Newsquawk デイリー・アジア太平洋オープニングニュース - 2026年11月4日

US stocks were mixed with the Nasdaq leading gains while the S&P 500 and Russell also advanced, although the Dow Jones lagged and the equal-weighted S&P 500 declined. The Nasdaq was supported by a revival in tech stocks following recent pressure amid ongoing AI funding concerns and a slew of weak tech earnings, despite another disappointing update from Apple (AAPL) overnight. Apple shares closed lower after its margin guidance missed expectations, while on the call, the company also increased its manufacturing purchase obligations by USD 33bln to USD 90bln to help combat the memory crunch and secure supplies over the longer term. AI-related names firmed, with gains seen in the NCLD, DRAM and SOXX ETFs. Crude prices were choppy but ultimately settled lower, with losses driven by reports that the US had agreed to accept the MoU that Qatar presented to Iran on Monday, with both sides reportedly making concessions regarding the nuclear programme and frozen funds. The reports sent crude prices tumbling to fresh session lows, but a lack of confirmation, followed by pushback from Iranian officials, saw a large portion of the move reverse. USD was more or less flat on Tuesday amid mixed performances of the dollar's major counterparts and as geopolitics dominated headlines ahead of the US midterm election results overnight. At the time of writing, Polymarket sees a 74% chance of a Democratic sweep, with a 95% chance of the party winning the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Several key Senate races will be watched, particularly whether Texas turns blue. On data, US JOLTS job openings for September jumped to 7.523mln from 7.190mln, well above the expected 7.10mln. Within the release, the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, while the job openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Monetary Base, New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices, Chinese RatingDog Services & Composite PMIs, Supply from Australia, US Midterm Election Results. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 +0.4% Nasdaq Comp. +0.8% DJIA -0.4% Russell 2000 +0.4% ES Dec'26 +0.5% RTY Dec'26 +0.1% NQ Dec'26 +1.0% YM Dec'26 -0.6% FX DXY +0.1% (101.86) EUR/USD +0.1% USD/JPY +0.5% GBP/USD +0.1% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -14.5 ticks 10yr Bund Dec'26 -28 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.97% German 10yr Yield 3.31% ENERGY & METALS WTI Dec'26 +0.4% Brent Jan'27 -0.3% Spot Gold -0.4% LME Copper -2.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin +1.5% Ethereum +1.9% As of 21:50GMT/16:50EST LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Japanese Monetary Base, New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices, Chinese RatingDog Services & Composite PMIs, Supply from Australia, US Midterm Election Results. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump said the US has total control of the Middle East and that Israel has been a helper, adding that "we will see" regarding Iran after the midterm elections and that he was not looking to kill lots of people but would do what has to be done. US reportedly approved the draft memorandum of understanding presented to Iran by the Qatari delegation, according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed citing sources close to the mediation team, while mediators also briefed Saudi Arabia and the UAE and received their approval. Washington and Tehran have reportedly made concessions on Iran's nuclear programme and frozen funds, with discussions now focused on a first step towards an interim agreement and the resumption of negotiations, and both sides considering announcing an agreement simultaneously. US-Iran announcements are reportedly expected to be made in stages and simultaneously, with Tehran expected to announce a nuclear concession in exchange for Washington releasing part of Iran's frozen funds, according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. The approach is intended to allow both sides to claim victory, potentially following the format of the June memorandum of understanding. US informed Qatari mediators that it approves the submitted proposal, with the team now awaiting Iran's response after receiving it on Sunday, according to Al Arabiya citing a senior source. US and Iranian officials are reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and preventing a renewed conflict, after Qatari mediators held talks described as positive with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal aimed at advancing negotiations, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the discussions. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said efforts to bridge US-Iran differences remain ongoing, adding that the mediation team had returned to Doha after travelling to Tehran on Monday night. The spokesperson said there was regional consensus on avoiding escalation, both sides remained committed to mediation, and there was still hope for an agreement that could set the conditions for future negotiations. Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran solely to receive Iran's response to the latest proposal rather than hold further discussions, while political figures within Iran are pushing for de-escalation, according to Al Arabiya sources. Israel has shared intelligence with the US suggesting Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries, prompting alarm among some American officials and deep scepticism among others, according to the New York Times citing sources. Some US officials reportedly view the intelligence as part of a pressure campaign by Israeli PM Netanyahu to persuade the Trump administration to resume major combat operations, while others believe the threats should be taken seriously amid wider warnings of Iranian preparations to target US interests. US Central Command reportedly has a plan to strike Iran as early as Wednesday, following the midterm elections, with three aircraft carriers in the region, according to US officials. Iranian President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had authorised negotiations, according to Al Hadath. Iranian negotiating delegation spokesperson said messages continue to be exchanged through intermediaries, according to Al Hadath. Iranian senior official said mediators were making concerted efforts to narrow differences between Tehran and Washington, while another Iranian official said there was no deadline for exchanging messages through intermediaries or reviewing responses. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected a Qatari proposal to establish direct contact between US diplomats and the Iranian delegation that visited Doha, according to Aram News citing diplomatic sources. Rezaei also said Washington's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, calling on the US to explicitly address all seven of Tehran's conditions and stating that the Strait of Hormuz would only reopen if those demands were met. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected the latest US position on a deal to restore the ceasefire and begin negotiations, according to Axios's Ravid. Iran remains interested in diplomacy but is unwilling to make concessions, with its seven demands needing to be addressed before negotiations can advance, according to an Iranian diplomatic source cited by Al Arabiya. The source stated that the engagement did not mean abandoning those conditions and that Tehran had no trust in Washington, which continued to launch attacks while discussing negotiations. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran was not opposed to diplomacy and viewed dialogue as a means of advancing its national interests, but stressed that Iran approached diplomatic processes with maximum caution and scepticism, adding that any understanding would depend on a definitive commitment to ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said previous experiences prevented Tehran from having any optimism about Washington's commitment to diplomacy. Iranian Foreign Ministry said the country was now in a state of war following the targeting of Qeshm Island. Iranian political source said US military threats were hindering progress towards resolving the conflict, according to RIA Novosti. Iranian assessments indicate that a return to war is now the most likely scenario, according to Al Arabiya citing sources. Iran has updated its list of potential targets for retaliatory strikes in response to possible US military action, according to RIA citing sources. Iran is reportedly prepared to respond to any renewed US aggression beyond the geographical limits of the Middle East, according to RIA citing an Iranian political source. Iran's Basij deputy chief Qorayshi said the force would carry out the Supreme Leader's orders and would no longer face restrictions on missile targets or range, according to IRIB. Iranian lawmaker Moghadam said the Defence Ministry and IRGC were prepared to initially produce missiles with a range of 6,000km, with plans to extend reach to 10,000km, 12,000km and 15,000km, potentially placing US territory within range, according to SNN. Explosions were reportedly heard in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sabereen News. IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines, claiming the vessels had been travelling through unauthorised routes with their navigation and identification systems switched off, according to IRIB. Gunfire was reportedly heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, while sources said firing was carried out at violating vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tasnim. Yemen's Houthi military spokesperson said the group launched a drone attack on Abha International Airport, disrupting air traffic, and a ballistic missile strike on Khamis Mushait Air Base, claiming direct hits on both targets. Yemeni armed forces reportedly attacked vital facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, according to Sabereen News. US TRADE US stocks were mixed with the Nasdaq leading gains while the S&P 500 and Russell also advanced, although the Dow Jones lagged and the equal-weighted S&P 500 declined. The Nasdaq was supported by a revival in tech stocks following recent pressure amid ongoing AI funding concerns and a slew of weak tech earnings, despite another disappointing update from Apple (AAPL) overnight. Apple shares closed lower after its margin guidance missed expectations, while on the call, the company also increased its manufacturing purchase obligations by USD 33bln to USD 90bln to help combat the memory crunch and secure supplies over the longer term. AI-related names firmed, with gains seen in the NCLD, DRAM and SOXX ETFs. Crude prices were choppy but ultimately settled lower, with losses driven by reports that the US had agreed to accept the MoU that Qatar presented to Iran on Monday, with both sides reportedly making concessions regarding the nuclear programme and frozen funds. The reports sent crude prices tumbling to fresh session lows, but a lack of confirmation, followed by pushback from Iranian officials, saw a large portion of the move reverse. SPX +0.37% at 7,569, NDX +0.68% at 28,180, DJI -0.38% at 51,786, RUT +0.35% at 2,816. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE China is reportedly proposing new rules governing the enforcement of export controls on dual-use goods. EU is reportedly planning changes to its single market in an effort to reduce its reliance on China. NOTABLE HEADLINES US DoJ is ramping up a criminal investigation into the Alaska US Senate race, issuing more than 100 subpoenas and at least 20 target letters to Democrats, according to ABC citing sources. DATA RECAP US Factory Orders (Sep) M/M 1.8% vs. exp. 1.2% (prev. 0.1%) US Factory Orders ex-Transportation (Sep) 1.3% vs. exp. 0.5% (prev. 0.4%) US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) 7.523M vs. exp. 7.10M (prev. 7.190M) FX USD was more or less flat on Tuesday amid mixed performances of the dollar's major counterparts and as geopolitics dominated headlines ahead of the US midterm election results overnight. At the time of writing, Polymarket sees a 74% chance of a