Newsquawk アジア太平洋デイリー・オープニングニュース - 2026年10月30日

US stocks were mixed as tech underperformed after a disappointing Alphabet earnings report (GOOG -12.5%), which missed on profit and revenue and showed worsening free cash flow, reigniting concerns over AI profitability. The weakness reversed Microsoft’s initial pop on its earnings beat and better-than-expected guidance, while Microsoft’s lower-than-expected capex weighed on its infrastructure partners, with neoclouds seeing downside (NCLD -5.7%). Software and memory names were also hit, with ServiceNow (NOW -27.0%) and Fortinet (FTNT -20.1%) underwhelming. Elsewhere, other earnings were more constructive, with beats from Eli Lilly, Merck, KLA, T-Mobile, eBay and Mastercard, while Marvell (MRVL -13.2%) sank on reports that it is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum (LITE), although futures were pressured again after-hours on weak results from the likes of Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC). USD was mixed against peers, leaving the DXY slightly down, as a lower-yield backdrop weighed on the buck. Yields across the curve traded lower in response to a PCE report that matched expectations on inflation, accompanied by shortfalls in personal income and spending growth vs forecasts. Thereafter, losses in tech extended at the cash open, igniting concerns over AI profitability following Alphabet's disappointing earnings report (EPS and revenue missed). The move soured sentiment, reversing Microsoft's initial pop higher on its earnings beat, while memory and software were also hit as names in both sectors underwhelmed on earnings, adding to pressure on US tech. Meanwhile, the advance Q3 GDP release beat expectations, with growth at 3.4% on an annualised basis, while quarterly inflation figures eased. The Atlanta Fed's initial GDPNow Q4 estimate for real GDP growth is 3.2%. Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Industrial Production, Japanese Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Tokyo CPI, Australian PPI & Private Sector Credit, BoJ Rate Decision & Governor Ueda's Press Conference, Supply from Australia. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.3% Nasdaq Comp. -1.4% DJIA -0.3% Russell 2000 +1.0% ES Dec'26 -0.9% RTY Dec'26 +1.0% NQ Dec'26 -2.5% YM Dec'26 -0.4% FX DXY -0.2% (101.93) EUR/USD +0.2% USD/JPY -0.1% GBP/USD +0.4% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +23.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 +56 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.93% German 10yr Yield 3.36% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +0.1% Brent Jan'27 +0.2% Spot Gold -1.2% LME Copper -0.9% CRYPTO Bitcoin -2.9% Ethereum -4.3% As of 21:05GMT/17:05EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include South Korean Industrial Production, Japanese Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Tokyo CPI, Australian PPI & Private Sector Credit, BoJ Rate Decision & Governor Ueda's Press Conference, Supply from Australia. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump reiterated that the Iran war would be over very soon. US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering resuming military strikes against Iran shortly after the US midterm elections if diplomacy fails, although Washington remains engaged in negotiations over a temporary peace deal, according to Semafor. Trump downplayed Vice President Vance's efforts to restart peace talks, suggesting they were related to humanitarian needs, while many within the administration remain sceptical about resuming military operations. Furthermore, an official said Trump was the most open to escalation but still had reservations, adding that the US was ready to resume combat operations shortly after the midterms if diplomacy failed and would only need an order from the president. Top US admiral briefed US President Trump on Thursday about Iran attack options, according to WSJ. Current and former officials said the administration plans to strike Iran following US elections next week, while aircraft are moving into position and MOAB use is expected, according to journalist Carla Babb. Iran has not yet responded to US Vice President Vance, while Tehran stressed that Washington must implement Iran's seven conditions and that any position undermining this framework would be unacceptable, according to Tasnim. US Vice President Vance recently exchanged correspondence with Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Major General Rezaei, although exchanges between American and Iranian officials were not exceptional and had precedents, according to Al Mayadeen. Iranian sources said the correspondence reflected Washington's inability to achieve its goals through other means, while rejecting Trump's claim that Vance's letter was a response to an Iranian request for equipment and medicine. Tehran also dismissed reports portraying the correspondence as progress in negotiations or an Iranian retreat, adding that it would disclose the message's details when appropriate and take no further steps before the seven points presented to Washington were implemented. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Tehran's conditions had been repeatedly and clearly communicated to mediators, adding that a carrot-and-stick approach would have no effect and that progress could only be achieved once Iran's seven conditions had been agreed upon. Iran has reportedly agreed in principle to the proposed mechanisms but rejected any nuclear concessions, while Tehran maintains that negotiations over its nuclear programme can only take place after the war ends, the siege is lifted, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran's IRGC Navy claimed three tankers had struck naval mines, exploded and caught fire while travelling through an unauthorised southern route of the Strait of Hormuz over the previous 24 hours, adding that the vessels had subsequently been abandoned. UKMTO said it had received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz. Several explosions were reported in Riyadh and Al-Kharj in Saudi Arabia, according to Tasnim, citing Arab sources, while Fars separately reported that the Yemeni army