in line with the prior 0.3%. Within the core components, increases were seen in recreation, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and education, while used cars and trucks and communication were among the few major categories to decline. The hotter core print followed hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller earlier in the session, where the Governor said further policy tightening will be needed and that a 50bps hike in December may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The combination of Waller's comments and the inflation data has reignited discussion around the possibility of a larger December hike. Money markets now fully price a 25bps increase, with around a 10% probability of a 50bps move. This is the final CPI report ahead of the December 9th FOMC meeting, with November CPI not due until December 10th. However, policymakers will still receive October PPI on Friday and PCE data on November 25th. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the October CPI report appears consistent with a 0.35-0.40% M/M increase in core PCE and an acceleration in the annual core PCE rate to 3.3% from 3.1% in September. UK GDP (THU): Q3 preliminary GDP printed as expected Q/Q at 0.7%. September’s series was stronger than forecast, however, the priors were subject to a downward revision. The series continued the narrative of services offsetting weak activity elsewhere, and it remains to be seen how this dynamic will fare into the winter, and through the global AI/tech woes of recent days/weeks. Overall, for the BoE the series keeps the tightening path in-play, and while it is unlikely to be a significant factor in the deliberations around the timing of the next move, it works marginally in favour of December over February. US PPI (FRI): The October PPI report leaned soft, with headline prices rising 0.3% M/M, cooling from September's 1.4% increase and below the 0.4% forecast. The Y/Y rate accelerated to 6.5% from 6.3%, although it remained below the 6.6% consensus. Core PPI was in line with expectations at 0.3% M/M, slowing from the prior 0.8%, while the Y/Y rate held steady at 5.0%. The softer-than-expected report offered some relief from inflation concerns following Tuesday's hot CPI print, which reignited debate around a potential 50bps Fed hike in December after Governor Waller suggested such a move may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, a threshold subsequently met. The softer PPI data could strengthen the case for a more measured 25bps hike rather than a 50bps move. Within the report, PCE-relevant components showed slower increases in air passenger transport and portfolio management prices, while healthcare prices were mixed. The data prompted a dovish reaction, with equities, Treasuries and gold rising, and the Dollar coming under pressure, before the moves pared somewhat.