Newsquawk欧州市場ラップ－2026年11月9日

European bourses gained; NVDA shares slump c. 6% after CEO Huang's affair and subsequent probe. DXY pressured with G10s stronger across the board; Kiwi outperforms as the centre-right narrowly leads. Crude benchmarks slip amidst US-Iran deal optimism; reports suggest VP Vance could meet Iranian General Rezaei. EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.1%) opened flat but then gradually moved higher as the session progressed; major indices are set to end the day firmer between 0.6-2.3%; the outperformer being the FTSE MIB. Strength across Europe today was facilitated by cooling energy prices (on hopes of US-Iran progress). European sectors were initially mixed, but then displayed a positive bias. Basic Resources benefited from gains in the underlying sector, whilst Banks were buoyed by post-earning strength in UniCredit (+6.5%, profit beat and raised guidance), and after Credit Agricole (+0.3%) pitched a merger of its Italian business with Banco BPM (+10.5%). To the downside resided Consumer Products, which were dragged lower by losses in the Luxury space following cooler-than-expected Chinese CPI metrics. US equities are broadly firmer. Focus in the region remains firmly on the Nvidia situation, with shares lower by c. 6%. This comes after CEO Huang had an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, which has led the company to launch an investigation into him. Investors will now question what/if any company secrets were leaked, and whether he remains fit to stay at the company. Elsewhere, Google (+2%) gains after rolling out 2 new versions of TPU systems to challenge Nvidia. FX Snapshot: G10s were stronger against the USD throughout the London session; pressure which can be attributed to cooling energy prices, amidst increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. A Qatari official said that reports of US-Iran proposal details were false, but confirmed that talks were ongoing. Interestingly, Mehr News, citing a Turkish intelligence agency, suggested that US VP Vance will meet Iran’s General Rezaei next week. DXY is set to end the London day at the bottom end of a 101.78 to 102.28 range; the index breached its 21-DMA at 101.95, with the next support line residing around 101.50. Geopols will take centre stage for the remainder of the day, but attention will then turn to the US CPI report tomorrow. The Kiwi was the clear outperformer today, in the aftermath of the region’s national general election. The centre-right bloc is currently narrowly ahead, but may require support from the Opportunity Party; it will likely sit outside government, instead favouring policy concessions. A centre-right victory is widely viewed as pro-business and will allow the RBNZ to continue with its existing mandate; some on the left have called for the Bank to reinstate a dual mandate to focus equally on inflation and employment, which is regarded as dovish for the NZD. FIXED A choppy session for fixed, but ultimately bullish. Initially, modest gains were seen amid early energy pressure and AI/Tech downside on the Nvidia situation, with the name lower by 6% in early indications, hitting the NQ by around a percent at that point. However, this then unwound as the above reversed somewhat. In the hours since, energy has taken a hit (see Commodities) on geopolitical developments. Updates have lifted Bunds by around 30 ticks at best, Gilts by over 50 in the typical larger reaction seen to energy moves and USTs by a handful of ticks but comfortably clear of 107-00 and at a 107-08+ high. Geopolitics/energy aside, developments have been and are scheduled to remain light. In brief, Europe digests updates to the French minimum wage ahead of further potential strike action. Gilts look forward to the release of the Milburn NEET review next week, according to Politico. While USTs have a handful of data points and supply to contend with. Qualcomm (QCOM) files to sell debt in five parts. IBM (IBM) to offer multiple series of yen‑denominated noted, according to an SEC filing. Akamai (AKAM) files to sell USD 1.1bln of unsecured convertible bonds due 2028 and USD 1.1bln due 2031. HSBC has cut US Treasuries to Neutral (prev. Strong Overweight). The EU has mandated banks to tap its October 2031 and October 2046 lines, IFR reported. COMMODITIES An increasingly bearish session for energy, as various reports suggest that the US is working to end the conflict and Iran appears to be willing to compromise on the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for assets being unfrozen. However, the Hayom source made clear that there is no Iranian willingness to talk on the nuclear issue. WTI and Brent fell by over USD 4/bbl, down to USD 86.49/bbl and USD 93.32/bbl respectively. The space began the European day lower, after Trump said it was highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action. However, Iranian language in the early morning was punchy. Since then, Hayom reported that Iran was dropping demands around Hormuz, in exchange for funds being unfrozen and the naval blockade removed; though, thereafter denied. With talks taking the same shape as the May MoU; despite that ultimately breaking down, and numerous Tier 1 US officials being against it. Further downside came as Iraq reportedly presented proposals to end the conflict to Trump, who also had them convey proposals to Tehran. Despite a Qatari official denying the US-Iran proposal details, subsequent reports suggested that US VP Vance and Iranian General Rezaei will be in Qatar next week. Overall, the mood music between the US and Iran is positive, and Vance being involved and potentially directly with Iran is another significant step to a breakthrough. However, the earlier report suggesting that Iran would not even discuss the nuclear point could be a significant hurdle. XAU bid as a function of the pressure seen in yields across the curve on the price implications of the energy selloff. Action that has been sufficient to lift XAU to a USD 4134/oz high, firmer by over USD 50/oz. Further, the yellow metal remains underpinned by the PBoC being a buyer for the 24th consecutive month. Iraqi PM said the country plans to raise oil output to 7.0mln BPD by 2030 and to 10.0mln BPD by 2032. Citi maintains its aluminium price target at USD 3k/T for the 0–3-month window, outlook maintained at neutral. EUROPEAN DATA German Trade Balance (Sep) 15.6B vs. Exp. 19.2B (Prev. 19.5B). German Exports (Sep MM) 2.