Democratic sweep, with a 95% chance of the party winning the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Several key Senate races will be watched, particularly whether Texas turns blue. On data, US JOLTS job openings for September jumped to 7.523mln from 7.190mln, well above the expected 7.10mln. Within the release, the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, while the job openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. EUR traded indecisively and returned to flat territory, with little reaction seen to the latest hawkish rhetoric from ECB officials, including from Nagel, who stated that a rate hike in December was very likely to be necessary, warning that inflationary pressures had been higher than expected in September and were approaching the adverse scenario. GBP eked slight gains in choppy trade to remain above the 1.3400 level as catalysts for the UK remain light ahead of Thursday's expected BoE rate hike. JPY weakened throughout the day with USD/JPY gaining momentum after breaking above the 158.00 level and as Japanese participants were away on Tuesday due to the holiday closure. SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressures in September were slightly higher than in June. BoC Governor Macklem reiterated that further policy tightening may be necessary, warning that the inflation outlook had deteriorated, while he added that the Middle East conflict had pushed global oil prices higher and prices are expected to stay elevated for longer, raising costs for Canadian motorists and businesses. FIXED INCOME T-notes settled lower and yields rose, with oil choppy on mixed US/Iran reporting and stronger-than-expected JOLTS ahead of the midterms. COMMODITIES Oil prices were lower but settled well off today's worst levels after benchmarks initially tumbled on positive US-Iran developments, including reports that the US has approved the draft MoU the Qatari delegation presented to Iran on Monday, and with Washington and Tehran said to have made concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme and frozen funds. However, oil pared the majority of its losses following a lack of confirmation and eventually some pushback, with Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei stating the US response to Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing, and that they must fully and explicitly address Iran’s seven conditions and act upon them for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. US Energy Secretary Wright said overnight strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island had not affected oil flows, adding that more refined products were being supplied from the Arabian Gulf and additional volumes would come from India. Wright also said the best cure for high prices is high prices, arguing that elevated prices encourage supply growth and are contributing to higher production. Eight tankers carrying 300,800 tonnes of Russian diesel are being monitored for potential voyages to the US, with seven listing the US as their destination and arrivals expected from November 7th, according to Ukrainian sources cited by an RFE journalist. US and Venezuela are discussing a new aluminium cargo as the two countries seek to revive trade ties. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE US First Lady Melania Trump is reportedly planning to bring together Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the White House and deliver remarks on the Oleshky ceasefire on Thursday. Russia's Kremlin is reportedly seeking further easing of US sanctions following an agreement between Trump and Putin on Russian diesel supplies, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Kremlin spokesperson said Russia would eventually need to discuss the future security framework with the EU, though it was important to establish which parties would be involved. EU may consider opening negotiations with Russia once the implications of the US midterm elections become clearer, according to TASS citing a source, while it was also reported that the EU is not currently discussing appointing a negotiator to engage with Russia and that no substantive talks on the matter have taken place in recent months. OTHER The Trump administration is negotiating a status of forces agreement with Venezuela that could establish the basis for a long-term US military presence in the country, according to the New York Times citing US officials. Greenland's Parliament approved a security agreement with the US. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC said it would maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure ample liquidity, according to Xinhua. US, Chinese and Russian officials are discussing a possible trilateral meeting between Trump, Xi and Putin later this month on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, according to the FT citing sources, while it remains unclear whether discussions concern a three-way summit or separate bilateral meetings, and sources suggested Washington was pressing Beijing to agree to a meeting. US officials have reportedly held up approval for American chipmaking equipment needed by SK Hynix (SKHY/000660 KS) to expand production in China, according to source reports. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB's Kocher said it was crucial to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. ECB's Moulin said they must ensure higher energy prices do not feed through into broader inflation. ECB's Nagel said a rate hike in December was very likely to be necessary, warning that inflationary pressures had been higher than expected in September and were approaching the adverse scenario, while he said policymakers could and must prevent the energy price shock from triggering broader-based inflation. Furthermore, he said he is confident France will get a grip on its budget issues, which is not a task for monetary policy. ECB's Sleijpen said the Iran shock is more persistent than earlier thought, although they don't really see second-round effects yet. Swedish parliament rejected the Centre Party leader's candidacy for prime minister.