Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋市場オープニングニュース－2026年11月6日

US stocks slumped driven by weakness in semiconductors (SOXX -12.1%), as the Democratic midterm win continued to put uncertainty in the AI trade. Fixed income benchmarks benefited from the flight to safety. DXY closed essentially flat; Havens led while the GBP was supported following a surprise hawkish 8-1 vote. Crude complex rebounded slightly from recent losses (Brent +3.3%). Looking ahead, highlights include French Trade Balance (Sep), EU Retail Sales (Sep), US Jobs Report (Oct), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Nov), Canadian Jobs Report (Oct), Ivey PMI (Oct). Speakers include Fed's Logan, Williams, Musalem, Bowman, ECB's Lane, BoE's Pill and BoJ's Ueda. Supply from Australia. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -4.32% Nasdaq Comp. -6.36% DJIA -3.44% Russell 2000 -4.48% ES Dec'26 -4.8% RTY Dec'26 -5.0% NQ Dec'26 -6.8% YM Dec'26 -4.0% FX DXY +0.1% (101.60) EUR/USD -0.1% (1.1217) USD/JPY -0.5% (157.66) GBP/USD -0.2% (1.3448) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +13 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 +49 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.839% German 10yr Yield 3.239% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +3.2% Brent Jan'27 +3.3% Spot Gold +0.7% LME Copper -1.7% CRYPTO Bitcoin -5.8% Ethereum -7.9% As of 22:02GMT/17:02EST IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump says Iran is not doing anything without US approval. Need to decide whether to go further or "certify it" and would rather not destroy the rest of Iran if possible, but maybe will have to. Iran is reportedly reviewing concrete proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear programme, potentially paving the way for renewed negotiations to end the war with the US, according to the NYT citing officials. US VP Vance has emerged as a key supporter of Qatari-led mediation efforts, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council head Rezaei has reportedly shown greater openness to nuclear discussions alongside Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. Iran has passed a nuclear proposal to the US through Qatar, which will only be discussed once Washington meets its seven demands, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. Iran does not envisage any further steps to advance diplomacy until all seven conditions are met, according to Fars citing a senior security source. Risk of renewed war with Iran has eased after the Republicans’ midterm defeat, but escalation is still probable, according to a regional source cited by CNN. US officials say military strikes against Iran remain an option, with Trump potentially considering a limited attack targeting nuclear facilities rather than broader strikes on energy infrastructure, according to i24NEWS. Regional diplomats say Qatar has renewed mediation efforts, urging Iran to offer concessions on its nuclear programme to secure an agreement. Senior US officials see a high probability of war with Iran, N12 TV reported. US White House is reportedly seriously considering launching further military strikes against Iran, according to Sabereen News citing US media. US President Trump’s administration held secret talks with Iran on deporting Iranians even as the war dragged on, according to the AP citing court documents. Pakistani Deputy PM and Foreign Minister reportedly met Iran's ambassador and held separate calls with Saudi and Omani counterparts over the past 24 hours to discuss regional de-escalation, according to journalist Mallick. Iranian Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Araghchi held telephone conversations with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts and discussed efforts to establish stability in the region. Iran's IRGC Ground Forces Commander declared full readiness to respond decisively to any hostile action, Sepah News reported. Iran and Oman discussed efforts to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO reported that a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on November 4. Saudi Arabia issued emergency alerts warning of potential danger in Yanbu and the southeastern border region of Sharurah amid continued Houthi attacks. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a Houthi missile targeting Medina. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russian President Putin met with Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei at the Kremlin, RIA reported. Al-Mayadeen reported that the main topic of discussion was ending the war. Western media outlets are spreading false news about the details of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council head Rezaei’s meeting with Russian President Putin, Al-Mayadeen reported citing a high-ranking Iranian security and political source. US TRADE US stocks slumped on Thursday amid a broad risk-off environment, with the Nasdaq falling over 6% as AI-related chip, memory and neocloud names tumbled to multi-month lows. The sell-off appeared to reflect fears of an AI slowdown following the Democratic sweep in the midterms, adding to existing concerns surrounding AI spending and funding. Meanwhile, Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings disappointed following weak smartphone chip sales. There was also considerable chatter regarding potential hedge fund liquidations, with unverified social media reports suggesting significant losses across several hedge fund trading pods. SPX -4.32% at 7,356, NDX -6.36% at 26,630, DJI -3.44% at 51,521, RUT -4.48% at 2,729 Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE China's MOFCOM is to maintain anti-dumping duties on US-origin n-propanol imports for five years from November 6. BoC Governor Macklem said he is optimistic about lower US tariffs but can't rule out escalation before US trade gets better. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Hammack (hawkish dissenter) said monetary policy needs to move to a restrictive stance, with gradual rate hikes being the best way to return inflation to 2% while minimising economic and financial disruption. She warned that inflation remains too high and is moving in the wrong direction. Stressed Fed independence is critical and sees little risk of the dollar losing its status as the world's dominant reserve currency. Furthermore, Hammack said that reducing meetings to six a year would be a modest shift. Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) said US economic demand remains solid, although strength is uneven across sectors. He warned businesses face broad-based cost pressures, including tariffs, which they feel compelled to pass on to consumers. Noted firms remain cautious about hiring but are not yet cutting staff, while strong earnings support investment and employee retention. Around 600k Nvidia (NVDA) H200 AI chips are reportedly stockpiled in Hong Kong awaiting shipment to mainland China, as Beijing withholds approval for large-scale imports despite strong demand from Chinese technology firms, according to Reuters citing sources. Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly tightening oversight of data centre projects involving Nebius (NBIS), IREN (IREN) and Nscale amid delays, regulatory hurdles and rising costs, according to Bloomberg citing sources. The Co. is withdrawing from projects deemed too risky and internally debating whether to enter new neocloud agreements. Micron Technology (MU) reportedly suspended plans for a memory chip plant in Taoyuan, Taiwan, amid a prolonged labour dispute and concerns over mounting uncertainties, including the risk of a local union agreement being overturned, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Construction has largely halted, with Taiwanese officials and a supplier reportedly informed. A portfolio of c. USD 500mln in data centre loans is reportedly up for sale through a competitive auction following the Democratic sweep of the US midterms, according to Bloomberg citing sources. US President Trump said he intends to keep Secretary of War Hegseth, according to ABC's Karl. Amid this, Fox reported that US War Secretary Hegseth could face an impeachment vote as soon as next week. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on resignation watch from both sides of the Atlantic in the expectation he will quit to launch a bid to be the next US president, according to The Independent. To add, Bloomberg reported that Rubio is considering whether to leave the administration, according to sources. However, Newsnation reported that this is not true. US VP Vance reportedly made his comments on the Iran war without President Trump's approval, with allies viewing the intervention as a signal of his ambitions to lead the American Right, The Telegraph reports citing sources. The US White House is reviewing the SEC’s proposed crypto broker rule changes, according to Bloomberg. Apple (AAPL) kicked off a seven-part USD high-grade bond offering, seeking around USD 7bln. BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 31st Oct) +6.2% Y/Y (prev. +6%); spending on holiday items is off to a strong start. Banxico lowered its overnight rate to 6.25% (exp. 6.50%, prev. 6.50%). The board was split on the decision, with Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath voting in favour of a hold. Canada proposes total borrowing of CAD 611bln in 2027/28 (prev. 587bln in 2026/27). Revises deficit forecasts lower to CAD 62.3bln in 2026/27 (prev. 65.3bln), 62.5bln in 2027/28 (prev. 63.1bln), 57.6bln in 2028/29 (prev. 57.7bln), 53.4bln in 2029/30 (prev. 56.2bln) and 52.9bln in 2030/31 (prev. 53.2bln). Lowers GDP growth forecasts for 2026 to 1.0% (prev. 1.1%) and 2027 to 1.7% (prev. 1.9%), while raising 2028/29 to 2.0% (prev. 