Newsquawk 欧州デイリー・オープニング・ニュース - 2026年10月30日

US futures slumped after-hours on weak results from Amazon (-7.3%) and Intel (-23%), while APAC stocks were mixed and the KOSPI triggered a sidecar. BoJ kept rates unchanged, as expected, in an 8-1 vote with Takata dissenting in favour of a hike; the Bank said underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with its price target and accelerated the pace of its ETF sales. Reports continued to point to potential US strikes on Iran after the midterms, while the Houthis said they targeted Saudi oil facilities; crude futures gained. DXY was little changed after weakening on lower yields; EUR/USD held on to gains after the ECB's hawkish hold, with source reports indicating policymakers are prepared to raise rates in December. Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP (Q3), French Flash CPI (Oct), Spanish Flash CPI (Oct), German GDP (Q3), German State/National CPI (Oct), EZ GDP (Q3), Italian Flash CPI (Oct), Canadian GDP (Aug), CBRT Minutes (Oct), EU-Canada Summit (29-30 Oct). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Daly, Hammack & Cook. Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, BP, NatWest & Sanofi. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 -2.4% ASX 200 +0.2% Hang Seng +1.7% Shanghai Comp -0.4% Euro Stoxx 50 Dec'26 -0.5% DAX Dec'26 -0.2% ES Dec'26 -0.9% NQ Dec'26 -2.0% FX DXY U/C (101.83) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1183) USD/JPY U/C (157.64) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3386) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +15 ticks Bund Dec'26 +27 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.92% German 10yr Yield 3.33% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +1.5% Brent Jan'27 +1.5% Spot Gold -0.5% LME Copper U/C CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.8% Ethereum -0.5% As of 06:00GMT/02:00EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include French GDP (Q3), French Flash CPI (Oct), Spanish Flash CPI (Oct), German GDP (Q3), German State/National CPI (Oct), EZ GDP (Q3), Italian Flash CPI (Oct), Canadian GDP (Aug), CBRT Minutes (Oct), EU-Canada Summit (29-30 Oct). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Daly, Hammack & Cook, Supply from Australia, Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, BP, NatWest & Sanofi. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump reiterated that the Iran war would be over very soon. US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed US President Trump on Thursday regarding the state of war with Iran, with a focus on the ongoing naval blockade, according to two senior officials, while it was separately reported that a top US admiral briefed Trump about Iran attack options, according to WSJ. US official said the White House believes the chances of reaching a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, while the official noted that Istanbul and Doha are the most likely locations if a meeting takes place between US VP Vance and Iran's Rezaei, according to the Washington Post. US envoy Tom Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement aimed at reducing tensions with Iran, citing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, while he rejected the 'greater Israel' narrative and urged regional powers to take greater responsibility. Current and former officials said the administration plans to strike Iran after the US elections and that aircraft are moving into position and MOAB use is expected, according to journalist Carla Babb. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said blaming Iran for the consequences of US military aggression is mitigation and whitewashing of crimes. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Tehran's conditions had been repeatedly and clearly communicated to mediators, while he added that a carrot-and-stick approach would have no effect and that progress could only be achieved once Iran's seven conditions had been agreed upon. IRGC aerospace force tracked and drove off a hostile fighter jet over Qeshm, according to Tasnim. IRNA correspondent reported several explosions were heard coming from the direction of the sea and in the sky and waters around Iran's Qeshm Island, while reports also noted that four explosions were heard in Iran's Jask, although the cause was unknown. UKMTO says it received a report of an incident 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz, with a vessel, although the cause was unknown at the time of the report. Explosions and flashes reported near the Strait of Hormuz, while local sources were linking the sounds to vessel warning shots, according to Fars and Al Jazeera. A Panama-flagged tanker and a dhow were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Saudi-led coalition forces announced interception and destruction of a cruise missile launched by Houthis towards the kingdom's western region, while they also said they intercepted a Houthi drone over Mecca. Yemen military warned Houthis against using prohibited combat weapons, while its Defence Ministry was investigating Houthi use of toxic gas in Taiz. Houthi military said it carried out six operations against Saudi Arabia, including targeting the Ras Tanura refinery, Aramco’s Abqaiq facility and the Rabigh refinery with ballistic missiles. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks were mixed as tech underperformed after a disappointing Alphabet earnings report (GOOG -12.5%), which missed on profit and revenue and showed worsening free cash flow, reigniting concerns over AI profitability. The weakness reversed Microsoft’s initial pop on its earnings beat and better-than-expected guidance, while Microsoft’s lower-than-expected capex weighed on its infrastructure partners, with neoclouds seeing downside (NCLD -5.7%). Software and memory names were also hit, with ServiceNow (NOW -27.0%) and Fortinet (FTNT -20.1%) underwhelming. Elsewhere, other earnings were more constructive, with beats from Eli Lilly, Merck, KLA, T-Mobile, eBay and Mastercard, while Marvell (MRVL -13.2%) sank on reports that it is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum (LITE), although futures were pressured again after-hours on weak results from the likes of Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC). SPX -0.30% at 7,721, NDX -1.38% at 29,403, DJI -0.25% at 52,343, RUT +0.96% at 2,858. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump said Canada has been treating the US nicely lately. EU's Kallas said the EU's relations with Canada are entering a new era and they will deepen ties on security and defence, trade, critical raw materials and digital, as well as bring their people closer together. German Chancellor Merz said Germany is willing to act with like-minded partners in Europe and the world to defend and further develop the rules-based global economic order, while he also stated that they want to offer opportunities beyond bilateral agreements. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump posted that the US economy is booming at 3.4% growth, with consumer spending and business investment way up and equipment investment up 21%, while he added that core inflation remained low and separately commented that the Fed hates to cut interest rates. US President Trump cancelled weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas, opting instead to support Republican candidates with telerallies that his party said could reach more voters in nearly two dozen states in the final days before the midterm elections, according to CBS. Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.97), Sales 201.9bln (exp. 202.2bln), sees Q4 Oper. income 28.5bln-33.5bln (exp. 33.2bln), sales 240bln-247bln (exp. 244.2bln); shares fell 7% after-hours. Intel (INTC) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.41), Revenue 16.5bln (exp. 16.6bln), sees Q4 Adj. EPS 0.25 (exp. 0.44), Revenue 15bln-16bln (exp. 17.1bln); shares fell 22% after-hours. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks were mixed amid notable tech weakness, with the sector further pressured following disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel, while participants also digested a slew of data at month-end. ASX 200 traded higher as softer yields helped offset the losses in tech, consumer staples and mining. Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the tech woes, while participants also digested a slew of mixed data releases and the BoJ policy announcement, in which the central bank kept rates unchanged, declared reaching the price target and accelerated the pace of its ETF sales. KOSPI underperformed and triggered a sidecar after the recent weak big tech earnings stateside. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid a deluge of earnings and with Hong Kong outperforming as platform companies picked up the slack from chipmakers, while the mainland was subdued following a record number of purges at the Fifth Plenum. US equity futures retreated after-hours with Emini Nasdaq 100 leading the declines following weak earnings from Amazon and Intel, which saw their shares drop by more than 7% and 22%, respectively. European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Thursday. FX DXY was little changed after weakening yesterday alongside a lower-yield backdrop and in response to a PCE report that matched expectations on inflation, accompanied by shortfalls in personal income and spending growth vs forecasts, although the downside in the buck was contained as there was also better-than-expected advanced Q3 GDP data which showed economic growth of 3.4% on an annualised basis. EUR/USD remained afloat after ultimately gaining in the aftermath of the ECB meeting, where the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected, while President Lagarde said the early stages of the pricing chain point to upward pressures and that the situation could have warranted a hike, while she noted that the decision does not indicate the ECB will not hike at its next meeting, and ECB source reports later indicated that policymakers are prepared to raise rates in December. GBP/USD held on to its spoils and briefly reclaimed the 1.3400 handle after recent outperformance, despite the lack of pertinent catalysts for the UK since the budget announcement midweek. USD/JPY trickled lower amid the softer buck and with little reaction to the BoJ decision to stand pat, while there was also a slew of data from Japan, including mixed Tokyo CPI and lower unemployment. Antipodeans slightly rebounded overnight amid the softer buck and despite the mixed risk appetite. PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7138 vs exp. 6.6548 (prev. 6.7147) FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures extended gains amid AI-related jitters and disappointing big tech earnings. Bund futures were underpinned after shrugging off the choppy mood following the ECB meeting, while participants await the latest German CPI and GDP data. 10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in global peers, with participants digesting mixed data, while prices were unfazed by the BoJ rate decision, which kept rates unchanged as widely expected and stated that underlying inflation aligned with the 2% price target. COMMODITIES Crude futures gained, albeit with price action choppy after recent two-way trade, while upside was facilitated as geopolitical headlines continued to highlight the potential for a resumption of strikes against Iran after the midterm elections and with Houthis conducting several