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.8%). German Imports (Sep MM) 4.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.9%). Norwegian PPI (Oct YY) 59.0% (Prev. 48.8%). NOTABLE HEADLINES French unions call for additional strikes on November 17th. French Labour Minister said they will be increasing the minimum wage by 1.6%, effective from December 1st. UK Government's Milburn NEET review is to be published next week, Politico reported citing sources. TRADE/TARIFFS Japan and Vietnam to accelerate cooperation on critical minerals, Kyodo reported; piece suggests leaders discussed early realisation of LNG project. China is to extend the suspension of export controls targeting US firms for two months, reports suggest. CENTRAL BANKS Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and New York open pilot survey of private‑credit market on November 9th. Eurogroup Chair said it would be ideal to decide the next ECB president before year‑end. Brazilian economists forecast Selic rate at end-2026 at 13.75% (prev. 13.5%), keeps 2027 rate outlook at 12.5%. Banxico governor said the central bank has been considering rate cuts since September, El Financiero reported. Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (w/e Nov 6) 452.9bln (prev. 460.3bln); Domestic Sight Deposits 429.2bln (prev. 436.9bln). GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE EU Foreign Representative Kallas said Russia has been pretending to negotiate, not seeing any good will from Russia. Expect some European nations to provide details on the hoax bomb threats in the coming days. Russian delegation departs for Abu Dhabi, reported RIA. US Envoy Kushner said US President Trump is determined to bring an end to this horrible war, in relation to the Ukraine-Russia war. "We are working hard to find a negotiated solution that can deliver lasting peace and create the conditions for a sovereign, secure, and prosperous Ukraine within a more stable European security environment.". "This is an extraordinarily difficult and complicated conflict. We recognize the difficult decisions ahead and are approaching these discussions with determination and realism. Our hope is to make meaningful progress, establish a practical pathway forward, and help create the conditions for a lasting peace.". "Before beginning the two days of trilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi, I will meet with our partners from Ukraine, the EU, NATO, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy to continue the close consultation and coordination we have undertaken on European security and Ukraine’s postwar future over the past several weeks.". Oil refinery in Russia's Leningrad region set on fire following a drone attack, according to the regional governor. MIDDLE EAST Qatar will host US Vice President Vance and Iran's General Rezaei next week, Mehr News reported citing Ankara. "The head of the Turkish intelligence agency described the meeting as an important opportunity to open up the negotiations". Fars denies earlier story from Israel about Iran-US talks; said that the negotiation on opening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for USD 8bln in Iranian assets is false. According to Fars' information, Iran insists on the seven conditions for any talks, and any talks are acceptable only within the framework set for Tehran. Iraqi PM met with Iran's Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf, reported Fars; the visit took place on Friday, and the discussion focused on Iraq's efforts to end the war between Iran and the US and had no connection to other issues. Qatari official said that reports of US-Iran proposal details are false, talks are ongoing. Iraqi PM presented proposals to end the Iran war during his phone conversation with US President Trump, reported Al Hadath citing sources. Trump expressed his approval of proposals presented by the Iraqi PM during the phone conversations. Trump asked the Iraqi PM to convey proposals to Tehran aimed at ending the war. Trump asked the Iraqi PM to play a mediating role with Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran will never consider exporting enriched uranium, reported IRNA. Iran has reportedly dropped a demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and collect transit fees, Hayom reported citing officials; however, they are unwilling to discuss "or even signal a willingness to enter negotiations" on nuclear issues. Under the agreement, USD 8bln in frozen Iranian funds currently held within Qatar would be unfrozen. With the US to lift the naval/economic blockade of Iran, in exchange for a halt to Iranian attacks on vessels belonging to the Gulf states. US VP Vance, alongside envoys Witkoff and Kushner, are advancing negotiations to an agreement similar to the May MoU. Source adds that the Qatar Emir's arrival signalled progress. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Secretary of State Rubio and War Secretary Hegseth all oppose a deal similar to the May agreement. US VP Vance is pushing for an agreement to end the war early 2027, "almost regardless of the cost". Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran's two-day proposal is the most reasonable proposal on the table; said Iran will not be compromising on its national interests. said the US must end its naval blockade and the war for diplomacy to proceed. Iron Gate taskforce is deflection from the US midterm results. Iran's Army Spokesman Akraminia said "Iran's military doctrine is moving towards aggression upon the order of the Commander-in-Chief". Iran's military doctrine is moving towards aggression upon the order of the Commander-in-Chief. If the enemy commits any evil, we will have an immediate, effective and unrestricted response. Clashes reportedly continue between Yemeni government forces and the Houthis in Taiz, Lahj, Al-Jawf and Marib, Al Araby TV reported. China's Middle East envoy meets Iran's Deputy National Security Council Secretary during a visit to Tehran, Al Hadath reported.