Newsquawk 欧州市場総括 - 2026年11月2日

Sentiment lifted after Iran's Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue. European bourses are mixed, while US equities opened firmer across the board. Crude slumps over 6% and Dutch TTF falls beneath EUR 100/MWh amid hopes for US-Iran diplomacy. EQUITIES European bourses (Stoxx 600 U/C) are set to end the European session mixed, with initial upside paring back slightly as the session progressed. The upbeat tone was helped by the c. 6.5% downside in the energy complex on hopes of diplomacy. The latest leg lower in crude benchmarks, which caused a brief boost in equities, came after Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue. Sectors held their broadly positive tone. Travel & Leisure topped the sector pile, followed by Real Estate and Construction. The sector laggard was Energy, with Telecoms and Health Care rounding out the underperformers. Key movers included: Alstom -26.9%, H1 sales missed estimates and cut its FY guidance; Ryanair +5.3%, Q2 sales and PAT broadly in line while announcing a review of Group-wide expenses; Fresenius +1.9%, entered an exclusive agreement with WuXi Biologics; Novartis -1.4%, downgraded to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank. US cash equities opened entirely in the green, with outperformance in the NDX. Anthropic reported its Q3 figures, ahead of its IPO w/c November 16. Its net loss rose on an annual basis while revenue rose over 12-fold to USD 16.96bln. Focus now turns to Apple earnings after-hours. FX Snapshot: G10s were initially broadly winning against the USD, but look to end the London session mixed. The CHF was the day’s outperformer, joined closely by the EUR. To the downside, AUD was the slight laggard. No specific catalyst for the pressure, but potentially on weakening Chinese PMI data and as weekly CFTC data highlighted that speculative positions were net-short, and nearing stretched positioning. DXY was on the back foot and traded within a 101.14 to 101.99 range. Pressure today was facilitated by lower energy prices (WTI -6%), amid hopes for diplomacy between the US and Iran (see commodities for details). Further adding to the downside are the increased odds of a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections; Kalshi currently assigns odds of a Dem Senate at 74%, and 94% chance of a Dem House. CHF appeared to have benefited from the lower yield environment. Heading into the midterms, Morgan Stanley said in a recent note that it favours long-CHF and long-JPY in a fragile Democratic majority. The JPY was a touch lower throughout the session, unable to benefit from the lower yields / cooling energy prices. The EUR held towards the top of the G10 pile throughout the session, with an unscheduled Fitch France outlook downgrade and nationwide riots in Germany seemingly shrugged off by cooling Dutch TTF prices. FIXED INCOME Global fixed benchmarks were bid throughout the London session, largely due to cooling energy prices, as the complex reacted to constructive geopolitical newsflow. In brief, Iran said that contacts over ending the war were ongoing, with some reports suggesting that Tehran could show flexibility on the nuclear issue. In the afternoon, another bout of pressure in global yields was seen after reports suggested that the Iranian Supreme Leader granted the government some authority on dialogue. USTs were firmer by a handful of ticks and traded towards the upper end of a 106-15+ to 106-27 range. As above, US paper benefited from cooling energy prices, with underperformance seen towards the long-end of the curve. Of course, focus for the complex also remains on the US midterms, where a Democratic Sweep is increasingly being priced in by popular prediction markets. Over in Europe, Bunds traded with gains of c. 10 ticks and held within a 122.22 to 122.69 range. The complex follows peers, but also benefits from the pressure in Dutch TTF prices. Across the border, French OATs gained by c. 50 ticks, and shrugged off the negative implications of an unscheduled announcement by Fitch, which saw the firm put France on negative outlook reflecting concerns over the deteriorating state of the country's public finances. Across the channel, Gilts outperformed vs peers, and are set to end the session stronger by c. 85 ticks. Strength which is somewhat unsurprising given the region’s high sensitivity to energy prices. ING (INGA NA) files to sell EUR-denominated 2-, 3- and 6-year notes. COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks were lower throughout the session amid hopes for diplomacy, after Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, while Axios reported US President Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed strikes. Losses accelerated in the afternoon after Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue; once the headline got wider airing, Brent