Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋オープニングニュース - 2026年11月11日

US stocks were lower, but closed off worst levels, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 underperforming amid the hawkish Fed repricing, while Nvidia (NVDA) extended its recent losses amid reports surrounding CEO Jensen Huang's affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Sectors were mixed, with Technology the laggard, while Financials and Consumer Discretionary outperformed. Nonetheless, the main focus was the sharp hawkish repricing following Fed Governor Waller's comments and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report, reigniting the debate around a potential 50bps Fed hike in December. Waller said further tightening is needed sooner rather than later and suggested a half-point hike may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The subsequent report showed core CPI rising 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, also above expectations. As such, money markets were pricing around 27.5bps of tightening in December, implying a fully priced 25bps hike and a 10% probability of a 50bps move. Fed's Logan added to the hawkish rhetoric, calling for at least two further 25bps hikes, while Schmid described current policy as fairly accommodative. However, Bowman was more dovish than peers and stated there is still more work to do, but financial conditions have tightened, and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. USD saw notable gains, to the detriment of all G10 peers, as hawkish remarks from Fed's Waller, followed by a hot inflation report, gave the greenback all the impetus it needed. Money markets now assign a 10% probability of a 50bps Fed hike in December, with a 25bps increase fully priced. Elsewhere, Logan (2026 voter) said it is clear the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, and that it may be possible to raise rates more rapidly this winter than the Fed has done so far. As such, participants will look to see whether the camp for a larger December hike grows, or whether Waller remains an outlier. Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Unemployment, Japanese Money Supply & Machine Tool Orders, Australian Home Loans, Supply from Australia. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.4% Nasdaq Comp. -0.7% DJIA -0.3% Russell 2000 -0.7% ES Dec'26 -0.2% RTY Dec'26 -0.6% NQ Dec'26 -0.4% YM Dec'26 -0.2% FX DXY +0.6% (102.26) EUR/USD -0.5% USD/JPY +0.6% GBP/USD -0.7% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -30 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -29 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.00% German 10yr Yield 3.31% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 -0.4% Brent Jan'27 -0.6% Spot Gold -2.6% LME Copper -1.3% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.8% Ethereum -3.4% As of 21:35GMT/16:35EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include South Korean Unemployment, Japanese Money Supply & Machine Tool Orders, Australian Home Loans, Supply from Australia. US Cash Treasury markets will be closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US Secretary of State Rubio said the economic campaign against Iran was working so effectively that major combat operations were not necessary, while he added that economic pressure would intensify further. Furthermore, he said Iran wanted an agreement but was not ready for one, and that Tehran's demand for compensation would not be met. Israeli PM Netanyahu said Iran was working to renew its nuclear threat. Qatari PM Al Thani told G7 Foreign Ministers in Paris that Doha had secured 'at least two weeks' to pursue diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching an understanding between Washington and Tehran, although he also stated that significant differences remained between Washington and Tehran, with several key issues still unresolved, according to Jerusalem Post citing diplomatic sources. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts were ongoing and had gained significant momentum in recent days, adding that both sides had responded positively. Iran agreed to US demands to reduce its highly enriched uranium levels, according to Al Hadath citing sources. Iranian diplomatic source denied reports of an agreement with the US on uranium enrichment at 3.67% or other nuclear issues, insisting that Tehran's two-day proposal remained unchanged and that no detailed nuclear discussions had taken place, according to Avash. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said there were no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Rezaei and US VP Vance, according to Al Mayadeen. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi dismissed reports of a planned meeting between US VP Vance and Iran's Security Chief Rezaei as baseless media speculation, stating that no such meeting was planned, according to IRIB. He also stated that Iran had presented seven conditions and was awaiting a US response, but the initial response had not been sufficient for Tehran. Iran's Security Chief Rezaei said Tehran had asked the US to provide a clear and explicit response to its conditions, but Washington had not done so to date, although it could respond in the future, according to Al Mayadeen. He also commented that US claims that negotiations with Iran were continuing were aimed at easing economic pressure and lowering oil prices. Furthermore, he said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Iran's conditions were met, as well as dismissed claims of ongoing negotiations and a meeting in Qatar as false. Iran Deputy Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission told Mehr News that making concessions to the US would be a miscalculation, adding that Iran should not play on its adversary's turf. Iran's Major General Abdullahi said surprises would unfold one after another in the coming war and that Iran would definitely destroy Israel, according to Tasnim. IRGC said the third oil tanker using an unauthorised route through the Strait of Hormuz exploded this afternoon after hitting a naval mine, according to Tasnim. It also stated that following the destruction of US military radar and coastal navigation aid systems in the southern Strait of Hormuz, tankers were taking multiple risks by attempting to use the unauthorised route, which had been hit by naval mines. IRIB reported an explosion involving two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, saying one vessel, a supertanker, had hit a naval mine and exploded, while the second tanker, which was under the protection of US fighter jets and attempting to pass secretly through the unauthorised route, had suffered an incident and was stopped in place amid a major fire. UKMTO received a report of an incident near Oman's Lima on November 10th, in which a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile. Abu Dhabi's ADNOC said its vessel was attacked off the west coast of the UAE today, Argus reported. Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces had carried out four qualitative military operations using ballistic missiles and drones, including an attack on the East-West pipeline, adding that operations deep inside Saudi territory would continue. Syria is reportedly weighing sending troops to support Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis, according to the New York Times. US TRADE US stocks were lower, but closed off worst levels, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 underperforming amid the hawkish Fed repricing, while Nvidia (NVDA) extended its recent losses amid reports surrounding CEO Jensen Huang's affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Sectors were mixed, with Technology the laggard, while Financials and Consumer Discretionary outperformed. Nonetheless, the main focus was the sharp hawkish repricing following Fed Governor Waller's comments and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report, reigniting the debate around a potential 50bps Fed hike in December. Waller said further tightening is needed sooner rather than later and suggested a half-point hike may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The subsequent report showed core CPI rising 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, also above expectations. As such, money markets were pricing around 27.5bps of tightening in December, implying a fully priced 25bps hike and a 10% probability of a 50bps move. Fed's Logan added to the hawkish rhetoric, calling for at least two further 25bps hikes, while Schmid described current policy as fairly accommodative. However, Bowman was more dovish than peers and stated there is still more work to do, but financial conditions have tightened, and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. SPX -0.36% at 7,523, NDX -0.60% at 27,750, DJI -0.29% at 52,237, RUT -0.65% at 2,822. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US Senate Democratic Leader Schumer called for the passage of a bill on AI chip exports. Canadian PM Carney said he had spoken briefly with US President Trump over the weekend and could meet him later this month at the Asian summits. China's Foreign Minister said he hoped the EU would work with China to build balanced and stable relations between the countries, according to Xinhua. NOTABLE HEADLINES Fed's Waller (voter) said further policy tightening will be needed and that a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller also commented that he expected further tightening sooner rather than later to bring inflation back towards 2% over the medium term, while he added that a 0.3% MM rise in US October CPI would indicate inflation was moving away from target and would require more aggressive policy action. Furthermore, he did not expect broad-based productivity gains from AI for some time. Fed's Waller (voter) said the Fed needed, at a minimum, to reverse the three insurance cuts, but stressed that he was not "super hawkish" and did not want to "slam" the US economy. Waller stated that he was not looking to tighten by 150bps or 200bps and that the balance sheet would not be used as a tightening tool. Furthermore, he did not think his colleagues believed rates were at the correct level and said the recent pullback in market pricing for the Fed had brought expectations more in line with the central bank's view. Fed's Bowman (voter) said persistent inflation and firming labour conditions suggest 'still work to do', while she added that financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. Furthermore, she stated that bringing inflation down remains a priority and that core PCE likely rose 3.3% in October on energy prices and AI-related demand. Fed's Logan (2026 voter) said the Fed clearly needed at least two more 25bps rate hikes, adding that it might be possible to raise interest rates more rapidly this winter than the US central bank had done so far. She said it would make sense to pause after two further increases and assess whether additional action was appropriate. Fed's Schmid (2028 voter) said there are some concerning trends in prices underneath the whole energy story, while he didn't think the rate was restrictive last year and believes it is fairly accommodative today. US NEC Director Hassett said the US October CPI report was disappointing, adding that the effects of higher energy prices were beginning to filter through into the data. WSJ's Timiraos wrote that October's firm inflation reading raised the question of whether Federal Reserve officials would accelerate rate increases at their December meeting or beyond. Timiraos separately commented that on the same day that Fed's Waller and Logan opened the door to faster hikes, Bowman struck a cautious note: the benefit of more tightening “has to be carefully weighed against its costs” given recent market developments. DATA RECAP US CPI (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.6%); 3dp 0.350% (prev. 0.649%) US Core CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%); 3dp 0.296% (prev. 0.335%) US ADP Employment Change Weekly 19.75K (Prev. 16.75K) FX USD saw notable gains, to the detriment of all G10 peers, as hawkish remarks from Fed's Waller, followed by a hot inflation report, gave the greenback all the impetus it needed. Earlier in the session, the Buck strengthened after Waller’s surprisingly hawkish remarks, in which he said further policy tightening will be needed and that a half-point hike may be warranted in December if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The CPI report then showed core M/M at 0.3%, above expectations, with headline M/M also topping forecasts, prompting a broad-based hawkish reaction across markets. Money markets now assign a 10% probability of a 50bps Fed hike in December, with a 25bps increase fully priced. Elsewhere, Logan (2026 voter) said it is clear the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, and that it may be possible to raise rates more rapidly this winter than the Fed has done so far. As such, participants will look to see whether the camp for a