had targeted Aramco in a widespread wave of missile attacks. Yemeni Houthi leader said Saudi Arabia openly aligned itself with the US and the West, while adding that other regional governments and forces had also publicly aligned themselves with Washington and Western countries, according to Al Masirah. Houthi military said it carried out six operations against Saudi Arabia, including targeting the Ras Tanura refinery, Aramco’s Abqaiq facility and the Rabigh refinery with ballistic missiles. US TRADE US stocks were mixed as tech underperformed after a disappointing Alphabet earnings report (GOOG -12.5%), which missed on profit and revenue and showed worsening free cash flow, reigniting concerns over AI profitability. The weakness reversed Microsoft’s initial pop on its earnings beat and better-than-expected guidance, while Microsoft’s lower-than-expected capex weighed on its infrastructure partners, with neoclouds seeing downside (NCLD -5.7%). Software and memory names were also hit, with ServiceNow (NOW -27.0%) and Fortinet (FTNT -20.1%) underwhelming. Elsewhere, other earnings were more constructive, with beats from Eli Lilly, Merck, KLA, T-Mobile, eBay and Mastercard, while Marvell (MRVL -13.2%) sank on reports that it is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum (LITE), although futures were pressured again after-hours on weak results from the likes of Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC). SPX -0.30% at 7,721, NDX -1.38% at 29,403, DJI -0.25% at 52,343, RUT +0.96% at 2,858. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump said Canada has been treating the US nicely lately. US administration has reportedly pledged to ease tariffs on automakers that commit to increasing domestic manufacturing, amid discussions aimed at securing a USD 4bln Audi assembly plant in Georgia, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing sources. European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU was discussing making Canada its first associate member, adding that Canada could not become a full EU member because of geography, but both sides wanted to deepen ties to the highest possible level. China has reportedly made its first inquiry for US wheat since the Trump-Xi summit, with state-owned crop trader COFCO enquiring about US soft red winter wheat for delivery to China. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump said it had been a great morning from the standpoint of GDP, while he also stated that the Federal Reserve hated cutting interest rates. US President Trump posted that the US economy is booming at 3.4% growth, with consumer spending and business investment way up and equipment investment up 21%, while he added that core inflation remained low. US National Economic Council Director Hassett said inflation was broadly in line with expectations and GDP was heading towards 4% growth, while adding that a supply-side boom was putting downward pressure on prices. Hassett said Trump held Fed Chair Warsh in high regard and that there was room to bring inflation under control. US National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Federal Reserve would probably act if October inflation proved very high, while he declined to comment on Fed Governor Cook. Furthermore, he praised Warsh and said the committee appeared to have made a data-driven decision, although September inflation had been above expectations. Hassett also noted that 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities were indicating that the Fed would bring inflation down to 2.1%. US Vice President Vance will hold a press conference in St. Cloud, Minnesota, on Friday to announce a new finding in the administration's fraud investigation in the state, accompanied by members of the White House fraud task force, according to CNN, citing a source. DATA RECAP US GDP Growth Rate Advance (Q3 QQ): 3.4% (exp. 3.2%, prev. 2.2%). US GDP Price Index Advance (Q3 QQ): 2.2% (exp. 3.2%, prev. 6.1%). US Core PCE Prices Advance (Q3 QQ): 2.5% (exp. 2.4%, prev. 3.3%). US Real Consumer Spending Advance (Q3 QQ): 3.8% (prev. 3.8%). US PCE Prices Advance (Q3 QQ): 2.1% (exp. 3.4%, prev. 5%). US GDP Sales Advance (Q3 QQ): 1.7% (prev. 2.8%). US PCE Price Index (Sep MM): 0.5% (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.3%). US PCE Price Index (Sep YY): 3.6% (exp. 3.6%, prev. 3.4%). US Core PCE Index (Sep MM): 0.3% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%). US Core PCE Index (Sep YY): 3.1% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.0%). US Personal Income (Sep MM): 0.2% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%). US Personal Spending (Sep MM): 0.5% (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.9%). US Real Personal Spending (Sep MM): 0% (prev. 0.5%). US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/24): 194.0K (exp. 199K, prev. 195.0K). US Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/17): 1,701.0K (exp. 1,720K, prev. 1,722.0K). FX USD was mixed against peers, leaving the DXY slightly down, as a lower-yield backdrop weighed on the buck. Yields across the curve traded lower in response to a PCE report that matched expectations on inflation, accompanied by shortfalls in personal income and spending growth vs forecasts. Thereafter, losses in tech extended at the cash open, igniting concerns over AI profitability following Alphabet's disappointing earnings report (EPS and revenue missed). The move soured sentiment, reversing Microsoft's initial pop higher on its earnings beat, while memory and software were also hit as names in both sectors underwhelmed on earnings, adding to pressure on US tech. Meanwhile, the advance Q3 GDP release beat expectations, with growth at 3.4% on an annualised basis, while quarterly inflation figures eased. The Atlanta Fed's initial GDPNow Q4 estimate for real GDP growth is 3.2%. EUR was firmer against the buck following the ECB's decision to hold rates as expected. It was initially soft heading into the meeting, after the ECB confirmed President Lagarde will step down on February 7th, 2027. Nonetheless, the initial EUR weakness reversed when President Lagarde said the early stages of the pricing chain point to upward pressures, lifting EUR/USD from 1.1125 to 1.1137. A further hawkish move followed when she said the situation could have warranted a hike, adding that today's decision does not indicate the ECB will not hike at its next meeting. Later, ECB source reports (via Bloomberg and Reuters) indicated that policymakers will raise rates at the December meeting. EUR/USD now trades around 1.1168. GBP was the best performer in the aftermath of the UK Budget, despite light newsflow for the UK. JPY traded indecisively ahead of the BoJ rate decision, with rates expected to remain at 1.25%, while a slew of data is also scheduled for the Asia-Pac session, including the latest Tokyo CPI figures. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled higher and the yield curve steepened as front-end yields declined following US data and the ECB rate decision. COMMODITIES Oil prices saw two-way trade with early pressure amid renewed mediation hopes, although prices later rebounded as reports continued to highlight the potential for a resumption of strikes against Iran following the midterm elections and with Houthis conducting several operations against Saudi oil facilities. US DoE said five companies, including Trafigura, Gunvor and Vitol, are taking SPR oil loans, with the companies to borrow 16.75mln barrels of crude from the SPR out of 17mln barrels offered. France's Finance Minister said Europe would release 42mln bbls of oil over the next 3 months. Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban until year-end, according to reports citing sources, while using a quota-based export system for individual companies to meet its obligations to the US. QatarEnergy CEO said Qatar was purchasing US LNG and holding discussions with other suppliers to establish trading and arbitrage hedges against potential future disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to reports. Iran and Belarus signed an agreement to expand bilateral cooperation in the energy sector, according to IRNA. Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi mine suspended underground operations. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian President Putin said Russia supported steps to restore relations with European countries during a call with the leaders of Norway and Finland, adding that Moscow did not want a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz crisis to occur in the Baltic Sea. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine has information on new planned Russian ballistic missile strikes and needs the means to counter them. Russian Defence Ministry said a dry cargo ship carrying military and dual-use cargo for Ukraine's Armed Forces was damaged at the port of Odesa, according to RIA. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said Japan would introduce electricity and gas support measures from December through February, while the government would raise its target gasoline pump price by JPY 5 per litre each month from December through spring. China's Gaming Regulator approved 183 domestic games and 12 imported games (prev. 206 total in September). EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged as expected, with the deposit rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%, while it said financing conditions had tightened since the Governing Council's previous meeting, which was likely to weigh on inflation and growth. ECB President Lagarde said rising energy prices posed risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to growth, while she added that the Bank remained well positioned to navigate uncertainty. She also stated that policy would be set on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting basis, without pre-committing to a rate path, and that the ECB stood ready to adjust all instruments to achieve its inflation objectives. ECB President Lagarde said during the Q&A that the Governing Council had debated whether a rate hike was appropriate but decided to hold rates amid uncertainty and unchanged underlying inflation, while she added that the Bank was well positioned to wait for incoming information and that a measured approach was appropriate. Lagarde described the decision as a no-hike decision and stressed that they did not rule out an increase at the next meeting if incoming developments warranted one, as well as noted that price stability remained the ECB's guiding principle and that she was focused on threats to price and financial stability. Furthermore, Lagarde said the ECB was not changing its policy on bond redemptions and had no arrangements to rebalance them, while she commented that the process to identify her successor had already started, with plenty of good candidates available, and the institution remained solid. ECB officials are reportedly prepared to raise interest rates in December, according to reports. ECB policymakers reportedly see a rate hike in December followed by a pause, while new ECB staff estimates suggest rising bond yields would reduce growth by a cumulative 100bps and inflation by 90bps in 2027–28 compared with the September baseline, according to reports citing sources. ECB confirmed that President Lagarde would step down on February 7th, 2027. ECB President Lagarde has reportedly been considered as a potential next head of the World Economic Forum, although her attention appears to remain focused on France, according to Politico. UK Treasury confirmed Chancellor Healey's remarks were accurate and that the government would not reduce the welfare bill during the current Parliament, adding that the reduction would take place in 2030/31, during the next Parliament, according to Bloomberg's Alex Wickham. DATA RECAP Belgian GDP Growth Rate Advance (Q3 QQ): 0.3% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0%). European Economic Sentiment (Oct): 96.9 (exp. 97.5, prev. 97.5). European Industrial Sentiment (Oct): -3.4 (exp. -3.8, prev. -3.9). European Services Sentiment (Oct): 5.3 (exp. 5.9, prev. 5.9). European Consumer Confidence Final (Oct): -17.9 (exp. -17.9, prev. -16.5). European Selling Price Expectations (Oct): 24.8 (prev. 20.8). European Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct): 33.9 (prev. 34.7).