Jan'27 fell. Earlier, benchmarks saw brief pressure after a senior Iranian official told Kyodo that Iran would adopt a "flexible stance" on the nuclear issue if an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is reached. WTI Dec'26 traded within a USD 97.12-102.75/bbl range (vs Friday's USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range), while Brent Jan'27 moved within USD 105.86-112.41/bbl (vs Friday's USD 111.03-114.29/bbl range). Dutch TTF was lower within a EUR 94.49-104.10/MWh range, slipping beneath the EUR 100/MWh mark. Spot gold was higher within a USD 3,874-3,961/oz range, extending gains after the Pezeshkian headline alongside a softer USD. Spot silver rose over 3% within a USD 49.11-51.27/oz range. 3M LME copper was higher within a USD 14,190.30-14,331.55/t range as sentiment was lifted. Vitol CEO said demand will have shrunk by about 3mln BPD by end-2026 and the world cannot cope with a larger disruption than today's; oil demand will take a year to recover to 2025 levels, and the market could face a pretty tough spring. ADNOC's CEO said nearly 1bln bbls have been drained from global inventories since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, with diesel stocks in some markets at 35yr lows for the time of year; logistics and shipping now account for 30% of the cost of a barrel (prev. 5% before the Iran war). ADNOC reaches FID on the Ruwais Diyab unconventional gas project, which will produce 345mln standard cubic feet of raw gas per day from 2029, with the potential to hit 1bln per day. Kazakhstan October oil and gas condensate production reportedly rose 8% M/M to 2.08mln BPD, according to sources. TotalEnergies (TTE FP) CEO does not expect Europe to face gas shortages this winter. Russia's Kremlin said realities on the ground currently rule out plans to resume Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine, in response to a WSJ report. UAE Energy and Infrastructure Minister said UAE exports have at times exceeded pre-war levels. Maersk (MAERSKB DC) said it will reroute vessels with Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) via the Suez Canal instead of the Cape of Good Hope, effective November 4th and 13th. China and Oman reportedly agree to deepen oil and gas cooperation, Xinhua reported. USDA: Private exporters reported the sale of 136k MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 1.73mln MT of corn for delivery to Mexico. EUROPEAN DATA European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.9). German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 54.2 vs. Exp. 54.2 (Prev. 53.9). French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 50.6). Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.4 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.4). Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.2 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 51.0). UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 51.9). German Retail Sales (Sep MM) -2.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.3%). German Retail Sales (Sep YY) -2.3% (Prev. -0.4%). Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 56.7 vs. Exp. 55.3 (Prev. 55.3). Swiss Retail Sales (Sep YY) 1.6% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 3.2%). Swiss Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.7% (Prev. 0.6%). Swedish Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 60.5 (Prev. 58.5). Spanish New Car Sales (Oct YY) 1.8% (Prev. 10.2%). NOTABLE HEADLINES Belgian PM De Wever is said to offer his resignation to the king, according to local press. TRADE/TARIFFS India assures liquor companies it will honour the India-UK trade pact and settle the Scotch whisky tariff dispute, sources said. CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Kazimir said markets may still be underestimating the monetary policy path required. The question is increasingly not whether further ECB action is needed, but by how much; policymakers should act before elevated inflation becomes normalised. PBoC lowers the re-lending rate for stock buyback and shareholding loans to 1% (prev. 1.25%). PBoC to launch a one-year, extendable swap facility for securities, fund and insurance companies on November 3rd to support capital market stability, with 31 firms applying for over CNY 100bln in funding. It also pledged to expand participation in the facility and moderately lower swap fees. SNB Weekly Sight Deposits (w/e Oct 30th): Total 460.165bln (prev. 434.743bln); Domestic 436.893bln (prev. 434.743bln). GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST Iran FM Araghchi said "We are more prepared than ever for a military response and the path of diplomacy", IRNA reported. Consultations through the mediators (Qatar and Pakistan) are very intensive; everything depends on Washington's political rationality. If Washington accepts Tehran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and negotiations will resume; otherwise, the current situation will continue. Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reported. War will not be in anyone's interest. Senior Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless Tehran's demands are met and that Iran is open to diplomacy "but on our terms", N12 reported. A senior Iranian official said the reopening of the Strait requires the US to accept the seven conditions, and Iran would adopt a "flexible stance" on the nuclear issue if an agreement on reopening is reached, Kyodo reported. Iran is believed to be considering measures such as reducing uranium enrichment levels and transporting highly enriched uranium abroad. Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday, but their departure was not due to difficulties in negotiations, sources said; a draft proposal has been circulated for feedback, with a follow-up meeting possible. Iranian spokesperson Baghaei said "the compression of Tehran's seven-day proposal and the possibility of implementing it in two days is a sign of the Islamic Republic's goodwill"; "America must make a decision". He separately said Tehran does not expect a change in US policy following the midterm elections. Baghaei said withdrawal from the NPT remains under discussion, but Iran remains committed to the treaty, and denied that exporting 60%-enriched uranium to a third country was discussed in Doha, Naya reported. Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly pressed US President Trump to swiftly resume military operations against Iran following this week's US elections, according to the FT citing sources; the source added both the US and Iran want a deal and are showing signs of more flexibility. Iranian Navy said a tanker caught fire after striking a naval mine in a restricted area east of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the vessel had switched off its navigation and identification systems, IRIB News reported. Iran's PGSA blacklists a further batch of vessels for breaching its Strait of Hormuz protocols, taking its non-compliant list to 240 ships. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said any aggression against Iran will be met with a strong, immediate and comprehensive response, Sabereen reported. Iran's National Security Committee spokesperson Qashqavi said enemy nuclear threats reinforce the case for changing Iran's nuclear doctrine, Sabereen reported. Iranian security chief Rezaei and Russian President Putin held a phone call to discuss regional and global issues, SNN reported. Russian Foreign Ministry said signals of planned new military actions against Iran are of extreme concern, Tass reported. China's Foreign Minister met Iran's Bagheri Kani, with China considering negotiation the only solution to the Middle East situation, SNN reported; China's special envoy is expected to visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia within the next two weeks. Kann reported a source in the Emirates said "it seems the confrontation is on its way. There is no trust in Iran." Explosions were reported in Khamis Mushait and Abha in southern Saudi Arabia, alongside a missile attack on Najran, Nournews reported; explosions were later reported in Jazan and Najran, with Saudi Civil Defence subsequently saying the danger had passed. Yemeni forces reportedly launched an attack targeting Jazan in Saudi Arabia, Sabereen reported, while a Yemeni military source claimed numerous casualties, including Saudi personnel, following fighting among Saudi-backed forces during a failed advance towards Bab al-Mandab, Naya reported. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS US President Trump said he does not think the elections will be secure; on Iran, he said "we will see about a deal", and that Iran wants to come to one. He reiterated that Iran is not allowed a nuclear weapon, and said he will veto everything if the Democrats win the midterms. US NEC Director Hassett said the AI ecosystem is well-financed and flush with cash, and does not see a risk of a broad AI-related sell-off, CNBC reported. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 54.9 vs. Exp. 56 (Prev. 56.0). NOTABLE ASIA-PAC NEWS China proposes easing FX rules for current account transactions. CRYPTO Strategy (MSTR) bought 811 bitcoin between October 26th and November 1st for USD 65.5mln, and offers up to USD 4.13bln of 10% Series A perpetual stride preferred stock. Binance users withdrew USD 5bln as the crypto exchange resumes services following a heist, according to reports citing DeFiLlama data. OTHER DATA Russian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.9 (Prev. 49.8). Turkish Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 47.3 (Prev. 47.9). South African ABSA Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.6 (Prev. 48.7).