1.9%). DATA RECAP US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/31) 189K vs. Exp. 196K (Prev. 195K). US Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/24) 1718K vs. Exp. 1710K (Prev. 1695K). US Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Oct/31) 194.75K (Prev. 197.00K). US Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators Final (Oct) 4.14% (Prev. 4.18%). Revelio Labs Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) +26k (Prev. +56.9k, Rev. to +67.6k). US Nonfarm Productivity Prel (Q3 QQ) 3.6% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.1%). US Unit Labor Costs Prel (Q3 QQ) -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.9%). US Challenger Job Cuts (Oct) 43.994K (Prev. 43.281K). US 15-Year Mortgage Rate (Nov/05) 6.57% (Prev. 6.60%). US 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Nov/05) 7.18% (Prev. 7.24%). FX DXY was relatively contained within a 101.20-101.71 range. After peaking at 101.71, weakness was seen in the greenback amid the fall in Treasury yields, as participants sought safety in havens amid the selloff in semiconductors. EUR ended slightly lower, but held firmly above the 1.1200 handle. Price action was choppy for the EUR, after peaking early in the European session at 1.1268 before selling off in the European morning to find a trough at 1.1203. The selloff came as energy prices began to rebound from the recent selloff, which saw Brent fall back below USD 100/bbl. GBP was contained in a 1.3448-1.3501 range, with modest strength seen following the BoE policy announcement. In brief, the BoE hiked rates by 25bps to 4.00%, as expected, with an 8-1 vote split. This came as a hawkish surprise, with all members of the MPC voting to hike rates, but Mann dissenting by voting for a 50bps hike. Governor Bailey said the hike should not be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of increases, but added that it does not seem likely to be the last increase unless the Middle East conflict is resolved. In terms of forecasts, the base case sees inflation peaking at 4.9% in Q4'27 (prev. forecast 4.2%). JPY acted as a haven throughout Thursday's trade, especially as the US equity cash trade got underway. USD/JPY fell below the 158.00 handle and found a low at 157.54. FIXED INCOME T-notes were bid throughout the US session, supported by a flight to safety as semiconductors sold off. Declines in yields were most prevalent at the front end, leading to bull steepening. COMMODITIES Oil prices settled firmer on Thursday, paring some of Wednesday's sharp losses, but remained notably lower on the week amid a reduced likelihood of a prolonged US-Iran war following the Democratic sweep in the midterms. However, some reports suggest further military action from US President Trump cannot be ruled out. The crude complex saw gains in the early part of the US session as N12 reported that senior US officials see a high probability of war with Iran. Meanwhile, the NYT reported that Iran is reviewing concrete proposals regarding its nuclear programme. US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Oct/30) 77Bcf vs. Exp. 81Bcf (Prev. 80Bcf). Aramco lowered its December Arab Light OSP to Asia to USD -7/bbl. UK cabinet ministers are reportedly lobbying PM Burnham and Energy Secretary Fahnbulleh to approve drilling at the Rosebank oil and gas field in the North Sea, with a majority of the cabinet and some senior advisers backing the project, according to Bloomberg citing officials. QatarEnergy is in talks for more long-term deals to buy LNG from US firms, planning to purchase 3-6mln tonnes of LNG annually, according to Bloomberg. Italy is reportedly set to approve changes to its energy-bill decree to reimburse gas-fired power plants for part of their fuel costs in a bid to curb electricity prices, according to Bloomberg citing a draft. Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,150/oz and end-2027 forecast to USD 4,800/oz. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said he met with Russian Envoy Dmitriev and that they are close to settling the Russia-Ukraine war. It is going to be a big agreement and will involve more than Ukraine and all of Europe. He added that he did not meet with the Ukrainian delegation. US Envoy Kushner said the US held productive and substantive discussions with Ukraine, NATO and European partners, covering security guarantees for Ukraine and a broader European security architecture. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Kyiv aims to close all EU accession negotiating clusters this year, following talks with European Council President Costa on EU integration and preparations for the Abu Dhabi trilateral meeting. Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russian President Putin may hold international talks, adding that diesel shipped under a deal with the US will find buyers, TASS reported. Italy is reportedly finalising its 13th military aid package for Ukraine, with Defence Minister Crosetto set to brief lawmakers on November 10 ahead of expected approval, according to Reuters citing sources. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES China's MOF said they plan to issue up to CNY 4bln in green sovereign bonds in Canada during the week of November 9, marking its first yuan-denominated sovereign bond issuance in the country. The BoK is reportedly preparing a large-scale purchase of US Treasuries to bolster FX reserves and strengthen Seoul's geopolitical and trade leverage in future negotiations with Washington, potentially using its US debt holdings as bargaining power, according to Korea Economic Daily. South Korea plans to delay the introduction of digital asset taxes by two years to 2029, according to the Finance Ministry. RBA's Hauser said some people's confidence in policy delivery, particularly on inflation, has fallen, adding that monetary policy works with lag, pain often precedes gain. Added that the last meeting had a lively discussion. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES The BoE raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.00%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote split (exp. 7 were expected to vote for a hike, 2 were expected to vote for a hold). Mann dissented, voting for a 50bps hike. Governor Bailey said that there is enough inflationary pressure now in pipeline from energy prices to raise rates, but that the hike should not be seen as first in inevitable long sequence of increases. On the other hand, Bailey added that it does not seem likely to be last increase unless Middle East conflict resolved. Forecasts: Q4 2026: 3.9% (prev. 3.9%), Q4 2027: 4.9% (prev. 4.2%), Q4 2028: 4.9% (prev. 4.1%), Q4 2029: 4.7% (prev. 4.2%). In the adverse scenario, the MPC expects CPI to peak at 6.2% in Q3'27. In the post-policy press conference, BoE Governor Bailey said today's rate hike does not necessarily signal the start of a tightening cycle and the BoE will adjust rates as needed to return inflation to target. He warned that a prolonged conflict could require higher rates, although this is a risk rather than a commitment. Said easing geopolitical tensions would reduce the risk of further hikes and could see inflation peak somewhat below 5%. Economic activity has been resilient, with AI investment accounting for a fifth of GDP growth, although strength is not broad-based. Expects food and core goods inflation to rise, while private sector wage growth is seen little changed. Within the Q&A, Governor Bailey said that he's not suggesting that if the current energy prices were in the forecast that they wouldn't have tightened today but made the point that the inflationary pressures in the pipeline do justify a hike. He added that he does not think the MPC moved rates too late and does not sign-up to the scenario of "two and done". Bailey reiterated a meeting-by-meeting basis. Norges Bank maintained its Key Policy Rate at 4.50%, as expected. "It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed". Governor Bache said inflation is too high while the statement stated that the Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate if warranted by the inflation outlook. CNB hiked rates by 25bps to 4.00%, as expected. ECB's Lagarde said the energy shock and AI developments complicate the economic outlook, with elevated energy costs the primary driver of excessive inflation. Stressed the need to use policy tools to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched and does not expect US tariffs to be revisited immediately. Additionally, she said that they must pay attention to secondary effects of the energy price shock and that there are also demand shocks happening at the same time. ECB's Zigman said there is a strong likelihood of a rate hike in December. SNB Chairman Schlegel said the central bank would intervene if price stability were at risk and that there have not yet been any significant second-round effects. German Chamber of Commerce forecasted German GDP growth of 1% in 2026 (prev. saw 0.3%), and expects 1% growth in 2027. UK PM Burnham said publication of his 10-year plan for Britain could be delayed until January (prev. expected in December), according to an interview with The Economist. UK Ministers reportedly plan to ease net zero aviation fuel quotas, retreating from green targets that could add GBP 25 to the cost of a short-haul flight, according to The Telegraph citing sources. DATA RECAP European PPI (Sep MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.0%). European PPI (Sep YY) 11.1% vs. Exp. 10.9% (Prev. 8.3%). German Factory Orders (Sep MM) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. -10.6%). Swedish CPIF Prel (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%). Swedish CPIF Prel (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).