larger December hike grows, or whether Waller remains an outlier. EUR weakened amid the firmer dollar, with the single currency retreating beneath the 1.1200 handle, while comments from ECB officials did little to stem the losses, despite Lane stating that it would be prudent to hike in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook and with both Kazaks and Nagel suggesting the likelihood of a December rate hike. GBP retreated to sub-1.3400 territory as the buck reigned supreme, while it was also reported that UK PM Burnham won't accept dynamic alignment of financial services regulations with the EU, backing the City of London's independence from Brussels and showing the limits of his ambitions for a much closer relationship. JPY was pressured and USD/JPY edged closer towards the 159.00 handle as US yields climbed in the aftermath of the firmer-than-expected US CPI data and hawkish Fed speak. BoC Minutes (October 28th meeting) stated regarding the path forward that the BoC recognised uncertainty did not mean inaction, but they would need to proceed carefully. They agreed that monetary policy can prevent energy prices from leading to generalised inflation and acknowledged that inflation expectations may have become more sensitive to recent price changes. SNB's Martin said Swiss inflation and the SNB policy rate remained low despite higher rates and inflationary pressure abroad. He added that elevated energy and input prices were weighing on global economic activity and driving inflation higher, while widening interest rate differentials against major currency areas had led to a depreciation of the Swiss franc. FIXED INCOME T-notes were lower and the yield curve flattened amid notable hawkish repricing after a hawkish Waller and hot CPI reignited the 50bps debate. COMMODITIES Oil prices were lower amid continued optimism over a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks. EIA STEO (November 2026): 2026 World Oil Demand: 102.4mln bpd (prev. 102.4mln bpd); 2027 104.4mln bpd (prev. 104.6mln bpd), while it saw World Oil Production in 2026 at 101.7mln bpd (prev. 101.1mln bpd) and in 2027 at 108.4mln bpd (prev. 109.6mln bpd). US official said Russian diesel was on the water and heading to market, adding that this would ease fuel prices for Americans. Iranian Deputy Oil Minister said the SPD14D platform at South Pars caught fire, while the situation is under control and the cause is under investigation. Oil smuggled from northern Iraq is being refined in Iran, according to Sky News Arabia, citing an Iraqi intelligence report. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE US Secretary of State Rubio said there was still much work to be done on Russia-Ukraine, describing the talks in Abu Dhabi as productive. He added that the goal was to expand the trilateral Ukraine talks to include European countries. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said it was too early to assess the negotiations taking place in Abu Dhabi, according to Interfax. Ukraine President Zelenskiy said the trilateral format had been constructive and quite substantive, adding that he had given his team clear instructions for further dialogue, both in the trilateral format the following day and more broadly over the coming days, while he separately commented that he is very happy with recent US messages. Ukrainian Foreign Minister said Ukraine was awaiting Russia's response to its Black Sea ceasefire proposals and was not particularly optimistic about progress. Furthermore, he urged US Secretary of State Rubio to accelerate the delivery of air-defence interceptors amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. European Council President Costa said he would also make time for a broad discussion on Ukraine at the upcoming informal European Council in Dublin, according to a letter to German Chancellor Merz. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japan's government plans to propose language for the leaders' declaration at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit affirming the importance of transparency around measures that could disrupt supply chains. The proposal would represent an indirect criticism of China, this year's APEC host, which has faced criticism over restrictions on rare-earth exports and overproduction of steel and other goods, according to Nikkei. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK PM Burnham won't accept dynamic alignment of financial services regulations with the EU, backing the City of London's independence from Brussels but nonetheless showing the limits of his ambitions for a much closer relationship, according to Bloomberg's Wickham. BoE's Lombardelli said the labour market was stuck in low gear, describing the UK as having a low-hire, low-fire labour market that created its own problems. She also said it might be necessary to raise rates further in the near term, with the balance of inflation risks tilted to the upside, a greater prospect of second-round effects and the energy shock becoming more persistent. BoE's Breeden said firms were now very good at adapting to cost shocks. ECB's Lane said it would be prudent to raise rates in December if incoming data did not materially change the outlook, while Lane warned that the bar for directional forward guidance was high and stressed the importance of consensus, noting that reaching agreement would be difficult with the use of dots. Furthermore, Lane said that energy prices were already reversing and, if that continued, headline inflation could fall while underlying inflation increased, as well as stated that markets should watch whether inflation came in stronger or weaker than projected. ECB Chief Economist Lane said framework guidance was more effective than rate forward guidance when policy rates were away from the effective lower bound, in relation to the practice of monetary policy communication. ECB's Nagel said a December rate hike was likely, adding that France needed to address its fiscal challenges and that the ECB would do what was necessary to return inflation to 2%. Nagel also commented that he did not see a risk of fiscal dominance and that market expectations were important but not the driving factor. Furthermore, he described the decline in energy prices since the US midterms as good news, adding that it was obvious rates needed to increase in December. ECB's Kazaks said the central bank might need to tighten policy in December. ECB's Moulin said policy continuity was expected if either Knot or de Cos took over as ECB President.