operations against Saudi oil facilities. US DoE said five companies, including Trafigura, Gunvor and Vitol, are taking SPR oil loans, with the companies to borrow 16.75mln barrels of crude from the SPR out of 17mln barrels offered. Spot gold declined and breached beneath the USD 4,000/oz level amid weakness in the metals complex, but with losses in the yellow metal stemmed amid a weaker buck and softer yields. Copper futures remained lacklustre amid the mixed risk sentiment across Asia-Pac. CRYPTO Bitcoin nursed some losses overnight after dipping late on Thursday after Binance announced a 'security issue', which turned out to be what was described as the largest cryptocurrency theft on record valued at approximately USD 6.36bln, although the Co. announced that it would cover all hacking losses. Binance said its teams were aware of a security issue and were investigating, while it announced that all deposits and withdrawals are temporarily suspended and that it will cover all hacking losses. North Korean hackers reportedly stole approximately USD 6.36bln from Binance in what blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs described as the largest cryptocurrency theft on record. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote with Takata the dissenter as he proposed raising the short-term interest rate target to 1.5%, but the proposal was rejected by the board, while it stated that underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and it will continue raising interest rates in response to economic and price developments, as well as financial conditions. BoJ said there is a risk that underlying inflation could overshoot the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside, while it decided to sell ETF holdings at a scale of about 0.1% of market trading value with the pace of ETF sales set at around JPY 860bln per year on a book value basis from January and noted that ETF holdings sales would take about 43 years to complete, compared with approximately 112 years previously. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, the median forecast for Core CPI was maintained at 2.5% for Fiscal 2026, raised to 2.6% from 2.4% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 2.0% for Fiscal 2028, while forecasts for Real GDP were raised to 0.7% from 0.6% for Fiscal 2026, lowered to 0.7% from 0.8% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 0.8% for Fiscal 2028. DATA RECAP Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.7%) Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Oct YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%) Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Oct YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%) Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Sep MM) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -2.4%) Japanese Retail Sales (Sep YY) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%) Japanese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%) Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Sep) 1.19 vs. Exp. 1.18 (Prev. 1.18) GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Pentagon officials told some NATO allies to control their rhetoric regarding the Russian threat, with officials in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia among those who received the message, according to sources. Russian President Putin said Russia supports any steps to restore relations with European countries during a call with the leaders of Norway and Finland, adding that Moscow did not want a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz crisis to occur in the Baltic Sea. Russia conducted strikes on military and energy facilities in Ukraine's Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while it struck port facilities in Odesa and cargo vessels, according to its Defence Ministry. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine had information on new planned Russian ballistic missile strikes and needs the means to counter them. Ukraine's military paused its strikes against Russian oil refineries after weeks of pressure from US President Trump shook Kyiv's confidence in US support, according to WSJ citing people with knowledge of the operations. Kyiv's mayor said the Ukrainian capital was under attack from Russian ballistic missiles, while witnesses reported explosions jolting Kyiv. IAEA said a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant employee was killed in a drone attack. OTHER South Korean National Security Advisor said South Korea is to firmly respond to North Korea's crossing of the military demarcation line, and stated that Seoul is continuing to provide support for Ukraine as part of the international community. North Korean leader Kim called for North Korea to seize absolute superiority in drone technology. Greece's PM called the Turkey-Libya maritime deal 'illegal, null and void', while he urged Libya to seriously engage in talks with Greece and reaffirmed support for economic sanctions on Russia. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Treasury confirmed Chancellor Healey's remarks were accurate and that the government would not reduce the welfare bill during the current Parliament, adding that the reduction would take place in 2030/31, during the next Parliament, according to Bloomberg's Alex Wickham. Councils in England are in open revolt against changes to strip elected councillors of planning powers and hand decisions to unelected officials, according to The Times. ECB President Lagarde is reportedly being considered as a potential next head of the World Economic Forum, although her attention appears to remain focused on France, according to Politico. DATA RECAP UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Oct) 47 (Prev. 41)